Introductory Macroeconomics The Labour Market 2 & Okun's Law by XP Education (Xiaoping Li) - YouTube

Hello everyone! (大家好!)

My name is Xiaoping. (我是Xiaoping) (●′ω`●)

I’m the manager director of XP education. (我是XP教育机构的总经理)

Today I want to bring you guys the first lecture series about lecture 7, (今天我想把Lecture 7，)

, which is on the “labour market”. （，关于劳务市场的主要内容传授给大家）

Now, essential what I am trying to do today is (我今天要做的基本上是)

pretty much go through all the major elements what I think is important (把所有我认为重要的知识点给大家梳理一遍)

and also to cover what exactly is the labour force. (也会涵盖到到底什么是“劳动力”。)

When we characterize what is exactly the labour market, (在我们说到劳动力市场时，)

It is always good to make sure you guys [draw a diagram] (请确保你们把图画出来，）

so on the x axe, we have number of workers, (在这里X轴代表了工人数量，)

and on the vertical axe, we have the wages (而Y轴则代表了工资）

Now our labour supply is gonna be upward sloping and our labour demand is gonna be downward sloping. （劳动力供给这条线是一条向上倾斜的直线， 而需求则是向下倾斜的）

Based on introductory micro, you probably thinks that the supply is the firm, (在微观经济中，你大概了解到公司就是供给方，）

but unfortunately, when we talk about the labour market, ( 但当我们谈到劳动力市场时，)

the labour supply is actually [the workers], （供给是其实指的是工人，）

because it is the workers actually supply the labour. (因为事实上工人才是供给劳动力的那一方）

now who demand the labour? （那么是谁需要劳动力呢？ ）

Obviously, it must be [the firms] who are actually demanding for the labour. （很明显，公司才是真正需求这些劳动力的那一方。）

Now, the next particular point I wanna cover that is important in Lecture 7 is that, （接下来，我想说的下一个Lecture 7的重点是，）

what exactly constitute the labour force （到底什么组成了劳动力）

The labour forces is essentially the sum of both the employed and the unemployed.（劳动力是被雇用人数和未被雇用人数的总和。）

What exactly is this labour force participation rate?（那么到底什么是劳动力参与率呢？）

The labour force participation rate is essentially （劳动力参与率是指）

the percentage of the working population that in the labour force.（是劳动人口占总劳动力的百分比）

So essentially that I think about it is that, if I have the population, （所以我是这样考虑这个问题的，如果我有人口总数，）

and the number of unemployed + the number of employed, then this percentage will give us the actual participation rate.（还有，被雇用的百分比加上雇用的劳动力的百分比，那我们就可以得到这个实际的劳动力参与比例了。）

Now, the next most important concept as part of this lecture 7 is about the discouraged worker hypothesis.（那么Lecture7的下一个重点，是关于受挫工人假说）

Now, what exactly is this discouraged worker hy-potheses? OK. So we called this discouraged worker hypothesis (DWH). （到底什么是受挫工人假说呢？ 我们称它为DWH。）

The discouraged worker hypothesis (DWH) goes like this, now, whenever the economy is actually booming, yes? For example（受挫工人假说是这样说的。假如现在经济繁荣，）

it’s actually expanding, yes? （它实际上是增长的。）

We know that if the economy is booming, then obviously we expect that the unemployment rate will actually decrease, yes?（我们知道，当经济繁荣时， 我们预计失业率会下降，是吧？）

Now what this mean is that because the firm are being so productive （同时这意味着我们的公司生产力增强）

and obviously we need a lot more workers, so lot more of this workers are being pulled from this unemployment pool. （所以我们显然需要雇佣更多的工人，所以很多工人被从失业的泥潭中被拉回来了。）

However, from the empirical studies, we found that, （但是根据经验，我们发现，）

when there is an initiation of the particular boom, the unemployment rate actually increases. （当经济繁荣刚刚开始的时候，失业率实际上是上升的）

What cause that? Now, here comes the discour-aged worker hypothesis. The idea is that if your are a worker, yes?（这是什么引起的呢？这里就和受挫工人假说有关。假设你是一个工人，）

Obviously if you are not looking for a job, if you are not actively seeking for a job, (显然如果你没有在积极找工作，)

then you are not considered to be part of the labour force. (那么你就不算是劳动力中的一部分。)

Now for example, imagine you are a graduate from a top 10 university.(现在举个例子，想象你从一个世界排名前十的顶尖大学毕业。)

Now after attaining your degree, you looking for jobs. So you submitted about thousands of applications. (你毕业后开始找工作，你提交了几千份简历。)

Unfortunately nobody return to you and obviously you feel sad. (遗憾的是，但没有人回应你，当然你很难过。）

Now after a while you submit you next thousands of application to medium firms, （然后你又在一些中级公司发好1千份简历，）

and again, no body gives you back an answer that means, again, no interview. (还是没有人理你，这说明没有人面试你。)

After 2000 applications, you will feel discouraged, because obviously, nobody wants you. (在你发了两千份简历还没有人理你之后，)

After three years of university degree, you cannot get anywhere. (毕竟，三年的大学学习没有给你带来一份工作。)

If you’re discouraged, (如果你变得很沮丧,)

this means that you will be sitting at your house, (那你就会蹲在家里，）

maybe drinking pepsi and play your play session.（喝着百事，玩着游戏，）

If you’re not looking for job, then you’re no longer part of this unemployment pool.（如果你不去找工作，那么你永远都不会算在失业人群中）

What this means is that if the economy is finally booming again, （这就意味着当经济再次复苏，蓬勃发展的时候）

imagine one day you’re sitting on your couch, what this means is that you’re watching TV（你可以想象那个画面：你在沙发上躺着看电视，）

and the news report goes like this:（看到新闻报道中说道：）

the Australian economy has rebounded and the growth is so large. The firms are hiring more and more workers. （澳洲经济再次复苏和发展，大部分公司和企业都在招更多的员工）

At that time, you feel this burning sensation in your heart （此时你内心突然燃起了斗志，）

because you see this light at the end of the tunnel and you say “Oh GOD! My hope is coming back up!” (因为你看到了一道曙光从隧道口照了进来，你心里说：嗷！我的希望回来啦~~！）

What this means is that if you’re part of this discouraged labour force, （这就意味着当你之前是那些沮丧劳动力中的一员时，）

and again once you start looking for job, （当你又重新打算开始找工作的时候，）

this means that you’ll come back to this unemployment pool. （就是说你又重新回到了事业人群的行列里了。）

Now that explains it in empirical evidence is that （通过经验证据可以解释它为，）

even when the economy is booming, the unemployment actually initially increases (这就是为什么即便在经济复苏的时候，依然会显示失业人群增多)

is because of this discouraged workers hypothesis whereby all these previously discouraged workers now come back and try to look for jobs. (因为用DWH可以解释，之前这些气馁的工人又重新回来找工作了--他们又重新失业了）

Now finally, what is the next important element from lecture 7， （那么下一个重点是什么呢？）

Well, there are three different types of unemployment. （失业是有三种失业类型的。）

The first type is what we call [the frictional unemployment]（第一种我们叫它为摩擦性失业）

Frictional unemployment is pretty much you’re in a process looking for your next job that you’re not being matched up. （它指的是你正在找你的下一份工作，但是可能工作不对口/没有配对的工作）

So again you’re looking for a next job but obviously, frictional unemployment is in the procedure. （所以你开始找下一个工作，但是摩擦性失业显然是一个重要步骤）

Now the second concept is what we call [ the structural unemployment]（第二种失业我们称它为结构性失业）

Now structural unemployment is because the unemployment resulted from skill mismatch, （导致它的主要原因是因为技能不匹配）

Now think about your parents’ generation, a lot of them don’t have training in computer literature.（就好像你父母那个年代，他们大部分都没有受过正式的电脑技能教育）

Now what this means is that when there is an economy booms and all these companies looking for workers, (当经济复苏时， 所有的公司都在招人）

Now obviously if you have no language skills, if you have no computer skills, (当你语言不通，不掌握电脑技能时， 很明显，）

then obviously you belong to this structural unemployment because of the skill mismatch. (你就是属于结构性失业人群里面了，因为你的技能没办法匹配公司的要求）

And finally, the last concept is what we call [the cyclical unemployment] (最后一种失业类型我们称为周期性循环失业）

So what exactly is a cyclical unemployment? (什么是周期性循环失业呢？）

It is the difference between the actual unemployment and the natural rate of unemployment. （实际上就是真正失业率和自然失业率之间的差距）

So from a statistical perspective, it is just your U minus your U*.（从统计学的角度来看，周期性失业率=实际失业率-自然失业率）

So the difference between the actual unemployment, take away the natural rate of unemployment. (就是实际失业率取走自然失业率。）

Now what this means is that cyclical unemployment will rise, （这就意味着周期性循环失业率会上升，）

if there is what we call a recessionary gap, （当出现紧缩性缺口的时候，）

or if there is what we call an expansionary gap （或者出现膨胀性缺口的时候）

Now the best way to characterize that is to use Okun’s equation（最好的去描述该特征的方法就是用Okun’s equation）

Now the final part is what exactly is the okun’s relationship. (我们视频的最后一部分就是解释一下什么是Okun关系 )

The okun’s relationship goes as follow: （如下：）

So the okun’s relationship characterise the difference or the relationship between the output gap vs the unemployment gap. (Okun的这条公式说明了产量缺口与失业缺口之间的关系或者差距）

Now more specifically, if our output is more than the y*（更具体的说，当我们的实际产量大于潜在的产量 y*时，）

This is classified as what we call an expansionary output gap, （这个就是被我们分类为膨胀性缺口）

because the output is obviously more than the potential(因为你实际出口大于潜在出口)

Now what this means is that because of this negative side (因为在这个公式上有一个负号）

this means that u must be smaller than u*（所以实际失业率要低于自然失业率）

now if output is gonna be equal to y*. This means that u will be equal to u*. （相应的，如果实际产量等于潜在产量，那么实际失业率也要等于自然失业率）

And finally, if the actual output is gonna be smaller than y* （因此，如果你实际产量小于潜在产量）

this means that we will have a recessionary output gap （这就意味着我们正经历着紧缩行缺口）

What this mean is that if we have a recessionary output gap, then the unemployment must be greater than the natural rate of employment. (这意味着在失业率方面，实际失业率大于自然失业率）

Now essentially these are the key points which covers in terms of lecture 7（这就是第七章的一些核心内容）

Alright, thank you very much for watching.See you next time .( ・ิω・)ノิิ