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STOP DOING PARLAY BETS!!! By Statistics Professor - YouTube
Channel: Professor MJ
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parlays are super popular among Sports
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Bettors however the truth is they are
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sucker bets this video will prove it and
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might save you thousands of dollars in
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the long run
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I'm Professor MJ and I teach statistics
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to University students in Canada
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make sure you watch this video Until the
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End I'll show you jaw dropping numbers
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that will convince you that single
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Wagers are so much better than parley
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bits you will also hear about a mistake
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made over another mistake that many
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gamblers do and I'll share with you the
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long situation where doing a party could
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be a smart idea let's rock and roll
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[Music]
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part number one what is a parley bed
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first let me explain what the parliament
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is just in case you don't know it yet
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a parlay is a single wager that combines
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two or more bets into one
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in order to win your party all of your
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bets must be winners those types of bets
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are popular for one reason
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you get a chance to win big money by
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risking only a small amount
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for example risking 100 on an 18 party
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May reward you with over seventeen
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thousand dollars in potential profit wow
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that sounds exciting right
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part number two how to calculate
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expected profit
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this is a critical section if you wish
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to understand the rest of this video and
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it also represents basic mathematics
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that is essential to your long-term
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success in the sports betting world
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when you make a bet your expected profit
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is obtained as follows the potential net
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gain times the probability of winning
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miners your potential loss times the
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probability of losing
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Let's do an example
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suppose a guy offers you to bet on the
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outcome of a dice roll
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in other words you must try to predict
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whether the dice will show one two three
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four five or six
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you clearly have one chance out of six
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to make the correct call while having a
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5 chance out of 6 probability of losing
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the conditions are as follows
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if you win the guy will give you eight
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dollars
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if you lose you must pay him one dollar
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is this a good bet well let's see what
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your expected profit is on a single dice
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roll
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your expected profit is eight dollars
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times one chance out of six minus one
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dollar times five chance out of six and
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that equals to plus 50 cents
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since the expected profit is positive
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you should accept this proposition
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the third part of this video is called
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how to interpret expected profit
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this is where many people get confused
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pay close attention you may not find it
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easy to grasp in the previous example
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you can expect to earn a 50 Cent profit
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on each dice roll
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obviously if you play the game just once
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there is no way you can end up with a 50
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Cent profit exactly you will either lose
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one dollar or win eight dollars the
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expected profit should be viewed as a
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long-term thing
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if you play the game a large number of
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times you can expect to earn 50 cents on
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average per dice roll
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for example suppose the guy who made
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this proposition is willing to play the
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game 10 000 times with you
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your total profit after those 10 000
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roll dices is expected to be fairly
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close to 10 000 times 50 cents equals
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plus five thousand dollars
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maybe you will end up winning 4 800 or
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5100 but it should be close to five
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thousand
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the larger the sample size the more
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likely you are to have a total profit
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that's close to its expected value
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part number four return on investment
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you will often hear the term return on
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investment or Roi in the sports betting
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world
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it gives you a quick indication of how
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good or bad a bet is it can be obtained
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by using the following formula
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Roi equals expected profit divided by
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amount wagered
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let's calculate the ROI in the previous
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example the dice roll shall we
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the ROI is equal to 50 Cent over one
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dollar which equals to 50 percent
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in this experiment we were putting one
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dollar at risk since this is how much we
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were losing in the case of a missed
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prediction
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that's why I have entered one dollar as
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the amount wagered
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the ROI indicates what percentage of the
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amount wagered you can expect to win or
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lose on the BET under study
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in the dice roll example we are
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projected to make a profit equivalent to
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50 percent of our betting amount that's
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huge
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this means that if instead of putting
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one dollar at risk we were betting
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twenty dollars then our expected net
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gain would become twenty dollars times
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fifty percent equals ten dollars per
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dice roll instead of just 50 cents it's
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time for Section number five what is the
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ROI of a typical single Sports wager
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when betting against the spread Bettors
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will usually get minus 110 odds or 1.91
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in this small format
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this means that you must put 110 dollars
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at risk in order to get a potential net
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gain of 100 bucks
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a huge number of people believe they can
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pick winners against the spread at more
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than a 50 rate
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the reality is that they don't
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suppose you are an average Sports better
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that wins 50 of its Wagers against the
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spread
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what is your Roi on a single bit
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let's use the case where you are putting
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11 at risk for a potential net gain of
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10 bucks
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your expected profit is 10 bucks times
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50 percent minus 11 bucks times 50
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percent
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in the end you get a Roi of minus 4.5
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percent
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in other words you are going to lose an
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average 4.5 percent of your risk amount
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on each bit
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again that is easier to understand by
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taking a long-term View
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suppose you make one such wager every
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single day
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how much can you expect to lose at the
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end of a full year
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over
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365 days you are therefore going to bet
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a grand total of 11 times 365 days
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equals to
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4015 bucks
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since your Roi is minus 4.5 percent you
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can expect to finish the year with a
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loss of
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180.68 cents
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part number six what is the ROI of a
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parley bit
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now keep in mind the minus 4.5 percent
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ROI we just saw on the single Sports
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wager
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as you're about to find out things are
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going to get much uglier on parley bits
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throughout this section we are going to
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pretend as if you are always betting
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teams with minus 110 odds or 1.91 in
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this model
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that will make things easier to
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understand
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let's start with the two team parley and
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let's assume you are betting ten dollars
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the amount chosen here is irrelevant and
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won't change the ROI
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so what is your potential return on such
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a bit the answer is ten dollars times
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1.91 times 1.91 equals 36.44
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once the parley bet is settled your
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bankroll will either decrease by 10 or
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increase by 26.44
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your probability of winning a two team
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parlay is one chance out of four
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and obviously your probability of losing
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the wager is three out of four
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based on those figures the expected
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profit is
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26.44 times one quarter minus ten
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dollars times three quarter
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so in the end you get the ROI of minus
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8.9 percent
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as you can see your Roi is twice as
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worse as the one we obtained on single
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Wagers which was minus 4.5 percent
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this means you are going to lose money
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twice faster if you do two team parlays
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instead of single Wagers
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and again that's just the tip of the
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iceberg
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if you combine more than two teams on
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your parlays it gets even worse
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the table on your screen shows the ROI
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for different types of Wagers
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the calculations were made using the
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same logic as before
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I sincerely hope those numbers convince
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you to stop doing parlays
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now let's see what happens if you put
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twenty dollars at risk every day for a
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full year
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how much are you expected to lose at the
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end of the year depending on the BET
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type you are making
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well the answer is on your screen right
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now
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those are incredibly convincing numbers
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divide or lesson don't do parlay's body
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section number seven a mistake over
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another mistake
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ouch
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here is a common question I see posted
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online on a weekly basis
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quote I did an eight team parley and
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I've won the first seven legs should I
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hedge my bet end of quote
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in case you don't know what hedging
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means it involves placing a wager on the
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opposite side of your original debt
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so let's say you're 8 bet on your 18
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parlay is on Team 8 who is about to face
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Team B
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hedging or parley bit would involve
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betting Team B in order to secure a
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guaranteed profit
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the popular belief is that hedging is a
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good idea it is not plain and simple
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I wrote another article and will make a
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video out of it that clearly showed why
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you should not hedge your parlay bets
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in summary doing a partly bet is a bad
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idea to start with
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then many sports Bettors make another
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bad decision by hedging their parties
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in the long run those two things will
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ruin you plain and simple
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part number eight the long situation
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where a parley bed is a good idea
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there is only one specific occasion
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where I do parlays personally
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whenever I have an account whose
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bankroll has grown substantially enough
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to make me worry about being limited or
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banned by the Sportsbook I do a few
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parlays
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that will make me look like a loser who
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simply got lucky
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trust me as soon as you make parley beds
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the bookie tags you as a square better
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Ori casual better
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these types of gamblers have a very high
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chance of losing money in the long run
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in the eye of Sportsbook managers such
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Bettors are no threat whatsoever to beat
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them
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the final and Ninth part of this video a
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piece of advice saving you thousands of
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dollars
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many people don't realize how staying
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away from pearly bits would save them a
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ton of money
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as you saw earlier a person doing three
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team parlays instead of single bets we
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lose money three times faster
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someone doing 18 farleys will get into a
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hole seven times faster
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do you realize how much parlays are for
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suckers
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no matter how good or bad you are at
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picking winners if you stick to single
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Wagers you will save a lot of cash
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this piece of advice is worth hundreds
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or thousands of dollars to many of you
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in the long run
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[Music]
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I hope you liked this video If so I
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invite you to comment below or better
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yet to subscribe to this sports betting
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YouTube channel
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not only do I give away betting lessons
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but I also provide daily picks on many
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sports including the NFL Major League
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Baseball the NHL and the NBA so go ahead
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and hit the Subscribe button so that I
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help you grow your sports betting
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bankroll as much as possible I'm
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Professor MJ PhD in statistics thanks
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for watching and I'll see you in another
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video very soon bye bye
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foreign
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