09. Cohort Study - Incidence Rate - YouTube

Channel: Simon Jeon

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So that is the reason why we need another聽 incidence measure to take account into the time聽聽
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information that each member of the cohort聽contributes. And the calculation of incidence聽聽
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rate well seems simple based on that聽equation. Here in the numerator the number of new聽聽
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cases during a specified period of time goes, which聽 is basically the same as the incidence proportion.聽聽
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However, the calculation of denominator can聽 be a bit complicated, which is defined as a聽聽
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total sum of the time each person was observed聽 without disease until one of the 4 endpoints.聽聽
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So for example, a person is followed up for 10聽 years without developing disease in a 10 year聽聽
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longitudinal study and the person contributed 10聽 person-years of observation. So that is the unit of聽聽
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the incidence rate: person-years, or person-months,聽 or even person-hours. So it is depending upon
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the length of the study basically. So the unit聽follows the length of the study. On the聽聽
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other hand, if another person develops a disease at聽 year 5, then the person contributed 5 person-
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years. So let's take a look at a sample question聽how to calculate the incidence rate. So here is聽聽
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question saying a cohort of 2100聽 over 60 years old was enrolled in a study聽聽
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and followed up over 4 years to determine聽the incidence rate of AMD. So they were examined聽聽
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4 times at each year-end. So from the first聽 year, there was no case but 100 loss to follow up聽聽
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and in the second year examination, there was one聽new case of AMD and there was another 99 loss to聽聽
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follow up and in third year examination, 7, there were 7 new cases and another 793 loss聽聽
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to follow up and at the聽 fourth-year examination they found 8 extra new聽聽
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cases of AMD and another 392 more loss to follow聽up. Because it is much easier to calculate the聽聽
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numerator, so let's just calculate the聽 numerator, which is just the number of new cases of聽聽
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AMD over the study period, the follow-up聽 period. So as you can see, you can just add聽聽
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all the new cases from across all聽4 years so that's zero plus one plus 7 plus聽聽
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8 becomes 16. So 16 will go to the numerator but聽 the calculation of denominator will become quite聽聽
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convoluted. So the denominator is basically聽the sum of the person-year observation. So let's聽聽
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just start with the first year. So we do not have聽a case of AMD. So there's no contribution
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and loss to follow up, we had 100聽loss to follow up. So 100
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but because we do not know exactly聽 when these people are lost to follow up,聽聽
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we're going to just assume as a conservative聽guess, just kind of way of imputation. So they're聽聽
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going to just contribute half a year. So聽 this is going to by convention how聽聽
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people impute the data. So that's 50 years and聽 then healthy people is... you have to take away 100聽聽
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because you have 100 loss to follow up and that's聽 2000. So they all contributed a year
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without the disease. So total will become you聽 just add all these together it will become 2050聽聽
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for the first year. So the聽 total person-year observation聽聽
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for the first year is a 2050 person-years. Got聽it? So now we're going to just move on to聽聽
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the second year. So that's聽 what we just calculated.
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And we have one case and because we do not know聽聽
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when this person actually got the disease聽 again so we're going to multiply 0.5.
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So this person contributed 0.5 year, half a year聽 and then there's another 99 lost to follow up聽聽
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oops and I mean it's all there but I'm just trying聽to show you how I calculate this. So that's
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29.5 and now we are left with
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2000 minus 1 minus 99. So that's聽another 100. So we have one case聽聽
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and 99 loss to follow up so that's 1900. We add all these 0.5 49.5 1900 that's 50
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1900 that's 1950.
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Yes that's what we have. and now I think聽 you get the hang of it so I'll just move on.聽聽
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next year and then
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now we got to the final year and聽聽
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now you're going to have to add all聽 these subtotals and which are these.
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So if you add these two that's 4000 and this聽 is 2400, 4000 +
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2400 will become 6400. So let's just finalise the calculation.
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The numerator we already calculate the numerator聽 which is just the number of new cases of AMD聽聽
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and we had 16 cases and the denominator聽is a person-year observation and I just聽
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calculated 6400 person-years. So it聽 goes 16 over 6 400 person-years.聽聽
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So it's either 0.0025 cases per person-years聽 or I mean I prefer this notation to this聽聽
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decimal notation. So you want to make it like聽a whole number 25 cases per 10000 person-years. So聽聽
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whichever you report the incidence rate is fine聽 but personally, I prefer the same latter one.