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Is Tesla Delaying Deliveries of Cars for Tax Reasons? [highlight] - YouTube
Channel: Ben Sullins
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well our next story is more model three
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stuff that's coming out and I think this
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is pretty exciting and there's some
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really really deep kind of details that
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I want to get into here the first one is
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that the there was a massive shipment of
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model threes spotted in point Richmond
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California which is near Fremont it's
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near the Tesla factory they're currently
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looking at about a rate of 3500 vehicles
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per week and their goal is to get to
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5,000 per week by the end of this month
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if they hit that that'll be a tremendous
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milestone for them two things I'll be
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making an absolute ton of money like a
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quarter billion dollars every single
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week from from those efforts and they
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will probably that'll probably be the
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first time that they've ever actually
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hit a target that Elon said I'll have to
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double check on that one but but it'll
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be a tremendous thing if they're able to
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do it so in this article here from
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electric almost a thousand model three
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is were spotted in Point Richmond last
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month however they started delivering
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these model threes to Canada and that is
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interesting because also a couple months
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ago I think back in March
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all Model S and X deliveries were
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delayed to late June and I can say from
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the people that I've referred looking at
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those delivery numbers they're starting
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to tick up again it used to be you know
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people ordered and like they just sat
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there for months now they're starting to
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get delivered and a lot of us assume
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that this is related to the the tax
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credit situation so here are just a
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couple quick photos from from the
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electric article I'll put a link to that
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there of what they estimate to be about
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a thousand model three is waiting to be
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delivered pretty pretty epic so assuming
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that that's true I wanted to run through
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the scenarios as it relates to the tax
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credit so as you guys know or hopefully
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you know maybe you know the way the tax
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credit situation works here in the
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United States for electric vehicles is
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there's federal ones and there's state
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ones the state ones are kind of unique
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and I'm not going to get into all those
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nuances but I'm talking about the
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federal tax credit so the federal tax
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credit starts to phase out once an a
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single manufacturer delivers actually
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you know in there as they say sell
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to them because most cars when they're
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sold do you actually you know get the
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keys that means in our case delivered
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right now
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Tesla as of q1 2018 using data from the
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e V scorecard ins on inside EVs who does
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a great job tracking this stuff really
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far back that I had them at a hundred
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and seventy-five almost one hundred and
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seventy six thousand vehicles delivered
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now this also doesn't include the
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original roadster which does count
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towards this number because it's any
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vehicle I believe after December 1st of
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2009 so literally every Tesla that's
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ever been made so this number could even
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be higher as of the end of q1 so with
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their current their rate that they're
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producing these cars it was pretty much
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a guarantee that they would they would
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hit this number in q2
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but the problem would be that it would
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be towards the end of q2 and so so with
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that it's one of those things where
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where it's really difficult this is
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where I think they've done some
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strategic kind of deliveries outside of
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the US because those don't count and
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things like that
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so what I did last time is I did a
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delivery forecast and I just looked at
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you know the previous kind of
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month-to-month and then I calculated
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using using the the models built into
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tableau here what those at what those
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deliveries might look like for the next
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year then when you add those in I looked
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at kind of a couple different scenarios
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and this was the same model I used
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previously where the model 3 ramp would
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continue and they would just do nothing
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different in which case by June by now
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they would have hit 230 thousand
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deliveries and that means that any
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vehicle in q2 or q3 that had been
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delivered would qualify and then q4 and
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and on would you know you'd start to see
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the results of the phase-out the other
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model that I had predicted was that they
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would either slow the model three ramp
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which doesn't appear to happen or they
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would slow deliveries and then they also
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could deliver outside of the US so we
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did see a slowing of deliveries in the
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US and them start to deliver them
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outside of the US so that makes sense so
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kind of model 2 is the one that I was
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looking at here and so with this what I
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was estimating is that they would hit
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their their 200,000 car in kind of July
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I think I had
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yeah 199,000 438 in july but again
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there's definitely a margin of error
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here so so you know hopefully hopefully
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they'll literally hit their 200,000
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cards July 1st so there's that so these
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were kind of the models I was predicting
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previously now the way that the credit
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works just to recap so you guys are
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aware because I think this is really
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important to understand is that
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basically forever all Tesla's qualified
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for the full $7,500 US tax credit and
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that's because the amount of energy that
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they use the size of the battery is what
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is actually based on the credit and
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$7,500 being at the top end of that
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being the max then from there they're
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basically all vehicles are qualified
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until they hit their two hundred
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thousand car delivered and so you know
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that would basically mean that
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everything up until you know q3 assuming
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that they they do it this is what we're
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all hoping for all vehicles delivered in
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q3 would also count for the full tax
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credit and then in q4 as well meaning
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the rest of 2018 every Tesla that was
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delivered Model S x3 whatever else the
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other thing that's gonna have right now
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but all of those vehicles would qualify
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for the federal tax credit of $7,500 now
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the quick aside the way the tax credit
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works you don't get to take that money
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off of the purchase price this is why on
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my model 3 cost calculator you can put
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in a million dollars in incentives but
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that monthly your loan amount and all
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that stuff is still the same because it
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doesn't change that you still have to
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let's say you configure it fully Specht
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out at $70,000 or whatever you still
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have to get a loan for that full amount
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or however you're gonna find that so you
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just have to pay that upfront then
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assuming that you as in as a tax payer
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or as a wage earner in the United States
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have $7,500 or greater in a tax
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liability meaning that you made enough
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money that you owe that much money on
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taxes throughout the year then you will
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be able to deduct that now you may think
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well I don't I usually get a return I
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don't you know usually pay taxes at the
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end of the year that's not what matters
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because you actually pay taxes every
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single paycheck most people do anyways
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as a w-2 wage earner
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so while you're paying those taxes
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essentially all of that stuff all the
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money that you paid or $7,500 of it you
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would be able to get back assuming you
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had more than that and a tax liability
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last time I looked at this it means that
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if you're making around $55,000 in the
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US or greater you should be okay but
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that's something that you could look at
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your to your previous taxes to get a
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perfectly clear answer on so after those
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two quarters the to the quarter they hit
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it in and the following which in our
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scenario here would be the rest of 2018
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it drops down to half of that 3750
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so that means q1 and q2 of 2019 every
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vehicle delivered in the US then would
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also get would get 50% of that 3750
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still not bad honestly then for the next
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two quarters so the second half of 2019
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you would get half of that so you're at
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eighteen seventy five and then 2020 q1
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January 1st essentially you would have
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no more attack credit left for for
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Tesla's now this could change the
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legislature they're the public utilities
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have tried to lobby the United States
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government to remove this cap I haven't
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heard any updates on that but that is a
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potential as well that either as this
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happens or you know down the road they
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could bring it back or increase that
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make it a limited whatever we don't know
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what's gonna happen with the political
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kind of situation but this is kind of as
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it stands what we're all hoping for in
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terms of the tax credit situation here
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in the US so really curious what you
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guys think I hope you guys get your cars
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and you qualify for all that because
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it's pretty awesome that that our
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government is able to provide this for
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us here in the United States so let me
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know if you have questions on that hear
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me up on Twitter Facebook whatever and I
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appreciate you know all the people
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sending in questions about this because
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it does help focus this because I want
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to make sure you guys basically
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understand how it all works
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you
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