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Ken Fisher Examines Where Investor Sentiment Stands Going into 2022 - YouTube
Channel: Fisher Investments
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a valid question always is
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where investor sentiment stands because
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as i cite over and over and over
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sir john templeton's legendary line that
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bull markets are born on pessimism grow
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on skepticism mature on optimism and die
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of euphoria is a piece of
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permanent wisdom and as we've moved from
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a world
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12 years ago with tremendous
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fear and pessimism of all things
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irregularly forward into a world that at
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the beginning of this year as i've said
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was
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beginning to bite on to the early stages
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of euphoria
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that the concern about sentiment is a
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valid one
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but
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in fact
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since
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about march
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while we've had a
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stock market that up until about a month
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ago was rip roaring and over the course
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of the last month is kind of wiggle
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sideways
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we
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see sentiment actually having
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backtracked fairly significantly
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a lot of the features that were
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heavily beginning to get
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a little bit scary
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have backed off
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the huge surge that had occurred and set
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all-time records
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in
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special purpose acquisition funds which
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is a
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sort of a
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tricky way to do a alternative in
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initial public offering
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the move toward
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non-fungible tokens which are these
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bizarre ways to have
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something be
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traded
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at a very
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high level supposedly backed by
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some form of uh crypto
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and crypto itself
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in the spring
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spiking to uh record pricing
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these and
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other signs
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for example early in the year
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surveys from
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institutional investors showed
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most institutional investors expecting
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to see mildly higher prices year ahead
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now of course stocks have done much
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better than that so they were wrong
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about that
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but
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now we've seen a world where they
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actually expect
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lower prices by the end of the year
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and they're almost always wrong so you
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should see that as a positive sign to
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back off in uh special purpose
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acquisition
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uh offerings both in terms of some that
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blew up
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and others that were
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stalled off from regulatory concerns and
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in fact regulatory concerns not just
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uh from our government but also from
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foreign countries
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have led that as well as crypto to
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become more if you will
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down to earth
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all of these are actually signs that
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sentiment is backed off
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john templeton's line is a good one
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but the move from pessimism to a bull
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market's euphoria is not a straight line
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it's a wiggly line it's a wiggly line a
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little bit like the stock market's
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wiggly and what we've had since march is
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that wiggling back into an area that's
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now clear optimism but we're clearly not
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at euphoria we've got numbers of things
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that people wrongly associate with fear
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a fear for example about what's going on
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in afghanistan which is a true human
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tragedy
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it's a humanitarian tragedy
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but it's the kind of thing that doesn't
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really impact
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capital markets capital markets just
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don't it capital markets are cruel mean
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non-caring and literally things like
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that we have a very long history of them
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in different forms markets don't care
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about that
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things like
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the
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delta variant and fears about other
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future variants of covid
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causing slower growth when before people
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thought we were off to the races in a
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long boom
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this
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also was an optimism that was always a
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false optimism because as i've said from
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early in the year what we really did was
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had a
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a fairly strong upturn that was moving
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us back toward normalcy but then we hear
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people say and there's some validity to
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it that what's gone on with
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covid has put restrictions in varied
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ways in varied places that has impacted
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some of the small retailing some of the
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hospitality industry negatively impacted
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some other parts of travel
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and that's all true but those features
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all of them in aggregate are a tiny tiny
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small
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percentage of the u.s or global stock
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market
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ranging in the
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area of about two percent that is that
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which is impacted is two percent so that
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tells you why it is that those things
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which get a lot of attention in media
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don't have any real ripple over effect
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into the stock market
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these features have moved us back
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into what i would call
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an area where sentiment now
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having
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wiggled backwards a little bit from
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where it had been now has room to run
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as we move into the next leg of this
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long bull market
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