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Betting Strategy That Works | Make an Income Betting on Sports - YouTube
Channel: Caan Berry Pro Trader
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so when it comes to betting strategy
there's only really one thing that
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actually works the reason for it is
based on facts maths and probability
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it's a very same reason that bet365
annual revenue was two point nine eight
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billion in 2019 they've got you all
looking in the wrong direction you see
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it doesn't matter if you pick a winner
eight times out of ten spot a horse with
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a good turn effort or even find a
football team with new up-and-coming
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players all of these things are what the
traditional media will have you focus
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your attention on and it's completely
wrong as I'll prove to you in this
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week's Youtube upload but it's not all
doom and gloom because when you know how
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betting strategy is incredibly simple
especially when you consider all of the
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tools and technology that's now
available to bettors online so in this
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video I'm going to explain what makes a
successful betting strategy and where
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you can find value for yourself all the
pros know is fact the simplest way to
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explains for an example imagine a two
horse race where both horses are of
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equal ability nothing separates them the
law of probability dictates each horses
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chance of winning is 50% like a coin
flip no matter how many times we rerun
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the race that average winning
distribution is 50% now why am I telling
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you this because at the core of every
successful betting strategy there's
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probability or implied chance as is
sometimes referred to knowing the
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implied chance is the most accurate way
to gauge if betting odds are value or
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not and to be successful you need value
to win you see it doesn't matter if you
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choose the right horse four times out of
five in the example if you weren't
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getting value the short-term results
would be random distribution but over
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the long term you'd lose it's a fact the
true payout is in line with probability
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this is exactly what bookmakers make so
much money simple maths they take the
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probability of something happening and
convert the price into betting odds and
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then offer you a lower one so to have a
successful betting strategy you must do
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the complete opposite it's the only
thing that works this of course leads us
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to the most important question how do
you identify value next I'll tell you
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but before I do I'd like to ask you a
favor if you find this video of you
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tap the like button down below and
subscribe to this channel please so how
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do you identify value for your betting
strategy first you need to know the
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implied chance of an outcome or true
odds as if sometimes referred to but
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this can be a problem as it's a
complicated task so it suggests a far
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quicker and easier way that everybody
can do just look at the betting
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exchanges close to the start is the
closest indicator to true odds you'll
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find especially when you learn how to
factor in trading volumes the reason
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this works is simple wisdom of the crowd
a well-documented phenomenon based on
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the law of averages being close to the
event start is also important as it
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provides the most efficient result with
a larger data sample this is only the
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first part though as we'll give you a
good indication of true price then you
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need to find a bigger price on that
outcome by doing this you'll massively
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increase the amount you win the more you
do it the more you'll win a quick
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example to illustrate that would be if
your selections got a 25% chance of
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winning that odds should be 4.0 if you
get the 20% price even though your bet
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has a 25% chance of winning that's a 5
percent profit margin over the long term
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so if you bet 10 pounds a 4.0 over a
hundred sample bets you've more than
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likely breakeven with 25 winning bets of
40 pound total in a thousand pound
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return which is of course the same
amount you staked in the first place 100
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bets a 10 pound now if we take the same
sample and add in our 5% margin the
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result is as follows 10 pound at 5.0
over a hundred bets you get 25 winning
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bets of 50 pound total in return of
1,250 pound but you need to remember you
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only risked that same 1000 pound in the
previous example it doesn't take rocket
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scientist to realize that's 250 pound
value for you but thats not all there's
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more to maximizing profit which is where
it gets really interesting so once you
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know the true price and find one of
value we move to staking because that's
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another part of the puzzle the stakes
must be relative to value if there's a
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bigger margin state bigger it's simple
like a business if you had a product
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with a bigger margin and there's
opportunity to do so you should work
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hard to sell more of those items doing
the opposite is just plain stupid
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but everything's about price not the
horse team or player they're pretty
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irrelevant the easiest way to find value
is in change one of my favorite quotes
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hits a now square on the head in times
of change learners inherit the earth
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while the learned find themselves
beautifully equipped to deal with world
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that no longer exists
successful betting strategy is no
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different sports with fast changing odds
are the easiest way to find value horse
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racing and greyhounds are prime examples
particularly in the final ten minutes
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before the event starts learning about
what moves a price is key in this respect
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anticipating a move and being one of
the first to exploit price is the most
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reliable betting strategy you'll come
across it's an in-depth topic so check
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out the video courses at Caan Berry
for proper guidance and support the
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number one thing you don't want to do is
make decisions based on gut feeling or
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fancy or even worse follow a tipster
particularly if they want you to click
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their link talking of which check out
these two videos that are previously
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published on this YouTube channel and
don't forget to subscribe
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