馃攳
Profit from the Alcohol Stocks Cycle | Cyclical Investing | Vijay Bhambwani - YouTube
Channel: Equitymaster
[0]
hello friends i hope you're doing great
[2]
in the market and the market's treating
[5]
you very well
[7]
i want to record this video and through
[11]
this video
[12]
teach you another cyclical aspect of the
[14]
market where you can make some really
[17]
really
[18]
good deep profits from the market cycles
[22]
and
[23]
these cycles are somewhat i'm using the
[26]
word somewhat
[27]
predictable and there's ample data
[30]
available in the free domain from some
[32]
of the best resources in the world
[35]
links to which i will share with you and
[38]
help you make better informed decisions
[41]
as usual due to equity master and sebi's
[45]
restrictions and regulatory compliance
[48]
issues i will
[50]
desist i will i will i will not share
[52]
any individual stock names but
[56]
rather than give you one single fish to
[58]
eat in this video i'm going to share a
[62]
very profitable system by which you can
[65]
catch the fish and you can eat it at
[67]
your own leisure this is another step of
[71]
making you your own master how to
[74]
basically control your own destiny
[78]
over a period of time you'll be able to
[80]
get the hang of what i'm saying so let's
[82]
dive right in in my previous video i
[86]
talked about the cyclicality in the
[88]
sugar industry
[90]
now if you've got the hang of what i was
[92]
saying
[94]
this video and this system
[96]
is somewhat correlated with the sugar
[100]
sector itself
[102]
and
[103]
those of my viewers who out of religious
[106]
compulsions or out of certain personal
[109]
beliefs
[111]
feel that the alcohol industry is
[113]
something that they will not invest in i
[116]
understand i appreciate the fact that
[118]
there are certain
[120]
segments of the investors who find
[123]
investments in companies that
[125]
sell or market tobacco non-vegetarian
[128]
food alcohol etc as uh somewhat off
[133]
limits so for those viewers my apologies
[136]
in advance this video is something that
[139]
may not really cater to you but for the
[141]
others who are agnostic about these
[143]
issues please
[146]
remain with me as i share my system
[150]
you see the alcohol industry like any
[152]
other industry has cycles
[155]
and
[156]
you will be surprised that the alcohol
[159]
industry in india is also somewhat
[161]
connected with the sugar industry
[164]
now
[166]
in india it is normally seen that the
[169]
second half of the financial year our
[172]
financial year starts from first april
[174]
ends on 31st march for those of my
[176]
viewers who are joining in from overseas
[180]
so the second half of the financial year
[182]
actually starts from first october and
[185]
ends in on 31st march
[188]
the second half of the financial year
[190]
normally sees
[192]
the
[193]
civilian population the citizens
[196]
rather willingly put their hands into
[199]
their pockets and spend money because
[201]
festive uh occurrences festive holidays
[205]
for almost all communities religions
[207]
ethnicities are concentrated in the
[210]
second half which is why consumption of
[213]
alcohol also starts to pick up
[217]
around that time so prior to that you do
[219]
have the monsoons where
[222]
it is normally a pastime if you're stuck
[225]
at home due to flooding etc people do
[227]
sit at home and the alcohol consumption
[228]
goes up a bit but
[230]
once uh
[232]
the
[233]
lord ganpathi's
[234]
festival is over when people really
[237]
really religiously abstain from
[239]
non-vegetarian and alcoholic consumption
[242]
once ganpati season is over
[245]
the shrad paksha which is a period
[248]
where the hindus remember their
[251]
ancestors and worship them and pray for
[254]
them here again is a period of
[255]
abstinence where indulgences are banned
[259]
so all these days are behind us in the
[262]
second half of the financial year
[266]
starting from the sarah which is
[269]
the day lord rama slayed ravana
[273]
going into diwali
[275]
going into christmas going into eid
[277]
going into new year and then
[280]
january onwards
[282]
you go into makhar sankranti the kite
[284]
flying festival holi which is the color
[287]
spraying festival
[289]
shivratri etc people do
[293]
indulge in alcohol a lot so it doesn't
[296]
require rocket science to tell you that
[298]
alcohol sales actually pick up
[301]
in the second half of the financial year
[304]
the stock market being the stock market
[307]
uh discounts this uh a phenomena in
[311]
advance and therefore you will see that
[315]
a month or two before the second half of
[317]
the financial year starts
[320]
alcohol stocks start to pick up now
[322]
don't jump the gun and start buying
[324]
alcohol stocks because we are headed
[326]
into that time of the financial year
[329]
remember in this video i'm desisting
[331]
from making stock recommendations i'm
[333]
only sharing the bigger picture and a
[335]
system with you
[337]
and it is not over yet
[340]
remember i told you that the alcohol
[342]
outlook in india
[344]
is also determined by the sugar sector
[348]
allow me to explain why
[350]
most of you when uh you think of whiskey
[353]
or rum or gin or
[356]
vodka or whatever think that you're
[359]
actually drinking whiskey gin rum or
[361]
vodka
[362]
most of the indian
[364]
liquor that you're actually drinking is
[366]
molasses based it comes from the sugar
[369]
industry molasses are a by-product of
[373]
the sugar industry and
[375]
the alcohol the pure alcohol that
[378]
is generated by the sugar mills is sold
[382]
to the distilleries and
[385]
flavoring and coloring is added to make
[387]
it either into whiskey or gin or
[390]
vodka of course
[392]
that alcohol when you see looks
[394]
transparent just like water so uh it's
[397]
extremely extremely flexible you can
[400]
make it whatever you want to make it
[402]
for example if you google search
[405]
a grain neutral spirit almost on every
[408]
bottle of indian whiskey you will or or
[410]
any any other alcohol you will see that
[412]
it is a grain neutral spirit what does
[414]
it mean it means that
[417]
it's not exactly what you think it is
[419]
there is molasses in it so it's more of
[422]
a rum than a gin for that matter it is
[425]
when i mfl or indian made foreign liquor
[428]
means
[429]
local indian stock the base uh neutral
[432]
alcohol
[434]
derived from molasses is added with
[436]
imported liquor that you are getting
[438]
indian whiskey or indian gin or indian
[441]
vodka right so
[445]
if at all you are in the sugar cycle
[448]
where
[449]
abundant amount of sugar crop is
[452]
available
[453]
the raw alcohol is also cheaper and in
[457]
that particular year the alcohol
[459]
industry will a have cheaper raw
[462]
material and be cyclically high sales in
[465]
the second half of the financial year so
[468]
do remember that no two years in the
[471]
alcohol cycle will be exactly alike
[474]
you have to look at the sugar cycle you
[476]
have to look at the time of the year for
[478]
alcohol marry them too and see what the
[481]
outlook is now i remember i promised you
[484]
to share the data source
[486]
do google search the national food
[489]
security mission of india
[492]
n f s m dot g o v dot i n g o v stands
[498]
for government i n i n stands for india
[502]
the hyperlink to this website is also
[504]
available in the description below this
[506]
video if you go to this website you can
[509]
download a 11 page pdf file
[512]
on sugar
[514]
and you will see that sugar is a twice a
[518]
year crop it is
[522]
first in march and then in september
[525]
october so you can see that
[528]
it's a twin crop now in the second half
[531]
of the financial year if you actually
[533]
know where to look and starting
[535]
with many government agricultural
[538]
websites you can actually see what the
[540]
crop of sugar for that particular
[542]
financial year is going to be like
[545]
if the sugar stock if the sugar crop i
[547]
mean
[548]
is abundant remain assured the alcohol
[551]
industry in india will be getting cheap
[553]
spirit
[555]
and then in that particular second half
[557]
of that financial year the stock of the
[560]
alcohol companies will rise faster than
[563]
in a year where the sugar crop is
[566]
lower
[567]
because the neutral the the base alcohol
[570]
that will be available from the sugar
[572]
mills will be more expensive raw
[574]
material prices will be higher
[577]
friends
[578]
this is my 360 degree world view which i
[582]
use to take as many variables as far as
[584]
possible into consideration before
[588]
taking a step in the market
[590]
remember in the financial markets
[593]
nothing happens without a reason and
[595]
because these are financial markets the
[597]
reason also has to be financial
[600]
if you basically make the right moves
[603]
using the cause and effect theory
[605]
i can assure you i don't call markets mr
[609]
markets as the westerners call it i call
[612]
the market mother market
[614]
i assure you that mother market will
[617]
ensure that you do not sleep hungry in
[619]
the night
[621]
for a thoughtful
[623]
savvy and
[624]
considerate discerning investor the
[627]
market will tell you how to put food on
[630]
your table provided you know where to
[633]
look for data you know what to do with
[635]
that data you know the cause and effect
[637]
theory analysis and then you act at the
[640]
right time and at the right price
[643]
friends i'm not done yet i have many
[646]
more ideas to share with you on my 360
[649]
degree world view but for now i'll bid
[651]
goodbye to you on this cheerful note not
[654]
before reminding you to click like on
[656]
this video if you agree with what you
[658]
saw subscribe to my youtube channel if
[661]
you haven't already done so click on the
[663]
bell icon to receive instant alerts
[665]
about fresh videos being put up out here
[668]
and
[669]
good bad or ugly i welcome your comments
[672]
with open arms please keep communicating
[675]
with me
[676]
help me reach out to fellow like-minded
[678]
investors and traders by referring my
[680]
video to your family and friends
[683]
thank you for your patience and watching
[685]
my videos this is vijay bambani signing
[687]
off for now till we meet again i wish
[688]
you have a very very profitable day in
[690]
the markets take care bye
Most Recent Videos:
You can go back to the homepage right here: Homepage