NIO Stock SHORT WARNING! CITRON SHORTS NIO! 🍋 - YouTube

felix here with more nio updates guys we are  looking at nio short positions and they are  

massive and we're going to look at how citron  is involved in that and what it really means  

for the stock price does it explain the sort  of southerly horizontal movements of last week  

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uh as always guys not financial advice of course  is just for entertainment only you might have  

seen this report if you have a good memory  in 2018 and it was basically citron research  

putting out a report saying they are long nio and  they had basically learned from their mistakes  

from quite a short tesla for aegis and just not  being able to make any money out of that because  

tesla shareholders are very very loyal and they  are therefore pumping this as a chinese tesla  

and basically shorts are absurd so at the  time okay the short term target was 12  

but the share price was a lot lower at the time  and it's quite interesting really their take on  

it they're basically saying you know the chinese  government made growing the ev market one of the  

country's top priorities so it's nearly impossible  to get a driver's license for a combustion vehicle  

in major cities uh yeah i think drivers have  this what i mean a license plate really a  

person needs to obtain a special license  yes through a lot of resistance that's true  

um and the odds are winning are well below one  percent and then you pay over 14 000 to purchase  

the license in contrast licenses for new evs are  free and open to anyone precisely that is still  

the case in major cities and that's basically  a massive in incentive structure and then they  

say here's this sexy part the number wonks are  missing they're talking about the branding there  

they're called the dealerships which called nio  houses yet dealerships is actually what they  

should could be called and you know there's sort  of club-like spaces and um then you know they show  

us an old nio day 2017 or we just watched nio day  at 2020 which was held in 2021 but you know that's  

slightly beside the story and um so they they  are quite uh yeah really quite bullish on that  

it's quite it's quite amazing basically that um  they then interview people who bought nios and  

he were also saying that they love him and the  cast they bought before you know porsche boxster  

and this one here prior car brand was a lexus  this one here had bought an audi a8 before so  

really very very bullish positive stuff they  also say that nio has a second mover advantage  

they learn from the growing pains of tesla  basically and used to acknowledge their advantage  

they built battery swaps their systems  uh in about three minutes and they have  

18 batteries observations running on highways  uh connect beijing hong kong macau but i don't  

think that parts quite correct but you know yeah  eleven hundred swapping stations by 2020 okay we  

kind of missed them is that one nio missed that  goal there but uh that's not such a huge item  

um and then you're saying tesla has proven that  once you establish a hype and brand it's easy  

to move down market and you're just guided to 7000  deliveries in q4s yes more than numbers where they  

just did that in one month and uh if you put that  in perspective and tesla produced 6940 vehicles  

uh in january 2040 the market value of  tesla at 20 billion and within a month  

test levels value at 30 billion at the this  valuation near stock price would be worth  

24 today so really very bullish stuff obviously  these numbers are a little bit old and they go  

through everybody's working there and and  just sort of come up with uh comparisons  

and and how they're you know okay they're  basically coming up to sort of 27 valuations  

there and and obviously the market has moved far  far beyond that and you see here their their price  

targets um you know price targets were much more  conservative back back then you zoom in on that  

for you guys a bit uh and you can see if before  800 300 000 uh car deliveries they're sort of um  

giving a price target of 24 dollars so you know  we are way way way beyond that they're also  

mentioning the original you know van gaal magnus  stanley they um held 60 of the float at the time  

and they're basically saying do not be  short into a major positive catalyst  

um trade war is a win-win for  nio i actually agree with that  

and then basically be cautious don't go short  on this we are long on it and what happened then  

since well they changed their mind didn't  they they were shorting nio at the end of

2020 um there is an article out here in in 11th  of november that nioshares plunged nearly eight  

percent on friday after being shorted by sichon  at the management share company's shares valued  

more than two percent on monday and there's no  doubt cedric has a strong track record in the  

past and companies have been shorted by them  often experienced big drops in their share  

prices and some have even found serious legal  consequences and what they usually have in  

common is questionable financial practices however  the main argument citroen used to short nio was  

competition from tesla they said that the upcoming  china made tesla model y because it's a threat to  

new year's prospects and and sort of uses a  deutsche bank report then deutsche then said  

uh well actually they didn't read our report  essentially that um deutsche said the main  

pillar of the bearish argument focused on  the upcoming launch of tesla models why  

well we continue to this is a risk we see there's  a temporary headwind to subsequently be more than  

offset by nearest growing brand awareness and  we have of course seen december and january  

numbers generally numbers particularly being  very positive despite uh model y being cheaper  

so why am i telling you all of this you might  be wondering well well well let me show you so  

i've taken a screenshot here of the nio short  interest let me just show that to you guys there  

we go and you can see a short interest volume  ratio is absolutely insane let me show you the

uh you know we were in december at 75 80 percent  and you might wonder well what does that really  

mean well let me show you game stop uh you know  all of a game stop gamestop was sort of up to 70  

65 65 before collapsing and then interestingly  actually rallying again you know the shortest  

haven't lost sights of gamestop there but if you  compare that to this chart this is totally off  

the charts look at you know we are we are um way  way higher with nio with nio being shorter there's  

no one's talking about it you know we have 75 even  more than 80 percent so that means that in a given  

day um the short volume is eighty percent off the  total trading volume which is absolutely insane  

so i wanted to show you that i can't get it  required the same chart because uh i couldn't  

find a charting software that shows us both at the  same time but we can sort of line it up here with  

the trade view chart above that blue little line  there of course is the stock and let me just turn  

off all those all those squibbles there so you can  see basically when there was a high here at 61.84  

the short interest went to i would say 82  81 percent absolutely insane and then as  

the stock came down again it went back down to 50  odd percent which is still insane i mean normally  

10 to 20 is high above 20 is insanely high i mean  absolutely out of this world i and then we see the  

same thing happening again we get a little bit  of a rally up to 61.55 and the short interest  

shoots back up to 77 78 percent off the trading  volume that day absolutely in insanity and then it  

sort of went down a bit and why is that well a  lot of that's going to do with the whole uh you  

know gamestop shorting saga and just just shorts  being a little unpopular temporarily but you can  

see them they went down to about 27 28 or so and  that was actually the last time i looked and i  

was like okay we're coming a little bit still  quite high but i thought we're coming back  

down to planet earth and it's just some  people think the whole ev sector is overvalued  

but we are going back up guys we are now back  over 40 percent again and that is basically  

where gme is at the moment gme is at about 45 or  so so nio is being shorted basically like a game  

stop and that might well explain why the stock  struggles in in recent weeks i mean it has still  

you know made some positive moves but you know it  it hasn't continued quite on the same trajectory  

it is still within that path but it has  obviously moved you know sort of horizontally  

here quite a bit if you look at um you know  sort of i would say since uh since uh yeah  

late november we've had quite a lot of headwind  uh when we know the the stock you one might  

expect it to continue further upwards so  what does that really mean uh the citron  

guys back at it well quite possibly they're  not going to announce it anymore we know that  

and really for to get this kind of let me just  make this bigger guys here to get this kind of  

short volume you need institutions you need  hedge funds to shorten because your average  

retail investor not all of them do shorts because  it is a bit of a risky one you know the potential  

for losses is enormous obviously a lot of people  are using calls that's becoming a lot more popular  

especially with platforms like ib etc making  that quite easy and then you can lend your  

shares on all of them right so actually short  short term uh you know you can basically we can  

borrow shares much much more easily nowadays  than in the past because most a lot of retail  

investors are lending them it just i think it's  risky because if those brokers go out of business  

and you can see how that can happen given the news  in the last week or two with robin hood right you  

could see how a brokerage like that could simply  go out of business well if you've lent your shares  

you've probably lost them that's just something  to bear in mind when you click that little option  

and you turn that on and you think well i'm  making some extra percentage well normally  

when a brokerage goes out of business you own the  share it doesn't really matter you simply have to  

transfer to another brokerage but you still own  that financial product you bought but once you've  

lent it out i think you no longer do and therefore  if the brokerage goes out of business you are in  

trouble it's the same with cash if you have cash  in a bank account bankers out of business uh you  

are in trouble you are not going to get your  money back except if the government sort of  

guarantees bits of it but they will guarantee  all of it whereas if you have your money in say  

shares or bonds with a bank the bankers are out  of business you still owe those shares and uh and  

bonds because the bank doesn't there in your name  they're just a sort of fiduciary holder there so  

back to this point though this is in my view  100 institutions you don't get i mean just  

draw a line through this and you sort of see  where we are we sort of went from 40 to 75 or  

so average and now here look we are going back up  we are going back up i wouldn't be surprised if  

this goes back up to 50 60 percent and more uh  in terms of a short volume in interest here so  

it's it's kind of an interesting story i think  and it's something that isn't covered very much  

that nio is being shorted to such a  stupendous degree so people are just  

hoping to make a quick buck there by tanking a  business that they apparently deem as overvalued  

well does it mean it is overvalued i mean you can  a lot of people historically you were looking at  

short volume ratios and you were thinking well  thinking well if they are high it just means that  

a lot of investors think the stock is overvalued  but what we have of course seen with the whole  

gamestop server is that it is just actually not  a sort of sensible valuation approach but just  

let's hammer the stock with shorts tell the world  and i mean we can see it publicly anyway and  

therefore the stock will drop and we will make  money is that more likely what's happening here  

to me that's what it looks like just because these  percentages are so insanely high i mean this is  

really not um not sort of normal behavior i i  think you are you will struggle to find stocks  

with such a continuous trajectory of shorting  it and and why of course well because let me  

just move this down here the stock has managed to  move up all the way so people are basically just  

they're not making money on these these  shorts because they're not being successful  

at least not in the medium long term and therefore  they are just doubling down doubling down doubling  

down that's kind of my take on this and they  basically think well okay the stock price keeps  

keeps rallying up here but if we keep punishing  this as we are with our shorts then eventually  

there will be so many shorts that the stock will  actually decline substantially and this bit here  

at the end i think is an anomaly as a lot of funds  would have just pulled their money out of shorts  

and the whole gamestop thing was happening  because they were like whoa whoa people are  

losing you know five billion dollars here and  there and we don't want to be one of those so  

let's just pull them and wait for this to be  over and we're getting back in and i think that's  

what's happening down here where i've drawn that  second red line back in the shorts are coming back  

short interest is shooting back up uh let's keep  an eye on this number i i certainly will i expect  

this is going to go back up about 50 60 percent  because to me this says people haven't really  

made money because yes okay we had a little bit  dips in in stocks up here but with that kind of  

percentage uh you would um i i think people are  sort of chickened out i think i think that's what  

that's why this is what's happening here and  that's why we are seeing less less short volume  

but now it's going back up and why is that  well they want to make their money back right  

people are emotional traders once they lose  money on a stock they kind of want to get it back  

and you can see the same thing actually on gme  you know they are coming back here uh it isn't all  

over they are shorting that again 45 percent or  so that's still pretty tremendously high it isn't  

quite the insanity that nio's facing but it is  very very high guys so i just wanted to share that  

with you because i think it's it's an interesting  one and um it's something to watch on something  

that really isn't talked about a great deal guys  so if you enjoy our coverage and commentary on on  

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