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Why Putin's Options In Ukraine Are 'Extremely Limited' - YouTube
Channel: MSNBC
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they still lack
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game changer weapon systems they don't
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have very good air defense capability
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particularly against cruise missiles
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launched by aircraft
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they don't have an anti-ship missile
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capability
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try and strike the russian fleet in the
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sea of azov and the black sea
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and we don't yet have i don't think
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enough rpv remotely piloted lethal
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drones
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in there the switchblade 600 another
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magic bit of technology could also make
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a difference
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so
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i think ukrainians are doing very well
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but look there is zero possibility of
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putin saying to his generals okay back
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out of here
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uh unravel the mess
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you've you've made
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there is zero possibility
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of you know in the course of a month
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claiming the russians been fought to a
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standstill it took them two years to
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take down chechnya
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the city of grosney was obliterated
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before it was done
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so the strategic heart of the russian
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attempt now to take ukraine is terror
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attacks on civilians
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and we may not have seen uh
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the extent of it yet they have not used
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mass artillery 5 000 10 000 rounds a day
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yet against some of these cities so it's
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a very grim situation for the ukrainian
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still
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yep so uh so general if you were
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advising um
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president biden uh what would you tell
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him the united states has to get in uh
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to uh to ukraine immediately
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well we can't build uh you know a
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a similar
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military force in ukraine to challenge
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the russians in the air and on the
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ground in the states it's not going to
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happen it takes a year to for example
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deploy patriot missile and get a
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maintenance package and training and
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operators so some of this isn't going to
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change uh secretary austin is out there
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trying to get s 300
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anti-missile systems out of other nato
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countries delivered so there may be some
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new technology appearing but i think the
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biggest thing president biden has done
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is political unity economic sanctions
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and now i think what we're going to see
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nato do is build a strategic threat to
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the russians
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in the eastern bloc of countries so
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we're going to see enhanced forward
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presence uh by the french by the germans
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by the uh
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the united states and the baltic states
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poland romania
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so that putin's generals tell them hey
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look
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you have committed 60 of our ground
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combat power and half our air power to
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fighting in ukraine
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uh now nato is a strategic threat to us
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in other locales
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that's probably the next step
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yeah elliot let me ask you uh
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what your thoughts are where we are
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right now you obviously a few weeks ago
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talked about
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what the west needed to do to move
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beyond phase one uh it seems leaders
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followed a lot of your
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a lot of your suggestions
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where are we right now in your mind and
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what's the next phase and helping the
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ukrainians defend themselves against
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this invasion so i guess i would say
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that the most important thing right now
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is to do the things we're doing but to
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do them at the greatest possible scale
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with the greatest possible
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urgency and i think it's very hard to
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tell from outside whether or not that's
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actually happening
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it's clear that the russians have been
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people use the word stalemated but this
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is a grinding war of attrition
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and of course we pay attention to the
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sufferings of the ukrainian people which
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is appropriate
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but but the russian army is getting
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ground up you know let's remember that
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they've got the estimates are actually
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saying like 75 of their combat power
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deployed
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and it's getting chewed up as well so
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it's still going to be more dynamic i
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think than people
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think it could be but the main thing i
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think is just continue to pour in the
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aid pour on the sanctions uh as general
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mccabe what you're saying is it it is a
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humanitarian disaster for the ukrainian
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people it is a military disaster for the
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the russian nation it is it's more than
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a military disaster for the russian
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nation because i think what you're
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seeing now are things that will reduce
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russia to being a basically a third rate
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power i'm not just talking about the
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sanctions i'm talking about the things
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like literally hundreds hundreds of
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thousands of technically skilled
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russians fleeing their country because
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they don't want to be part of this heidi
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president putin obviously is frustrated
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by the way this war has gone i think he
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thought it'd be a quick victory he's
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increasingly isolated if you read
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reports and listen to the pentagon's
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intelligence which leads to the question
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of what he may do next to win this war
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whatever winning it looks like in his
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eyes
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what do you expect as this sort of slog
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continues from him as ukrainians begin
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to take back now some ground far from
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what president putin expected as some of
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the generals current and former speak
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out publicly in russia against this war
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something we probably would not have
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expected a couple of weeks ago what do
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you expect to see next from him
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so i think one of the
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one of the areas that the where we
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haven't seen the the ball drop yet is on
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cyber and you've had a lot of
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telegraphing from the white house
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that companies should be prepared
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um that you know we should we should
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make sure that our defenses for any kind
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of a a cyber intrusion are
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um are you know fully fully functional
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as a friend of mine is like people save
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your work it's like time to like make
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sure that you're all prepared for uh for
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the ball that hasn't dropped well and
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there's there's two questions to that
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number one um a lot of companies are
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still invested in russia are still doing
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work and a lot of companies and i wonder
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how easy it is to sort of
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extra a lot of them it's not so easy to
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extract themselves for whatever reasons
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and then the impact this conflict is
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having on economies around the world
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yeah so um i mean at this at this summit
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you're going to have some additional
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sanctions um announced and some
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coordination on sanctions which is
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really really important um you know if
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you find acme you know company owned by
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an oligarch in in in one you know in one
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country you can pass the baton from
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switzerland to monaco to a different one
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to actually try and track down more
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effectively the
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different assets but the economy
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in russia the projections are starting
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to come out now that you're going to see
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you know about a 15 hit to gdp next year
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part of that is the brain drain that
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that was just
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referred to part of it is that you've
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seen a number of companies
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um
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like the you know boeing and airbus
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you've seen the the major oil
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servicing companies you've got a lot of
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old wells
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in in russia that need to have those
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servicing companies there
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you know
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the companies that are still operating
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on the ground are getting enormous
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pressure from their shareholders right
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now um if you're going to commit to to
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something like an esg
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you know
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standard then what are you doing in
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russia and that's what shareholders are
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starting to ask right right so
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peter it's so it's so fascinating joe
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biden is is uh it seems he's in a
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constant balancing act has been over the
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past month at the beginning only 26 of
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americans wanted the united states
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involved in a significant way
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now the numbers have shot up and the
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majority want a no-fly zone which of
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course most most military people believe
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would start could start world war three
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but it's the same with europe same with
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nato partners many of them they want to
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hold back but you look at those
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countries on the front line
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they want the united states to do more
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they want to send them migs right you
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look at you look at estonia and latvia
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lithuania they they want more troops
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it's it's it really is a balancing act
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for joe biden
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whether domestically he's never doing
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enough
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at home or or
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in europe where he's being pulled in
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both directions well it is because he's
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trying a course to both uh keep the
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alliance together to make a political
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statement to resupply the ukrainians as
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best he can without going so far as a
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triple wire that we don't know where it
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is that would get us into an escalatory
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phase with russia right does russia get
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to the point where we have pressed them
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so much economically and militarily that
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they feel the need to lash out at nato
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allies in a way that would get us to
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that world war three scenario is still a
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nuclear-powered uh you know superpower
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and and and no matter how badly they're
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doing in ukraine can do an awful lot of
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damage to
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uh to us and to our allies if we were to
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go too far so biden i think is looking
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at that and trying to figure out what's
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the right balance as you say to avoid
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getting uh too far you know too far down
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the escalatory chain and what's he going
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to say in uh
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when he when he speaks uh before the
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nato yeah i come upstairs one obviously
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is to celebrate and reunify or
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re-establish the the unity that nato has
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demonstrated in the face of russian
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aggression that's something that did i
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think surprised vladimir putin he did
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think that nato was in a position of
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weakness at this moment we had just had
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this disastrous exit from afghanistan
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the germans had a new chancellor the
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french are having an election boris
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johnson is weak he thought he could
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divide the alliance after four years of
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trump
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fraying away at the ties between us and
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europe and that didn't happen in fact it
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brought the alliance together in a way
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it hadn't been in many many years he's
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going to celebrate that and reunify that
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or reinforce that the second thing he's
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going to talk about of course are more
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economic sanctions more
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we're seeing reports about sanctioning
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more russian duma members that's the
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parliament that's just symbolic but it's
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still an important statement there's
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talk about how to help europe in terms
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of weaning them off of russian energy
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that's going to be important there's
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talk about that future forward
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deployments in eastern europe to
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uh bolster
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the balls the poles and the romanians
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how we can get some more forces in there
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to make sure that lara putin doesn't
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trip over that uh nato wire general
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mccaffrey peters right that one of the
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unanticipated consequences for vladimir
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putin of this is that strengthening of
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nato he probably should have seen it
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coming but he didn't the west rallying
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around ukraine we expect tomorrow that
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president biden will announce an
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increase in american troops in some of
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those eastern european nato countries um
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so what do you see here from vladimir
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putin just as a military strategist
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you've watched this guy for a long time
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you see the desperation now that he's
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operating under what do you expect from
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him next from a military point of view
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well look i think you're right to
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characterize this as desperation his
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options are now extremely limited once
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you have screwed up a giant invasion
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force logistically command and control
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it's really hard to regain
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the tentacles of command
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it may be weeks for a pause and a
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restructuring of his force on the
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battlefield to come in and replace
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casualties incredible reports i think 25
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000 killed and wounded
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trains going back into mother russia
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with
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young russian boys uh torn apart
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so
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he's running out of conventional options
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that won't cause him to back off so the
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next step is
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what else
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we say weapons of mass destruction are
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normally we talk about nuclear but
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includes chemical biological and most of
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us now include cyber warfare
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if he goes to cyber the escalation may
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be catastrophic on both sides we have an
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enormous
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in concert with the brits offensive
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cyber capability which would be brought
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to bear on the russians
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and i think uh
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he's now looking at seriously probably
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chemical weapons
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very small military threat to the u.s
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army we have protective gear early
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warning systems medical care protective
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mass you can't provide those
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to millions of ukrainian civilians
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the casualties would be devastating
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catastrophic horrible
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my guess is if he goes that route he
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will trigger the political impetus to
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bring nato into the war to his
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uh to his own uh harm so
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we're at a very crucial point he's not
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backing off and by the way fifty percent
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of these russian soldiers don't have
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frostbite there's a lot of nonsense
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floating around out there also
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mariopole's gonna go under sooner or
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later but keeve and odessa as general
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twitty pointed out are key objectives
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and apparently he can't get him with
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conventional military power
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hey thanks so much for watching our
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