Carley Garner on oil, gold & silver, natural gas, & trading commodities now - YouTube

Carley Garner on oil, gold & silver, natural gas, & trading commodities now investing investor david moadel

welcome to looking at the markets with David Modell

today's guest is you know somebody I've been looking forward to speaking with

for a long time based in Las Vegas Nevada miss karlie

garner is a commodities futures and options broker at de Carli trading

author of hi I'm sorry higher probability commodity trading and a

highly sought after columnist for stocks and commodities magazine and the street

comm among others you've seen miss garner on Mad Money with Jim Cramer

she's been quoted in the Wall Street Journal you can connect with miss garner

at Karly garner trading calm and de Carli trading calm links in the

description of the video and now she's been gracious enough to join me on

looking at the markets miss garner thank you so much for joining me today

no problem David it's a pleasure to be here absolutely

so why do we start the beginning how did you get started in finance and more

specifically in commodities trading right well it's a probably relatively

boring story but here it goes my I actually started off when I first went

into college my a thought was I wanted to be a physical therapist I did a bunch

of pre-med classes did that type of thing and then I realized I hate

touching people and that's kind of a requirement to be a physical therapist

is just for some reason never entered my head right so so I said you know let's

go a different direction and I ended up getting a degree in accounting and

Finance I started in accounting I hated that too and then so I decided to go go

and do in finance and I decided as now as that was for me so I loved it at a at

a college I was originally thinking to being a stockbroker but I did an

internship and it wasn't that exciting it was selling mutual funds and loaded

funds for that mattered it just honestly wasn't I didn't feel good about what I

was doing and for something else I emblem commodities and Here I am I've

been doing this since 2003 and I've loved every day of it it's

a lot of fun why I take that back I haven't loved every day there's

definitely been some bad days but it it's one of those things that it's every

day is a little bit different it's new and exciting and so it's awesome

yeah and you know I'm glad you went down that road and you hey you don't have to

touch people but you're touching us through your newsletter your websites I

see I did that there you go speaking of your yeah I wanted to talk about your

book higher probability commodity trading which is currently available on

Amazon I recommend people check that out it's quickly becoming a classic but my

question for you is does someone need to be an experienced commodities trader to

benefit from this book I hope not I wrote it in a way that traders of all

experience levels should get something out of it the first couple of chapters

is really just primer kind of like a crash course and commodities so that

anybody that is new to this type of thing hopefully can get will get caught

up and then we get into some more you know complicated topics and strategies

and that sort of thing so I hope that even a beginning trader could pick it up

and read it and understand it yeah absolutely

now what do you look at for as far as commodities or anything else are you

more into the fundamentals the technicals or are you more of a mix I do

a little bit of everything to be honest I mean if I had to kind of break it down

I would say I am mostly look at charts and seasonality and then I also look at

I don't know if you're familiar but the commitment of traders report it's a

report that comes out by the the CFTC the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

puts it out every week and it basically gives us kind of the the long and short

of who's like what type of speculators they separate them into large specs

small specs and commercials and we can see with if each of those groups are

long or short in a particular commodity and then we can use that to maybe you

know guess at future price changes doesn't always work but what we look for

is a market that's overheated so if speculators are just piling money into

one particular trade sometimes that's a red flag for us and we say

okay if everybody's already long the market it's probably going to run out of

buying soon and so we start looking for a counter trend strategy so we do those

sorts of things I do look at some fundamentals but I with commodity

trading when you're trading futures and options everything's on leverage so your

time horizon is usually pretty short I mean we're only trying to speculate on

what's going to happen in the next couple of weeks weeks a couple of months

and so when you're looking at fundamentals it's really hard to guess

what's going to happen in the next few weeks with fundamentals there it's just

it's too slow of a game any fundamental data you're looking at is probably

lagging to three weeks maybe a month and even and it takes a while for

fundamentals even really come into play yo I want to talk about oil if you don't

mind right now the last price was $45 sixty four cents a barrel it seems to be

I wouldn't call it freefall but it seems to be dripping down lately you know what

what's the possible low here what are we looking at well honestly I think like if

you if you take a step back and look at a chart of crude oil over the last

several months and I'm talking like from like roughly November through now it's

really in a pretty defined trading channel the bottom of that channel is

going to come in somewhere around the 43 to $44 a barrel mark and so I think

that's where we're going I think you mentioned we're in the mid 45 area so

we've probably in my I guess we probably have another one the three dollars on

the downside I mean crude oils messy people always want to know exactly where

to buy it should I buy it at 40 420 it really doesn't work that way it's messy

there's stop orders getting hits people are panicking it's emotional so trying

to pick the exact lows as per is really tough but if you can pick within a two

or three dollar range you're probably going to end up doing pretty well

so I'm looking at the low 40s as potentially being a reversal area not

only does the chart say that but if you look at seasonal patterns crude tends to

find some sort of a bottom here in the next couple of days a lot of times it's

just temporary but it is you know it is something that could support the other

market at least in the short term yeah I've been looking at buying

possibly the USO ETF rather than going to futures route although the problem

with buying certain oil products and commodities products in general you have

to deal with deal with the natural decay the contango

rolling forward you know selling the front month contracts and buying the you

know forward month contracts is there any way around that any tips on how to

avoid that kind of thing I mean honestly there's really not any

way to completely avoid it an ETF like like you mentioned is they're basically

doing what we're doing but they're doing it for you so you're basically buying

into a fund that takes your money and then buy his futures contract or sells

futures contracts whatever the fund is doing and so you're you're basically

trading futures indirectly the thing is you're doing it inefficiently there's

good things and bad things about that the good thing is it's not going to move

nearly as fast as a futures contract will because it's not leveraged but the

the bad thing is like you I mean I've had experiences I a couple times I tried

to trade the ung you know the natural gas ETF and I was right in natural gas

natural gas would go up ten percent but my ETF will go up like two percent it

was really frustrating so a lot of that is like you mentioned the contango is

part of it and administrative costs and rebalancing cost because when they're

like when they're trying to base up an ETF on an underlying futures contract

they have to rebalance it every couple of days or so to to keep it in line and

it's super inefficient so what I recommend people and I mean of course

I'm a commodity broker so you can take take it for what it's worth I'm probably

a little biased if you truly want to speculate in the commodity it's it's a

lot more efficient in the futures market and I completely understand not wanting

the leverage because leverage is scary it to work for you or can work against

you but you can eliminate the leverage by just funding the account properly so

for example I mean just hypothetically if crude oil is trading at roughly $50

barrel that means one crude oil futures contract is worth $50,000 if you put

fifty thousand dollars in account and bought one contract you eliminate all

the leverage and have an extremely efficient way to

speculate on the market so there is you know it takes a little money to do it I

grant it but you can take the leverage out of it if you really want to sure I'm

also looking at the precious metals gold and silver you know I've heard some I've

gotten to interview some of the you know the big names in the gold and silver

markets David Morgan Jordan Roy burn people like that and now you I can you

know be proud to add you to the list of the best among the best but you know

I've gotten some really interesting target prices for gold literally I've

heard $10,000 an ounce for gold out a hundred dollars an ounce for silver

realistically I mean what can a somebody who wants to buy and hold some some of

the physical stuff look forward to in the in you know for the rest of 2017 at

least right uh you know I'm not one of those that I'm not a so-called Gold Bug

or somebody that's gonna get really excited about the upside of gold there

are times where I think gold is an excellent i I think you know for

speculative purposes it's worth giving it a shot but I don't think this is one

of them I honestly think gold is probably going to creep back down into

the 12 20 area in the next couple of weeks which is where we started you know

this rally this most recent rally started from that general area I just

don't see anything right now that's that's going to push us above 1300 in

any dramatic way I mean we may run some buy stops up there Gold's really good at

doing that suckering you know the late comer bulls into the market and knocking

out any of the weak shorts before it turns around so that wouldn't shock me I

mean I could easily see thirteen ten thirteen fifteen non something like that

but ultimately I think this probably isn't the time to be aggressively

bullish if we get down to the 12 20s and yeah I think it probably is fair enough

yeah right now gold at twelve eighty one and fifty cents an ounce silver at

seventeen and forty three cents rounding off their

per ounce how about silver what's the outlook I mean obviously Silver's going

to move somewhat similarly with gold although they're not it's not a perfect

correlation but I would probably I see pretty good support and silver somewhere

between sixteen and sixteen thirty so I'd start to get interested in the

upside at those levels but up here I just I don't I have a hard time being

bullish it at these levels up in the 1740 area not a screaming by right now

not in my opinion I could be wrong I mean you know the thing about gold and

silver is they're really emotional markets and and they'll change on a dime

I all it takes is one headline and something unexpected to turn it around

so I you know I could be wrong but chances are it's gonna relax a little

before any buyers come back in sure I'll tell you what if silver hits 16 it's

gonna be hard for me to resist that's for sure sure oh yeah I think it I think

it's attractive down there for sure are you a personal question if you don't

mind are you a stacker yourself do you do collect the physical stuff that coins

the bullion I don't I'm not a big um yeah it's just not I mean I it's just

not my thing I have our time with the bullion because of the bid-ask spread I

mean I know if you're holding it for the long run and you know you probably don't

care that means nothing but for me I look at the biggest for in the futures

markets the ticker two and then you try to buy bullion in you're talking about

giving up like hundreds of dollars in the spread I just I can't do it but you

teach their own everybody the thing is about what investing and trading is the

personality thing you just have to find what's comfortable for you and if you're

doing what's comfortable you're going to make good decisions for you and it'll be

okay in the long run makes sense to me wanted to talk about Carly Garner

trading calm and day Carly de de Carly trading calm first of all what's the

difference between the two websites and what services are currently being

offered there okay so to be 100% honest Carly Gardner trading is really just the

site that we put up for for search engine engine optimization purposes that

way if somebody Google's Carly Garner they get all the information right there

it we do share some are kinds of some of our newsletters and we

do have several educational articles on the site but where we keep up d Carly

trading a lot more frequently that's going to give you all the news and

updates of you know for example webinars that we're doing any articles that we've

written for magazines or anything like that educational material that's fresh

and new and videos will all go on to the carly trading calm and the carly trading

obviously is our brokerage site and Carly Garner trading calm is like I said

for it's really for SEO but it's also really just for people looking for

information about me if they want to know exactly who I am and what I do

right understood and looking at the websites I see that you offer full

services for people who would like for you to you know manage their money you

also assist people who want to manage their own money as well as a newsletter

with the free trial is that correct yeah that is correct

most of just as a disclosure to make sure everyone understands like most of

our clients are self-directed we are a brokerage firm not unlike you know some

of the bigger houses you hear of you know with people trading the difference

between us and them is work I mean obviously we're a boutique shop but we

we do offer online trading we have like 20 to 30 platforms to choose from most

of our clients are trading online but we're what we give them that other

people don't is newsletters with trading recommendations market ideas research

guidance and guess what if you pick up the phone and you have a question or you

have a problem we will answer it right away and we know exactly how to get it

corrected very efficiently we're not going to pass you around or put you on

hold that personalized service is what so

many people are seeking and if they go and visit your your website you know

that that's what they'll get for sure absolutely I want to talk about natty

gas natural gas um I don't know what's what's your outlook on it right now I

don't I don't see any pattern in it can you detect anything uh natural gas has

been pretty chaotic obviously the last several months so anybody that's married

to their positions is getting hammered those that have done well or you know

have been you have to be pretty nimble the way that I see it is

I think we're going to continue to move to grind a little lower I'm looking for

maybe somewhere in the 280 mark maybe even as low as 250 before the market

finds good support if you've looked back at a like a weekly chart or a monthly

chart you'll notice 250 is kind of the area that we've held for the last year

and a half or so and market tends to like to retest those levels and so I

wouldn't be shocked to see 250 but again kind of similar to what I just mentioned

crude if we do - if we do see 250 and not guess I'd probably be super bullish

at that point yeah you're kind of like me which is your value sounds like a

value type of investor you're not the type of person to buy after the run-up

which a lot of people do and yeah right yeah exactly I have a hard time doing

that sometimes that works out it does but more often than not you'll find that

the best trades are or counter trend at least that's been my experience and

finally I have to ask what's it like to meet Cramer you know what he is one of

the nicest people I've ever met and he's funny and he's probably the smartest

person I've ever met he has a photographic memory it's really insane

we read something and he just he can yeah it's unbelievable he's good at what

he does and he's yeah I know people gave him a hard time but the wood the thing I

can say about that is anybody that goes on TV for an hour a day and he has to

fill it with ideas and comments and in recommendations is going to be wrong

from time to time so in the long run he does really well and he means well he's

he's his heart's in the right place that you know hopefully people cut him some

slack yeah that's a good guy he does a good job I I might have I might have

given him a hard time a few times I don't know but you know what though yeah

it does seem like a nice enough guy so yeah that's that's me

hey I'm wrong all the time but the differences I'm not on TV right you know

for the world to see so it's easier for us because we don't you know the world's

not judging our mistakes but you know it is what it is he's he's really really

good at what he does fantastic all right um people need to check out you know

what I'm gonna put dick Harley trading dot-com for

perfect ah there yes that that go on Amazon checkout higher probability

commodity trading both for beginners intermediate and advanced commodities

traders or people interested in that I know you're on Facebook how can people

find you on social media as well as how can they contact you for more

information awesome as they okay so I'm on Twitter

the handle is at Carla Garner's that's pretty easy at CA RL ey garner GA r NER

got it um if you just Google or I'm starting at Google if you Facebook

search D Carly trading will come up there and we post a lot of educational

material articles things like that on on Facebook so and it we're even on

Instagram if you search the Carly trading and Instagram you'll find us so

we hope to see you there gotcha well this has been quite an

education and of course you know we're not making recommendations of what to

buy or what to sell you know you have to everybody do their own due diligence but

at least today I brought some guidelines as to maybe what numbers to look for at

least you know if you're a value investor like me so very good miss Carly

Garner has joined me today thank you so much for joining me on looking at the

markets I really appreciate it you're welcome thank you thank you for watching

please like comment and subscribe and I'll see you next time