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What a Supreme Court ruling ending Roe v. Wade would mean for reproductive rights - YouTube
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John yang.
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Judy: For more on the impact,
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both inside the court and around
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the country, I'm joined by
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Marcia Coyle, chief Washington
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correspondent for the national
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law journal.
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And Mary Ziegler, a Florida
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state university law professor
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and the author of "Abortion and
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the law in America."
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Welcome back to the newshour for
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both of you.
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Let me start with you, Marcia.
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Given the sense of the status of
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this, this is an opinion that
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was written some time ago.
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It is subject to being changed,
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before the court actually issues
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an opinion.
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Help us understand what we have
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here.
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Marcia: Ok, duty.
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The first thing I looked at when
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I saw the draft opinion was that
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it was marked first draft.
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It also said on the first page
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of the opinion that it had been
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circulated to all of the
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justices on February 10, the
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court held oral arguments in
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this abortion case out of
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Mississippi in December.
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So this is obviously, as a first
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draft, a very early opinion.
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It does not mean that it may not
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last until the final decision.
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But I will tell you this, that
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during the supreme court's
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deliberative process, first
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drafts often go through multiple
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drafts, not unusual for 20
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drafts or more, and much can
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change during the drafting
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process.
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So we really will not know what
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the court is actually going to
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say until the final decision
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comes out.
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Judy: And Mary, let's step back
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a moment.
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Remind us how many people get
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abortions in this country every
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year, who are they, and how
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could that be affected if this
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is the decision the court hands
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down?
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Mary: The abortion rate has been
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declining, but it is still
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roughly, estimates about one in
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four people of reproductive age
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have abortions in their
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lifetime, is -- which is a lot
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of people.
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We estimate between 26 states
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will outlaw most or all
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abortions of the supreme court
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reverses roe.
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There are a combination of what
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we called trigger laws which has
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some kind of provision that will
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make the law automatically go
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into effect if roe is gone.
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And there are zombie laws, laws
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that were criminal on the books
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before roe that have been kept
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on the books and could spring
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back to life if roe is gone.
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That will affect people across
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the midwest.
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We know that people of color
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have abortions at
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disproportionately high rates
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and we would imagine criminal
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abortion laws, if they are
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enforced against patients and
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doctors, would
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disproportionately be enforced
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against people of color because
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those are people in the most
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heavily policed communities.
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Judy: Continuing with that line
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of thought, you have done work
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looking at what would happen on
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the first day after the supreme
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court were to hand down a
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decision like this.
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According to the pro-abortion
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rights group, the good mocker
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institute, they say there are 26
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states poised to restrict
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abortion right away.
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What would that look like?
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Mary: There is the messy process
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of who is going to certify that
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roe V. Wade has been certified.
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If it resembles what we see in
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the draft, it will take a genius
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to figure out that roe has been
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overturned.
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Some states require the attorney
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general to certify there has
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been an overturning before a
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trigger lock and go into effect.
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In other places, the process
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will be messier.
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There is a state constitutional
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litigation in Michigan, for
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example.
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There may be back before
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criminal laws go into effect.
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We imagine if the court is this
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direct as it seems to be in this
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draft, that there will be little
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drama in most places that
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abortions will be criminal in
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short order.
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Judy: As we know, a lot of
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politics here.
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This is a deeply divisive and
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political issue.
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I just want to cite the latest
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pbs newshour NPR marist poll.
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This was last -- from last week.
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It shows Americans by an 11
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point margin that Democrats do a
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better job handling the issue of
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abortion.
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We would remind everyone that
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back in February, 3% of people
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said this should be the top
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issue.
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Can we project ahead to what
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difference this could make in
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elections this year?
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Mary: I think it is reconciling
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those two poles.
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We have reason to believe that
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large numbers of independents
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and Republicans don't want to
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roe V. Wade overturned.
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They may not be comfortable with
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the morality of abortion, they
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are not excited about the
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prospect of roe being
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overturned.
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The question for Democrats is
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whether they can translate that
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into votes and whether voters
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make abortion a priority.
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That 3% number is probably lower
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than it would be in a world with
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no roe V. Wade, whether it is
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high enough to translate into
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anything concrete for Democrats
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in 2022 or 2024 remains to be
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seen.
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Judy: I want to come back with
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you to the justices who sided
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with justice Alito in this early
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draft of the opinion.
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They were all trump appointees.
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They voted with him, again, an
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early draft, which would in
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effect overturn roe.
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Let's go back and listen to what
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these three justices, that is
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just as Amy coney Barrett,
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justice Kavanaugh, and justice
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Gorsuch, said when they were
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going through their confirmation
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hearings.
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>> Judges cannot just wake up
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one day and say I have an
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agenda, I like guns, I hate
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guns.
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>> One of the important things
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to keep in mind about roe V.
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Wade is that it has been
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reaffirmed many times over the
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past 45 years.
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>> That's the law of the land.
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I accept the law of the land,
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senator.
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Judy: Listening to that, how
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does that square with what you
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see here?
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Marcia: I think every supreme
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court nominee who goes before
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the senate judiciary committee
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claims that roe and kc are
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settled law.
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I think it is time that we all
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realize that that is
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meaningless.
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Yes, they are settled law, and
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so are many other supreme court
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decisions.
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But it does not mean that they
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can't be overruled.
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They are a constitutional based
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decision would -- which gives
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the court more liberty in terms
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of overturning advantage does a
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statutory decision.
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Settled law, Timmy, means
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nothing -- to me, means nothing.
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Judy: In the last question for
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you, Marcia, the very fact, the
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astonishing fact of this leak.
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This is rare.
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It does not happen very often.
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What do you think it means and
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what do you think it means for
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the court going forward?
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Marcia: That is a good question.
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I think there are two things
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that we can look at here.
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One is what does it mean for the
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court going forward?
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I think the leak itself probably
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means the court is going to be
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doing some internal rethinking
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about its processes, to ensure
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greater secrecy.
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And how that affects other
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ability to deliberate and
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communicate with each other, I
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don't know.
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We will have to wait and see.
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But it also is a question of how
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the ultimate decision of --
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affects the public's perception
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of the court's legitimacy, which
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you know a number of the
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justices recently have been very
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concerned about the court's
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legitimacy in the eyes of the
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public.
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In the court's approval rating
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has been declining.
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If it stands, this is a decision
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that overrules precedence that
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the majority of Americans say
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don't overrule.
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That has to have some kind of
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impact, and we will just have to
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wait and see what that means for
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the court itself.
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Judy: On this today when we are
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digesting a big piece of
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information, we want to thank
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