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I think 100 basis points is off the table for July, says NewEdge's Rob Sechan - YouTube
Channel: CNBC Television
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and there's this growing debate now over
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what the fed is going to do in a couple
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of weeks how do you see the landscape
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here relative to what you've seen most
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recently
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yeah i would say today you had a
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goldilocks environment better growth
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lower inflation as evidenced by the
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retail sales university of michigan
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there was a bunch of other data that
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came out but let's remember a lot of
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that's really sensitive to gas prices
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especially on the inflation side of this
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i do think that takes 100 basis points
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off the table for july
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um you know we could still have 75 in
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september and then later in the year who
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knows but our view is that the data has
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to get worse before before things get
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better in the market most specifically
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you have to have the fed have an
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opportunity to pivot in some way it
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doesn't have to be dramatic so we still
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think this is a this is a rally a
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strength to sell into
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and that we're still in a downtrend and
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ultimately you'll get an opportunity at
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lower levels to kind of reload your gun
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what a couple of days uh jason snipe for
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this fed talk and team leaf reading uh
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bostick had this bombshell yeah
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everything's on the table then all of a
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sudden
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i feel like almost every wall street
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bank came out and said yeah we see a
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hundred basis points i talked to some
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people in overtime yesterday money
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managers yeah we see a hundred basis
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points waller kind of talked people off
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the ledge on that bullard today uh
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over the next 18 months inflation could
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go back to two percent if the fed plays
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its cards correctly he's skeptical that
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we fall into a recession he's more in
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the 75 basis point camp oh where are you
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yeah scott so i think obviously the
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softness and the rhetoric uh is
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obviously helpful to the markets i think
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as we looked at really hot ppi numbers
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hot cpi numbers and now retail sales
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this morning you know which was a beat
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and i think if you if you remove auto
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sales and gas i mean
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60 basis points uh beat there so i think
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that that was a catalyst for some of the
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strength that we have today
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you know for me when i'm thinking about
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monetary policy going forward and
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thinking about what the fed will decide
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to do in the next two weeks i think they
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do move 75 basis points and i think
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they'll do 75 basis points in september
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you know and i think that's when they'll
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pause potentially we'll see how the
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market unfolds you know throughout the
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rest of the summer but as we talked
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about earlier in the week you know uh
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looking at commodity prices starting to
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roll over some but i think shelter costs
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is a really big one for me looking at
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housing is a major one for me so let's
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let's see how those numbers uh start to
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look over the next couple quarters and
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then we'll kind of i think that will
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play really heavy into what the fed
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decides to do
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all right brenda i mean this was in in
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in
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many ways as i've said
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on twitter this is a farmer gym number
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right um he is the one who has been
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telling us
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you guys are getting it wrong you're too
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negative the consumer is still strong uh
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he doesn't see a recession like so many
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others do and again we've been so you
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know falling into this belief that we're
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gonna have a recession imminently
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and maybe that's premature
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how do you see what the market's going
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to do from here
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yeah i see i think certainly this week
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we've gotten a lot of data points
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suggesting that the consumer is healthy
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and it started with a lot of the bank
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earnings and just
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you know notes especially with jp morgan
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saying even the lower income consumer is
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still consuming and spending and
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consumers are taking on a little bit
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more credit card debt i think that's
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okay right here and now because their
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balance user is still so healthy but i
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think it's been so easy to get fired in
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the negative uh
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the negative environment particularly
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with the inflation numbers that we've
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seen and having an assume that the
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consumer is really hurting and not able
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to spend but then we've seen this week
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they are still spending um and i think
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that's really important for the economy
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because you know in the u.s the consumer
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is just such a
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gigantic driver of gdp growth
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so i think when we look at this
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environment and i won't say i'm as
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bullish as farmer jim uh but i will say
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that i feel like it's easy to get too
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mired in the negativity and not really
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recognize it beneath the surface things
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are actually still really healthy so
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certainly could they be um could they
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degrade from here absolutely
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but here and now things are still quite
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healthy and so i think that bodes well
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uh both for current trends um and for
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corporate earnings here of course we're
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going to hear more over the coming weeks
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and that should give us more insight
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into what's actually happening and what
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companies see coming down the pike
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