馃攳
7 reasons why Australia is heading for recession in 2020 - YouTube
Channel: Finder Australia
[0]
oh no laughs economy's going then
[6]
Donnie if you've been watching any of
[10]
the news in Australia reason that you
[12]
cannot avoid all of the stories about
[14]
financial Armageddon coming around the
[16]
corner all the stories about potential
[18]
recession here I'm gonna make it worse
[20]
by rounding up the main seven reasons
[22]
why we're almost certain you're gonna
[24]
get a recession in Australia in 2020 so
[27]
in no particular order number one on our
[29]
list is wet growth no wage growth is the
[31]
indication of a healthy growing economy
[33]
because if people get paid more they can
[35]
spend more that creates more jobs which
[38]
means people get paid more it's a bit of
[39]
a cycle wage growth in Australia has
[41]
slowed down recently the last quarter
[44]
was reported to be only 0.6% with the
[47]
last 12 months adding up to 2.3 which is
[49]
below forecasts and worse it's been
[51]
going down for the last ten years so
[54]
that's definitely the first one to watch
[56]
so number two is new car sales in
[59]
Australian and new car sales tend to be
[61]
a really good early barometer of a
[64]
potential recession around the corner
[66]
because in a family budget when the belt
[69]
get tightened usually a new car is the
[70]
first thing to be struck off the list of
[72]
potential purchases and new car sales in
[75]
Australia have been declining for a year
[78]
and a half straight notes that's
[80]
definitely a concern before the global
[82]
financial crisis in the u.s. we sort of
[84]
big dip in car sales we've seen that
[86]
here so watch this space
[88]
the third indicator on our list is the
[90]
volume of housing on the Australian
[93]
housing market if you look at the prices
[95]
properties are being sold for they're
[97]
starting to go up slightly especially in
[99]
Sydney and Melbourne if you look at
[100]
clearance rates that's the percentage of
[102]
properties that are selling off the ones
[104]
that are put up for auction
[105]
every week they're also looking alright
[108]
but if you delve below the surface and
[109]
look at the actual number of properties
[111]
up for sale they're going down the last
[114]
Saturday's auction clearance rates I
[117]
looked up there was only 320 properties
[119]
on the market if you look at the same
[121]
day the year before that was 380 and the
[124]
same daddy year before that it was near
[125]
to 500 properties so we've seen the
[128]
volume go down and that's an indication
[130]
that people are still wary of selling a
[132]
lot
[133]
people who want to sell Duncan doing a
[134]
price that they desire so they're
[137]
holding back eventually they will have
[139]
to sell we really need to see the volume
[141]
and the price of houses go up in order
[143]
to show that the housing market is
[145]
properly starting to recover so if
[147]
you're in the market are thinking about
[149]
getting into the market keep an eye on
[150]
those numbers in the months to come
[152]
number four on our list is that more
[154]
homeowners are defaulting on their home
[157]
loans that default means that you borrow
[159]
for a home loan if you can't pay it back
[161]
within 30 days that gets marked as a
[163]
default with your bank we've seen the
[165]
percentage of homeowners in Australia
[167]
who are defaulting go up slightly it's
[170]
not big overall it's about one and a
[171]
half percent so it's not too much of a
[174]
worry but it's definitely going in the
[175]
wrong direction
[176]
number five is that retail spending in
[179]
Australia is spectacularly low in fact
[181]
reports of came out saying it's as low
[183]
as it's been since in 1991 both NAB and
[186]
Westpac economists have become a and
[188]
referenced recessionary levels of
[190]
spending that's definitely not good 6 is
[193]
that Aussies are looking to book shorter
[195]
and shorter holidays if we look at the
[197]
average number of days people are trying
[200]
to search for quotes for travel
[202]
insurance for on finders travel
[204]
insurance engine where they can search
[206]
from a couple of days up to a year we've
[208]
seen the average of that go down from 40
[211]
days in 2015 to only 27 days now that's
[214]
a concern number 7 is that we have seen
[218]
an inverted yield curve in both Canada
[220]
and the US now the yield curve basically
[223]
shows the returns on investments for
[226]
government bonds when the economy is not
[228]
healthy people who want to invest often
[230]
invest more money in government bonds
[232]
which are safe than they do in the stock
[235]
market and riskier options and when you
[237]
invest money with the government the
[238]
longer you leave investors the higher
[240]
that returns the higher the yield so
[243]
when a yield curve is inverted it means
[245]
that the returns on short term
[247]
investments are higher than the returns
[249]
are long term investments in other words
[251]
investors don't have faith in the
[253]
long-term health of those investments
[255]
and the reason this is important is
[257]
because if you track the yield curve
[259]
over time every time it's become
[261]
inverted we've had a recession and
[264]
just happening so there are seven
[267]
reasons what we're definitely facing
[268]
financial doom there's more reasons on
[271]
top of this in a longer inside vlog
[273]
piece which you can see via the link in
[275]
the description so what do you need to
[277]
do well basically you need to be careful
[279]
with your savings be cautious with your
[281]
investments if you're gonna make any
[283]
investments and keep an eye on these
[284]
numbers
[285]
in the weeks to come there is the other
[286]
side of this argument there's a lot of
[288]
economists saying we're okay we're
[290]
probably not going to face the recession
[291]
we'll look at those arguments in the
[293]
video next week
[294]
but in the meantime you can keep an eye
[295]
on all financial news I find it calm
[298]
that a you find a doctor at you
[300]
[Music]
Most Recent Videos:
You can go back to the homepage right here: Homepage