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08.07.2021: How USD and rival currencies respond to Fed (S&P500, DXY, USD/CAD, BTC/USD) - YouTube
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The US stock market closed higher on Wednesday
even despite the Fed鈥檚 intention to adopt
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more hawkish stance on monetary policy.
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What did traders find out from the Fed鈥檚
minutes of the meeting held in June?
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The rate-setting committee was surprised about
a surge in inflation in April and May.
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However, judging by the policy decisions,
this acceleration was defined as a one-time
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and temporary spike.
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All in all, the regulator did not come up
with any proposals to fine-tune monetary policy
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immediately.
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The question of the day is how market participants
will respond to a data on unemployment claims.
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We see that the actual number of first-time
claims for unemployment benefits stayed flat
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as on the previous week.
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The thing is that analysts had anticipated
a notable decrease.
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Market participants are likely to give a mixed
response.
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Everyone found confirmation of one鈥檚 own
expectations in the weekly update on the labor
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market and the Fed鈥檚 minutes.
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Someone thinks that the central bank is not
ready yet for clearly hawkish policy.
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Someone reckons the Fed dropped a hint about
the first rake hike by the year end.
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The dynamic in the US stock market confirms
the case.
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Yesterday both the Dow Jones and the S&P500
rose 0.3%.
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The Nasdaq closed flat despite obvious fluctuations.
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Commonly, the hi-tech stocks are more vulnerable
to signals about the prospects of monetary
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tightening.
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The S&P500 traded at about 4,358.
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It is expected to trade today in the corridor
of 4,310 to 4,380.
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The US dollar is firmly trading at the highest
levels since early April.
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The US currency is propped up by high consumer
inflation in the US and expectations of monetary
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tightening.
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The US dollar index climbed to 92.70 yesterday.
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Today the price could shift between 92.20
and 93.20.
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To develop a new bullish wave, the greenback
needs fresh evidence of rising inflation or
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the Fed鈥檚 actual revision of rhetoric.
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The Canadian dollar is extending weakness
against the US dollar amid the second bearish
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wave of oil prices.
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Yesterday the USD/CAD pair grew to 1.2540.
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Apparently, the loonie is relaxed after a
too rapid advance recently.
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Analysts predict the currency pair will be
able to reach the upper border of the corridor
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between 1.2470 and 1.2600.
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Large bitcoin investors are estimating how
much they have lost amid the recent slump
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in the crypto market.
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Today the number one cryptocurrency sank over
2,000 dollars.
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Now it is trading at near 32,500 dollars.
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Bitcoin began its losing streak after it had
grown to 35,000 dollars but failed to hold
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at this level.
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So, the ongoing decline is of pure technical
nature.
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How will it move in the near time?
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Perhaps the price will go down a bit lower,
but then it will rebound off the level of
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32,000.
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If case Bitcoin slides deeper, the price is
likely to plunge as low as 28,000 dollars
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per token.
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To sum up, the US stock market looks healthy
with prospects for a further rally.
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Nevertheless, large investors need a good
correction, at least 5%.
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As usual on Thursday, investors monitor weekly
updates from the US Labor Department.
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The number of initial jobless claims stayed
flat last week at 373,000.
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Importantly, the number of continuing unemployment
claims eventually went downwards.
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It decreased by almost 140,000 last week,
so nowadays 3.34 million Americans live on
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the dole.
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The US stock market seems to be poised for
a dip.
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Stay tuned and see you later!
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