馃攳
2/16/2014 Check out LinkedIn (LNKD) - Stock Market Mentor by Dan Fitzpatrick - YouTube
Channel: Stock Market Mentor
[4]
I want to look at LinkedIn ( NYSE:LNKD ).
[15]
LinkedIn ( NYSE:LNKD ) looks like it's
[18]
in the Wile E, Coyote pattern,
that's a
[21]
very well-known pattern that only I
know about.
[24]
Here's the thing: I was looking
at this stock and I remember talking
[30]
about this, that it kind of looked like it
was in what I would call a touch-and-go
[34]
pattern where you look at the
200-day moving average here,
[37]
and the stock is just kind of drifting in
here,
[41]
and then it bounces, and then it doesn't
spring higher it just stays in this
[46]
general area,
[48]
and then it bounces again.
[52]
I've seen a lot of these patterns where
[56]
the stock does just that, it's
been in an uptrend, gets overextended,
[60]
drifts back, gets overextended, drifts
back,
[62]
and then it hits the 200-day moving
average, meanders around there for a
[66]
while,
[66]
and then takes off and goes on its merry
way. Well
[70]
that's really the pattern, and it's
something that takes place
[80]
and it creates support at a specific
level.
[83]
Here we'll call it 200.00, it was
actually a little bit higher than 200.00,
[87]
but
[88]
200.00 works because it's an even number and
then it's easy for me to do math.
[91]
Okay, so now the stocks down below that,
look at the volume,
[96]
it had been trading sideways, in kind of
lackluster volume, not great,
[103]
not bad, just kind of of average; then we get a
big
[108]
down day here,
I'm giving a pearls so pay attention
[112]
to this.
[113]
We're looking here, and
[119]
so far, forget about this stuff, it
[122]
doesn't exist yet, so we'll forget about
that,
[126]
instead I'm looking at this candlestick.
So here was
[130]
support,
[131]
stock goes up, comes back down, and in one
day
[135]
trades on massive volume. Look at
the volume here, much higher
[139]
than any other volume here. It opens
here,
[143]
at the top of the little teeny box, trades
[146]
a little bit higher at some point during
the day, I don't care which, trades all
[151]
the way down
[151]
to test this support level, and then
closes up
[156]
near the open. Now I'll
tell you what I would think when I see
[161]
this test
[162]
of this level, and it passes,
[165]
I would be bullish on this stock, I would
look to buy the stock because I think
[170]
okay,
[171]
big downdraft and a move back up, big
massive volume spike,
[176]
this was a puke, and then now we're
going to get a puke and rally here where
[180]
the stock's going to move up because all
the weak
[182]
hands have been flushed out. Well that's
not what happened, in fact the following
[187]
day the
[187]
stock traded sideways a little, but not
too bad, but enough to give you pause,
[192]
like enough to have you look
at this and say, "Well
[195]
I know technical analysis, at
least the way Fitzpatrick talks about it,
[201]
isn't predictive, it's informative."
[205]
By the way, those that say technical
analysis is predictive,
[208]
I predict that you'll go broke listening
to their predictions.
[212]
Technical analysis is informative;
[215]
we see what should happen based on our
assessment of psychology here,
[220]
of emotional commitment. We got flushed
out of a lot of weak sisters,
[225]
the stock's up, it's been in this
touch and go pattern,
[228]
and now I'm expecting this stock to move
higher. Well,
[232]
wrong Horshack; it didn't do that did
it?
[235]
Instead, the stock was weak here,
[240]
and then let's say you
we're already buying here,
[245]
you should really be either scaling back
your positions,
[248]
or zooming way in, getting out your
reading glasses,
[252]
staring at the screen from a really
close level
[255]
to where you get radioactive from
all of the EMF's,
[259]
and watching this for a break of
support.
[264]
So we got this, and keep in mind now,
[267]
let's just say this
is a basic day here,
[270]
that's the high, that's the low. The
next day we get a higher high
[274]
and a higher low, that's kind of cool.
The following day,
[278]
by the way, these are all red boxes, right,
all
[282]
dark boxes meaning the close was lower
than the open.
[286]
So here we get a lower low, a lower high,
[289]
and a lower low, and a retest of this
[293]
support level; so the following day,
[298]
when the stock hits there, if you were
in the first place, because this would be
[302]
aggressive.
[303]
What I would want to do, I didn't get in,
even though I was looking at it and I'm
[307]
thinking, this is
[308]
potentially bullish, I would want o see
more;
[312]
I never saw that, but let's say you
jumped the gun,
[315]
you got in right here, right here, where
ever, you're down a little bit, not that
[319]
much, let's say you bought right at the
top at 213.00; now you're down
[323]
to 200.03, you've lost $10.00 on a
$213.00
[328]
stock, it's not even 5 percent.
[331]
So you're looking at this
[335]
and as soon as the stock crosses this
[338]
support line you need to ditch this
thing, you need to get out of there,
[343]
because it's showing you that what should
have happened
[347]
is not what did happen, and so you're
really surprised right?
[350]
Do you think you're the only person
that's surprised? No,
[354]
I think there are a lot of people that are
surprised, and this is a stock now that's
[357]
in full-on correction mode. By the way, what
I mean by Wile E, Coyote pattern is,
[361]
remember the old roadrunner thing where
[363]
there's a cliff here
[367]
and coyote's running after the roadrunner,
and he gets out a little too far over the cliff
[372]
and looks down and
[375]
Boom! And he falls down. So this is a thing
where the stock just seems to go over
[379]
the cliff and then
[381]
moves down. Look at the weekly chart;
this really gives you
[385]
a good indication of how things have
changed.
[389]
This is a big change, I will say
[392]
if the stock happens to move up and test
200.00
[396]
I think that's a good shorting
opportunity.
[399]
Frankly I think, as long as
you had some discipline because
this has got some
[405]
downside momentum now, and when downside
momentum gets too big,
[409]
too fast it can be due for a
snap-back;
[412]
but if you're aggressive I think you can
short this thing even right now.
[416]
But again, just remember as a stock moves
lower
[419]
it gets cheaper, and at some point
[422]
value guys are going to come in and start
pushing this stock up, or shorts are going
[427]
to cover,
[427]
but the trend here is clearly low, it's
down, its downward.
[431]
An aggressive short would be right now,
[435]
and you just use a trailing stop. Don't
short this stock
[443]
and let it move up to here, the 50-day moving
average,
[447]
you close your short out because you can't
stand the pain,
[450]
and then have the stock go down here; it
could happen, don't let that happen
[455]
to you.
[455]
So how ever you're going to trade it, either
aggressively right now, use a tight stop
[460]
because guess what?
[461]
You get stopped out, you take a little
loss, now you're waiting for a better
[464]
shorting opportunity,
[466]
or for the opportunity to just stand
aside and say, "You know what?
[470]
This stock is not going down any lower
so I will just stay away."
[474]
What we're talking about here is
risk management,
[478]
I'm not talking about trading, I'm
talking about managing your risk.
[483]
If you can assess what's happening with
the stock,
[487]
not predict okay, that's for the Wizard
of Oz
[490]
and various other folks who find all
kinds have meaning
[494]
in squiggly lines and boxes; I find
information in there
[498]
not meaning. So if you're with me on
the that, that you're just looking at the
[502]
information that you have,
[504]
making an assessment of which group
of traders
[508]
is really in control, is really
dominating the action, whether it's
[512]
aggressive selling or aggressive
[514]
buying, and whether that's
changing or not. If that's the way
[518]
you look at the market, and by the way,
if it's not it should be
[521]
because you'll make more money and you'll
certainly lose less;
[525]
then if you can do that then you'll be
able to trade this stock, because your
[529]
sense is,
[530]
I think we go lower, I don't think it's
too late too short because
[535]
of this weekly chart,
[539]
this thing looks like it's got plenty of
downside momentum. However,
[543]
if it does start rallying, now I'm
looking at the daily chart,
[546]
and this is what I'm seeing,
[549]
I'm seeing these
highs,
[553]
these lows, so I would rather it be more
conservative for me too short
[557]
on a rebound to the top of the channel,
[561]
because then what I can do, since I'm
shorting the stock closer to resistance
[565]
as opposed to a breakdown of support,
[567]
I can set a fairly tight buy stop. So you
can see how this is actually the more
[572]
conservative
[573]
of the two, if you can get it. But if
the stock doesn't pull back,
[578]
I mean don't let the thing go to 150.00
without you being short.
[581]
So you either take this trade, or if
you're taking this right now, frankly,
[586]
depending on how big
your position size is, put a stop there,
it's
[590]
kind of tough to put a stop up at
around 200.00 or so
because that's
[594]
over a 10 percent
loss that you're going to take.
[597]
The whole deal is,
[607]
you manage risk, the risk of missing out
on great profits, so you want to be long
[613]
or short,
[614]
versus the risk of losing your assets,
[617]
which is why you want to always manage your
position sizes;
[621]
maybe you're not
going to hit a 10-bagger
[625]
but then on the other hand you
haven't risked your entire portfolio
[630]
on something either.
Most Recent Videos:
You can go back to the homepage right here: Homepage