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The market will go lower and cash remains best place to be: Short Hills' Steve Weiss - YouTube
Channel: CNBC Television
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no i i think it is and i i think that's
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uh that's absolutely correct look j pal
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is going to say that the mark could
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handle the rate increases the tightening
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what else is he going to say i'm going
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to throw the mark into recession so you
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got to ignore that but rather than
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repeating my bearish stance and i'm as
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bearish now as i have been and there's
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lots of scorn you know heaped upon me
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for for doing that since the beginning
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of the year but i think the best use of
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my time right now is to uh is to stage
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an intervention for all those my bullish
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friends that feel that they are so
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addicted to buying the dip to keep
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looking for stocks that are so cheap
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when guess what they can get a lot
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cheaper so just just say you know after
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me my name is steve and i'm addicted to
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buying the market look the market's
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going to go lower cash is the best place
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to be and stop trying to you know to
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conflate today's news
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in terms of the consumers so strong the
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economy strong et cetera with what's
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going to happen on the long-term view in
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the long-term view is that we are going
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to recession even if we don't that's
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continue to be the narrative of the
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people that really follow these things
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rather than those are perennially
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bullish and make their living being
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bullish so there is no safe place to
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hide there is nothing that's cheap
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enough because you don't know what the
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earnings gonna be so sure you'll get the
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typical that we've seen every quarter
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where perhaps we get out performance 60
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which will be low of companies will
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exceed their estimates but the guidance
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will be lower and the numbers will keep
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coming down so you will have to ask
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yourself the question is the market
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cheap and i don't believe it is they
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will the market will overshoot the pe
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like it has in the past and as will the
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fed and i think you can take that to the
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bank
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i have not seen so much scorn directed
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at one individual on the investment
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committee uh more so than i have against
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steve weiss that's for sure particularly
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about your stance about cash but i think
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it always comes down to i just want to
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point that out in case people didn't
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direct any hate they could feel free to
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do so right now um but in turn we keep
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we keep on getting back to that that
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ultimate question and i guess that's why
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i'm talking about information purgatory
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we don't know how to value the stocks
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and so we're waiting for that guidance
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pete but i'll pose it to you even if we
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get that guidance do we
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isn't there just a grain of doubt in
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that guidance i mean what did we see
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from the retailers what did we see from
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target for instance
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your target pete your ceo brian cornell
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came out with earnings couple weeks
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later what happened in terms of
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inventory markdowns and then what
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happened you know a few weeks after that
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in terms of talking about a hot
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halloween everybody's going to go
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partying everybody's going back to
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college it's going to be hot hot hot
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what do we believe here
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well i think that's why you know you've
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heard me use the word cautious for a
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while now and the the one thing that i
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and i understand what steve's talking
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about in terms of the bearish view that
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he's got right now it makes total sense
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we see more and more you see in matter
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of fact in my portfolio more puts than
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you've seen in a very long period of
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time mel so a lot of that is just trying
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to position either as a hedge but
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actually trying to be even a little bit
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more aggressive by having some of those
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puts because i do think like steve's
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talking about that we do have some
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downside potential that that could be
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there if that's the case i want to have
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some puts so i can profit from that so
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that's exactly what i'm doing i've been
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buying puts all around the world as a
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matter of fact because they're not just
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you know the in the spiders or something
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like that or in the queues i'm looking
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over whether or not you want to look at
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the uk itself you want to look at
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germany you want to look at a lot of
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different places i want to have that
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protection in place or at least
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something not just protection but maybe
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i can make a little bit of money on that
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put position as i'm looking to the
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downside because i do think that there's
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a lot of different shock waves that
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could go through things and it could
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cause the markets to go down now you
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brought up target which was a great
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example they miscalculated big time and
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target brian cornell fessed up they said
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exactly that they bought the wrong types
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of things they weren't able to sell them
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and they were essentially going to just
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cut those out mel and get rid of them as
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as much as and as fast as they can so
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the second half of the year that they
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can have a little bit better shot at
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getting some of those numbers so i think
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that they're going to be true to their
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word we know the margins are going to be
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absolutely awful in this coming quarter
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but they're going to have to be able to
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to bite the bullet on that because they
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think going forward as long as they've
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ordered properly they're going to be in
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a good position to actually get back to
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being the target that they were so
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there's a lot of different elements
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going on right now volatility is in this
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kind of an interesting spot mel where
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it's not quite 30 we keep pushing up on
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30 and then we pull right back again so
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this somewhere between 25 and 30 call it
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right now for the volatility index it's
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not a no man's land but it certainly
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makes it a little bit more difficult to
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determine exactly how you want to
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position yourself
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