Método Delphi para pronosticar la demanda - YouTube

What is the Delphi method? The Delphi method consists of carrying out

a systematic consultation carried out by experts, with experts we refer to

people who have a lot of knowledge in a field where the objective,

the objective of the application of this method is to obtain a consensus. It is

applied in many fields and in this case,

in this explanation and in this example, we would apply it to

estimate demand. It is an iterative and structured method, what do we

mean by this: It is a method that is applied in phases,

once we have designed the survey, we distribute it and the experts

respond with each of their impressions,

we analyze the conclusions and based on it we reapply with

the same or a different survey sent to the same experts, this would be a second iteration.

We carry out the inspirations that we consider pertinent

to obtain the conclusions we need, in this case

the demand forecast. And how can we apply in the method. Let's see

them step by step

Well, broadly speaking, initially we have to define a topic, for example

if we are talking about demand forecasting a topic would be: we want

to forecast the demand for the last quarter of the year, then this would be the part

to define the topic. Dening a delimitation, it must have a scope and when we define the topic

we also have to anticipate how long we estimate the

application of the method will take.

The next step is to take the questionnaire. It is very important

to have defined the topic correctly beforehand because the success of the

questionnaire will depend on this. That questionnaire is going to be the one that is going to be distributed to the experts, but

first we have to define the experts. Next step: Define experts - we propose

a series of characteristics that are what will allow us to determine

who are the ideal people to be considered as experts, then,

for example, we can consider

the background they have,

the experience, the knowledge, the studies or

the role within the company for example. The next step is

to inform the experts

what their role is in the application of the method, so for example, following

the forecast case, if a company wants to forecast demand, it might be

pertinent to choose experts as clients who play the role of clients, experts

from the strategic part: director leaders, and experts from the

commercial part, such as salespeople.

That would be a method that is focusing on each of the levels of

the company,

contrary to other methods such as the executive opinion jury that focuses

only on the strategic part or the market survey that focuses

only on customers. Well, once the experts know what their role is

in the application of this method, the questionnaire is distributed, it is

important that the experts know how long the method is going to last and

how many phases or iterations

are going to exist in the method

. of planning, both for the experts

and to know how much the costs are going to be in which we are going to be

involved when applying this type of method. Finally

, the experts answer the questionnaire, the answers arrive and the answers are tabulated

and if they analyze. So there we apply all the

relevant statistics, mode, median, standard deviation, all the

statistical analyzes that allow us to determine the conclusions we

need to forecast demand. So this step is done,

the last step is to start the next round, start the next iteration,

this same process is done as many times as necessary, as

many times as we estimate to ensure the success of the method and

that we can estimate a good demand forecast.

What are the advantages of the method: Let's see.

Among the advantages of the method,

we know that it is a method that can be anonymous, the experts do not necessarily

have to know who the other experts are who answer

the questionnaires together with them and this means that there is no

role among experts. Different things and if, for

example, a focus group or a consensus group technique will be developed where the

opinion of both strategic, operational, and commercial is mixed

and, well, this can cause moments of intimidation between one line and another

line of charge. Another other advantage is that there is a diversity of opinions that are confronted with each other

to be adjusted

, so we can cross different opinions of the experts that we

define and this makes the Delphi method a very flexible method in this

sense. Finally, another advantage is that the consensus achieved can present a

high degree of reliability

depending on the selection of experts and these can be a

disadvantage

, let's see why: In the disadvantages we have that

it is generally one of the methods that takes more time to application,

this is totally true, it takes time to send a questionnaire to an

expert, it takes time to get your answers, it takes time to analyze

the answers, it takes time to apply the same process again,

so this makes it take a long time and for this same

reason it also makes it a very expensive method of

second sales. As a third disadvantage, the questionnaire, as well as the

experts selected, are decisive in obtaining an

accurate forecast. As we mentioned before as an advantage, it can also be a

disadvantage. Depending on how pertinent the questionnaire that

we are preparing is and how pertinent the

experts we have are for the objective for which we advance the method, well,

the conclusions will also be. If we don't have a good

questionnaire and if one or more of the experts

aren't the best at answering the questions, then the answers we're going

to get

are full of bias.

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