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Technical Analysis of Stock Market - YouTube
Channel: Joseph Hentges
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hello again everyone this is joe hentges
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with Beyond the Chart and in this
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technical analysis of the stock market
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video we're going to take a look at the
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new york stock exchange composite index
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the NYSE composite index on a daily and
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weekly basis check two of my key indicators
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three of the key ETFs, semiconductors, home
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builders and financials and then what
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the heck is going on with the Baltic Dry
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Index stay tuned
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alright let's start off here with the
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New York composite it is down 25 points on
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Friday couple of closes above the 10
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exponential moving average but right now
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it looks like this is starting to roll
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over this trend line is from the
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February low on this trendline this is
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my preferred Elliott Wave count we'll
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look at it a little bit more on a weekly
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basis so you can see the bigger picture right
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now this looks to me... we got this lower
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low here
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that was last Thursday a week ago
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Thursday went to a lower low we bounced
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up and now we just look like we could be
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rolling over here we've got the moving
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averages aligned to the downside the 10
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below the 21 simple below the 55 simple
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and the break of this trendline you know
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we started to break it here we just kind
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of pulled back and hugged it and now
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we're separating a little bit so we need
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to watch that very closely you know this
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i've got us in...let me move this over...
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I've got us in intermediate wave one
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down intermediate wave 2 back and
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starting and into intermediate wave 3
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the big caution here is that when
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intermediate wave 3 when a third wave to
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the downside gets going it can really
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really explode pretty fast all you gotta
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do is look back at the kind of down
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moves we had in August into September of
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2015 and December into January
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into February earlier this year so it
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can happen very very fast and the timing
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of the wave counts right
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now is telling us that that's what's
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going to be coming so that's the picture
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of the the big picture of the New York
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composite let's take a look at a couple
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of our indicators let's start off with the VIX
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the VIX, the volatility is pulling back
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the VIX is pulling back which means that
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you know the they call this the fear index
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because they drive it higher and they
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inflate the the premiums on options
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trading when all the sudden there's a
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whole lot of fear and uncertainty well
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there's not a whole lot of fear and
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uncertainty going on right now we had a
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couple of days of it here two weeks ago
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and then all of a sudden everything just
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pulling back and calming down now this
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could change very very quickly and you
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notice i got this trend line here across
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the peaks when it comes up if we were to
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turn and come back up here and break
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this trend line it could spike and get a
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very active very fast
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the other one I want to take a look at is
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to go back to the New York composite and
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because i have it on the New York
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composite, it's the McClellan oscillator
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above 150...let me zoom back out a little
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bit... is severely overbought and below
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minus 150 is severely oversold we got
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down to that severely oversold threshold
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and just kind of clustered in there and
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then all the sudden the market rallied
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and relieved all that pressure so where
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are we? we're dead neutral... dead neutral on
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the market right now so could we have
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another way of the selling kick in
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absolutely could we have a buying spurt
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absolutely based on where we're sitting
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with the McClellan oscillator but the
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whole point is the market is neutral and
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the pressures the selling pressure has
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been relieved and now we have to watch
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the price to say okay you know what is
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it telling us what's going to happen and
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right now like I said when I look at the
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the price action that's happening in
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here it looks like it's starting to roll
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over
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alright so let's take a look at
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semiconductors on a weekly basis very
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very strong this has been, we've talked
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about this, continues to trend above the
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10-week moving average
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in here, okay. this is a weekly chart so super
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strong went to new highs went way above
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you know the 2015 highs but we are now
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starting to get some bearish
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divergence kicking in on my RSI
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indicator and a couple of the others
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indicators and so right now I think
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that's a cautionary flag, all of a sudden
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would I sell this I
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mean short it
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no I think you gotta wait for price to
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confirm that this is going to move and
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start to roll over and indicate it wants
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to come down and it hasn't done that yet
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alright the next one is the homebuilders
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the homebuilders on the other hand are
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breaking trend lines moving averages
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crossing to the downside and again this
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is a weekly chart so you can see how
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weak this is looking for the home
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builders and this does look like a big
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topping formation that's going on now if
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you to call this a head-and-shoulders
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type thing i'm not calling it that
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because this you know i like to see a
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lot more symmetry in it, just not quite
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seeing it but it could develop into it
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and of course it will be very negative
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if you were to come down and and break
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below that neckline or that trend line
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I've got drawn there, the financials are
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kind of halfway in between I mean
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they're not they haven't gone to new
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high and they're not breaking down like
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the homebuilders yet and then just kind
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of like trudging along the 10-week
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moving average of a couple of weeks
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closing above that two out of three well
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actually last three closing ...
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did I say above, I meant below, couple of
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weeks below to the last three weeks
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above and so we're just kinda like
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trudging along and ever so slightly
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pushing higher in here now the real
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question is is it going to continue to
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do that and we just got to watch the the
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price on here but the point is this has
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not gone to new highs yet and hasn't
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really broken down so it's kind of like
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a little bit in no man's land right now
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alright that's it for the key market
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ETFs let's take a look at the Baltic Dry
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Index the Baltic Dry Index is now
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breaking a trend line here this trend
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line for the first time and this is
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the trend line from the February low
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this could be a pretty negative
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indication now granted this is just a
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little bitty break in here but that's
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how it starts and this is something that
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it's done and broken these trendlines
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consistently over the last many years
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several years and so what I've done is i
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watch this and you can see this is...let me
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zoom back out this is all of the price
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action on the Baltic Dry Index it was
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created 1985
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ok so you can see this huge peak that
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happened so went into the right into the
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financial crisis here right before the
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financial crisis and then here's the
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picture of the global economy and the
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global shipping of the Baltic Dry Index
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and it's been struggling to recover as
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it keeps plunging to lower new low new
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all-time lows ok and so right now we've
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got a break that's occurring so we need
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to watch and see what's going on any
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changes coming out of China any
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devaluation of the Chinese Yuan and any
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other indicators like that but this is
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the first little signal as far as I'm
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concerned... so that's the picture for the
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week and we'll continue to watch
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everything if you're watching the video
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anywhere besides besides
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the website head on over to the website
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and check out the other posts I've got for
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you, and the membership and other
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things and if you felt the video was
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helpful hit the like button and share
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the video with your friends and family
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on social media
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alright everyone have a great weekend
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we'll talk to you on the next video
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