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Key inflation gauge up 4.9% over past year, in line with expectations - YouTube
Channel: CNBC Television
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live at cme hq last breaking news before
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the memorial day holiday weekend
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advanced goods trade balance expected at
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a minus 114 billion comes in light
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that's a good thing minus 105.9 billion
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just so you understand last month at 127
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billion was the biggest ever so we know
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why gdp is down that's one of the
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reasons more imports and exports retail
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inventories up seven tenths of one
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percent that's definitely much less than
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we were expecting and inventory building
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seemed to have peaked in the fourth
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quarter of last year wholesale
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inventories up four tenths one percent
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very close to the a path one percent
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that we were looking for uh
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excuse me that's up 2.1 on wholesale
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inventories up 2.1 that is as expected
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personal income is up four tenths of one
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percent that's a little bit light and in
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the rear view mirror up half one percent
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so we see that the income side's a
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little light what about spending we all
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know that spending has been more
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difficult with inflation spending
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expected up eight tenths comes in as
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expected a little richer up nine tenths
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one percent with a revision of 1.4
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versus 1.1 last month if we look at real
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spending adjusted for inflation it's up
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seven tenths of one percent now let's
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get into the most important aspect as
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mike pointed uh the deflators uh give us
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a preferred measurement of inflationary
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pressures the month over month number up
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two tenths of one percent up nine tenths
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in the rearview mirror that was a
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17-year high if we look at year over
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year up 6.3 that's coming off of 6.6
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which was the highest since 1982
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and if we look at the core pce deflator
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month over month it was up three tenths
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as expected uh the high water mark there
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is up 6 10 so it's half of the post
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cycle high maybe the most important
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number of the day personal consumption
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expenditure core x food energy deflator
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year over year up 4.9 percent exactly as
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expected the high water mark there was
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five point three percent that takes you
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back to 1983. so we definitely see a
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little easing back a bit uh what's
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interesting here is of course that
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wholesale inventories popped a bit we
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want to see more inventories we want to
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see more exports compared to imports to
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try to moderate that trade deficit even
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more of course that'll help gdp what's
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interest rates uh doing with regard to
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this well we're still about unchanged on
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the day on a 10-year 274. we're down
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about three basis points on the week and
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of course we're all very excited that
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the
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monthly averages and weekly performance
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of the equity markets might finally be
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turning positive mike back to you rick
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looks that way up four percent coming
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into this uh in the s p 500 this week so
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the core pce down below five percent 4.9
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as you said on a year-over-year basis uh
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it reinforces that idea i guess that
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we're flattening out or moderating in
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terms of the pace of inflation gains we
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have energy not cooperating right on the
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on the one side and we still don't know
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what we might be moderating to in terms
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of a level
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yeah no and that's the key question
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listen the notion of peak inflation
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makes a lot of economic sense
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considering all the issues we've gone
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through or are still going through
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whether it's supply chain covert all of
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that but the real issue is what's going
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to remain sticky probably labor and
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energy the latter because of policy more
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than anything else and i'm not being
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political you could look at any party
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there's a lot of issues there but maybe
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most important is how much we come down
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even if we're at peak inflation mike
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which you've expressed many times along
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with papasani exactly how much it
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moderates as a comparison to where we
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were in 2018 and 2019 that's probably
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the most important aspect with regard to
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how jay powell and company proceed
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shepard smith here thanks for watching
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cnbc on youtube
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