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HOW I MADE 2 MILLION IN THE STOCK MARKET SUMMARY | NICOLAS DARVAS - YouTube
Channel: The Swedish Investor
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Nicholas Darvas was a dancer, self-taught investor and author. He's most famous for turning
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$10,000 into 2 millions trading in the stock market over the course of 6.5 years.
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He did this without any prior experience as a trader and later
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he wrote "How I made $2,000,000 in the stock market" where he outlined his strategy for success. Today,
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I will summarize the most important advice from this book.
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Takeaway number 1: Kill your darlings
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One of the strongest and most dangerous
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biases in stock market investing is when you develop a liking for your investments. No matter if it's because a friend
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recommended it, it was your virgin investment or you made a good profit from it, it's a treacherous attitude to develop.
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You must become an impartial
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diagnostician. Don't identify yourself with any stock. Don't fall in love with them when they rise or become angry with them (and your surroundings)
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when they fall. Another tip,
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which doesn't come from this book, is that when in doubt - sell!
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Judging a stock which you don't own will allow your view to be much clearer
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Also, you don't burn any bridges
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by selling because you can always rebuy later. When I've been using this strategy myself I have never bought back the stock again. Ever.
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Takeaway number 2: Buy on strong positive trends & rising volumes.
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Continuing rising prices in a stock often means that some people know something that you don't. By buying into the trend you will benefit from these
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fundamentals without actually knowing anything about them yourself. Look also for rising trading volumes. If a group of Swedes decides to take a few breaks
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during the working day, it's nothing out of the ordinary.
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They are probably just taking a fika or two. On the other hand, if you see a group of Japanese do the same thing,
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it's definitely something to watch carefully! Just like a stock that used to behave in one way
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but suddenly changes could be of interest. The author talks about a techno fundamentalist theory,
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which is a combination of technical and fundamental assessment. Before buying a stock,
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it should have the aforementioned increase in price and trading volumes.
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But the buy should only occur when improved earnings power could be given as the fundamental reason for these increases.
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Improved earnings power is anticipated from companies that belong to new vigorous infant industry. And sure, for this to happen
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you will never buy the stock at its bottom, and that's not the point with this approach either.
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The point is to buy high and sell even higher.
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Takeaway number 3: Cut your losses short. Let your winners run.
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There's a popular saying in Wall Street, which goes something like this: "You cannot go broke by taking a profit."
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It's true that you will win that specific battle if you take a profit,
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but will you win the war? To follow "you cannot go broke by taking a profit" is counterproductive in the stock market. You will
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do the exact opposite of what this takeaway suggests. You will cut your winner short and let your losers run. Do you think
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that it sounds like a profitable strategy to win small and loose big? No x 5. Agreed.
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So how do you cut your losses short then? A great tool to maximize your chances of achieving this is by using a trailing stop-loss.
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This is a technical tool that your online broker will offer which allows you to set a predefined price at which you will sell your stock.
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This price will rise as the price of the stock rises and therefore it's called training.
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What this forces you to do is to accept your mistakes early.
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If you find yourself in hold - stop digging!
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Remember to keep the trailing stop at such a distance that meaningless swings in the stock price doesn't touch your investment off.
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The volatility of a stock is a great indicator for how far behind you should trail your stops.
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An additional benefit of trailing stop-losses is that you will automatically be stepped out during crisis. As we've discussed earlier,
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you cannot foresee crashes, but with a system like this such an assessment become unnecessary. The market might change for the worse,
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but by then, you'll already be out of it.
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And how do you let your winners run?When you have a profit on a stock the instinctive reaction is to sell. You don't want
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to lose you gains, right?
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It's a tough decision to take psychologically. If you make the decision to sell in an upward trend,
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you must think that the stock has reached its peak.
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But you should never try to sell at the top! Anyone who claims to be able to do this consistently
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is just lying. If you sell a stock while rising
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it's a pure guess, because you cannot know how far it will go.
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This would be no cleverer a guess than anticipating that H&M would stop its international expansion after its hundredth open store.
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You can also guess that the expansion would stop after 200 stores or 500 stores.
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What would you be wrong,
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if you guessed any of these figures?
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Because the Persson family would be fools if they stopped the expansion at 100, 200 of 500 stores when all of them are constantly
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selling out and people are crying for H&M clothes all over the world.
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It is only when they start to notice increasing inventories and empty stores that they'd consider halting the expansion.
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This is also the time when you're trailing stop-loss will force you to leave the investment.
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Together, takeaway 2 and 3 lays the foundation for the "Box Theory",
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which is the strategy that Darvas used to trade stocks successfully in the market.
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He creates a box around a specific stock. For instance, a 7/11 box around this Swedish stock called Fingerprint Cards, back March 2015.
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If the stock moves into a higher box,
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he would buy it. In Fingerprint's case, it soon moved upwards into say an 11/15 box.
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This happened in April
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2015 and would have caused Darvas to buy. The stock may oscillate inside the box,
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or establish a higher one, but never go back into a lower.
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The lower bound of the box is therefore a point when you sell the stock.
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Darvas would have kept placing boxes on top of each other until December of
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2015, where he would have stepped out at around 110. This is equal to a 900% gain over 8 months.
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Stocks do not move at random. They have a defined upward or downward trend which, once established, tends to continue.
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Takeaway number 4: Create your own stock log book. Write down reasons for buying and reasons for selling.
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There's a saying that "a mistake repeated more than once, is not a mistake,
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it's a decision" A logbook will ensure that you don't take any bad decisions in the market because you will change your behavior while they
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are still just mistakes.
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It will make sure that you are
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consistently improving and it also makes it easier to stay the course if the market is going against you. Your log book will communicate
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what a normal book can never teach you. Much like a person never becomes a good driver by only reading about
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accelerators, steering wheels and brakes all day. Get into the market and learn from your own mistakes.
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Here's an example. Date: 16/8-2018.
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Type: Buy. Stock: Ericsson. Price: $7.9.
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Reason for buying: Increased volumes, strong positive trend and great expectations for 5G. Date 25/2-2020.
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Type: Sell. Stock: Ericsson. Price: $17.1.
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Reason for selling: Stepped out by stop-loss after a great upward trend turned downwards. Date: 16/8-2018.
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Type: Buy. Stock: GM.
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Price: $36.6. Reason for buying: My cab driver told me that GM is developing a new electrical car. Yippie!
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Date: 1/12-2019. Type: Sell. Stock: GM. Price: $15.7.
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Reason for selling: Oh my god. I should never have trusted my cab driver. I should have used stop-losses. In hindsight,
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I think I should have bought Tesla instead.
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Start to learn from your mistakes early as they are less costly when you are young. Better to make a mistake at twenty that costs
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a few weeks of work during the summer vacation, than doing them at 50 at the cost of half of your 401k.
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Takeaway number 5: Be the lone wolf - stay detached.
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To be truly successful in the market, you can't be the confused excited lamb milling around with others.
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You must be the lone wolf. Your ears are your enemy! They will bring interruptions, rumors, panics,
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contradictory information, and more. In a situation where you were bombarded with information all the time, how are you supposed to stay calm & neutral and
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avoid emotions & ego? You can't!
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For the author, this was most apparent when he moved to New York after staying abroad for a couple of years.
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He thought that getting closer to the action was going to bring him even more profits. WRONG.
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He even abandoned his old
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proven system and investment philosophy for becoming a part of the Wall Street-herd for a while. This period proved to be the least profitable
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of his whole investment career.
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Maybe this is the reason why Warren Buffett decides to live in Omaha instead of close to any of the major financial centers of the world.
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Its summary time! The first takeaway is that you should never allow yourself to fall in love with any particular stock.
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Marry personally like, not your investments.
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The 2nd advice is to buy when a stock is showing signs of a positive trend and rising trading volumes at the same time as
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the underlying company has potential for earnings growth. Tip number 3 is to cut your losses short and let your winners run.
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Number 4 is to keep a log book of your transactions. This way, you'll learn from your mistakes quicker.
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I'm recording this while on a fishing trip in the northern parts of Scandinavia. To be honest, I'm not even in Sweden anymore.
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I'm visiting our Scandinavian brothers in Norway. To stay true to myself, and any viewers from our neighbors of Norway,
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I will rebrand temporary. Today, I will call myself The Norwegian Investor instead.
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Oh, almost forgot. The final takeaway, advice number 5, is that only dead fish follow the stream. Don't be a dead fish.
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Instead be like a salmon - fighting your way through fjords and rivers. Thanks for watching!
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Remember to comment if you want me to summarize a specific book within the field of personal finance or investing.
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Also, if you want me to elaborate on any of the takeaways from this video,
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please comment on that as well. Cheers guys and good luck fishing for your next great investments!
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