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Will Tesla Model 3 Production Reach Goal? Let's Do the Math [live] - YouTube
Channel: Ben Sullins
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hello and welcome everyone to Tesla
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namah Clive I'm your host Ben sullens
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and this is the show where we break down
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the biggest news related to Tesla from
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the previous week we do it live because
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well things change
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very quickly when the world of Tesla as
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you probably know for those of you
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joining me on YouTube thanks for
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stopping in I am gonna have a Q&A that
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is private just for folks on crowdcast
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which happens on a separate platform
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it's free to join but in order to get
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the invite you need to be in the
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community and in order to do that you
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need to get on our list at Tesla Mexico
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slash join so that's first up if you
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want to be a part of the Q&A that's how
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you get in there second up is the
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referral program is ending soon and so
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if you are looking to buy an S or an X
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make sure to get a referral code and get
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the free supercharging we assume many of
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us that it will continue but you know
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you never know with these things it may
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change it may be limited they may get
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rid of it entirely I doubt that but in
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any event if you're looking for one you
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can check out mine at the link below
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so today's show is all about the Model 3
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and the progress so without further ado
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let me jump right into the data here so
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first and foremost yesterday the model 3
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tracker this is from Bloomberg they've
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been doing this for a little while I'm
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Tom Randall and Dean Dean Halford have
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these methods of tracking this
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information they want to actually see
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look at the VINs and look at all these
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different things and kind of how they're
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progressing to see what the ramp is
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looking like for the Model 3 and I like
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looking at data and numbers like this -
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as you probably know and so I've taken
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these numbers and plug them into my
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forecast model to try to figure out
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exactly if they will hit that 2500 per
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week goal by the end of q1 which by the
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way is in like five days so needless to
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say one of the biggest things was that
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they just jumped you can see that Tom
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Randle had an update here he said this
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is the last week of production before
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Tesla reports its quarterly progress our
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weekly estimates don't respond quickly
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in
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to capture last-minute burst in
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production so literally this number last
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night yesterday was 800 so they went
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from 800 to 975 in a day and that's
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because of how their model works I think
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it's a good model they have a couple
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different variations here but I do not
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believe that they are going to hit the
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goal of 2500 per week by the end of q1
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literally in five days but I don't think
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that matters either so what I did is I
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actually took these numbers and I
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plugged him into my model here let's
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take a look at that for a second third
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first this is the the function the log
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function if you're unfamiliar maybe in
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stats class in college or something you
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guys remember how it all worked but the
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way that this actually comes together is
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you have basically the midpoint and the
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maximum and you're trying to guess those
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two different points now there's another
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way of doing it but in any event you
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have this kind of sigmoid or s-curve and
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this is what Ilan always talks about
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with with the the delivery ramp of the
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model 3 and how it all works so what I
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did is I basically modeled that into
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excel and I couldn't find the link of
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the guy who originally built this but if
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and when I do I'll post it but he
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basically did a version of that in Excel
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which instead of having a single
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midpoint we have two points kind of the
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starting and end points or I'm sorry the
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beginning and then the midpoint and then
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the maximum so you can see what I've
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done here is I've plugged in the date
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today the number 975 which is what
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they're currently at based on that
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Bloomberg tracker now the 2500 I'm
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putting out to 6:30 instead of this you
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know at the end of q1 and then I'm
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giving them a maximum of 10,000 so a lot
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of these things are speculative and
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that's why I like to look at these a few
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different ways and actually come up with
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different models so from there what I
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did
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oops is I plugged it in to two different
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angles here one is a 5k maximum weekly
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production and a 10k maximum weekly
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production because we still don't
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actually know now you honest said that
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you know they can reach 10,000 per week
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in the model 3 line at Fremont
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but until that's
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prove and I think it's it's makes sense
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to have a really healthy dose of
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skepticism because all the other numbers
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and everything's that they've came up
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with have not actually panned out so I
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modeled both of them the dark kind of
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red or pink is is the five thousand one
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you can see that line kind of
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referencing there and then the other one
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is the ten thousand one so all of these
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are using that midpoint of June
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thirtieth at 2,500 and kind of where
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would they go from there so this is what
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that ramp looks like and if you
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extrapolate that out you can see what
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the totals would be by year so for 2018
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we're looking at eighty-five thousand if
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you're on the 5k maximum if you're on
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the other model the 10k model then we're
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looking at a hundred and seventy
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thousand so that's a big number for
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Tesla and then going into the future
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you're looking at you know two hundred
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and fifty thousand two hundred and sixty
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thousand and then on the 10k model
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although all the way up you know north
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of five hundred thousand so there's
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still a lot of cars to be made very
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likely by Tesla this year for the model
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three alone I mean we're talking you
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know double all the you know this is
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equivalent to all of the production of s
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and X from last year in fact more so so
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they're gonna double production this
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year overall is what it looks like on
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their current trajectory so I think this
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is good news I think that you know even
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though there may be there obviously
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delayed lots of people are getting their
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cars the more you look online the more
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you see you know truckloads of them
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going by and people posting videos from
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the Fremont factory there's all kinds of
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things there all kinds of good signs
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that this is really the ramp is is going
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well or at least it's improving and so
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I'm gonna continue to monitor this as
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you guys know um one other tidbit about
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this that there was um the the current
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consensus of the total vehicles in 2018
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from a different bloomberg source this
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is the the gadfly this is a chart kind
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of thing where you just get charts every
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day I love this this email list I watch
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it all the time and so they're currently
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at 143 thousand for their guests for
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2018 that fits right kind of neatly
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between my my low and high estimates so
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we'll see I'm curious what you guys
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think leave me a comment down below
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and if you have any other insights in
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here that you want to share please hit
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me up on Twitter or just in the comments
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down below and and we'll take it from
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there
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so that's kind of the first bit of news
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the next thing I want to talk about is a
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bit sad this is the uber self-driving
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car that killed a pedestrian in in Tempe
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where not far from where I'm from I used
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to live actually about a half mile from
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this from this location and this is
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pretty sad so the gist of it is there
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was a one of the self-driving humors
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these are the test vehicles that they
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have out there would there is a person
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behind the wheel
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there was a lady crossing the street on
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a bike and she was struck by the car and
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then later died at the hospital those
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are kind of the basic facts of it I'm
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upset about this this really kind of hit
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me hard because as someone that I guess
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I guess this is like an industry I work
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in now you know digging into these these
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details and sharing that information
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it's sad because I think it could have
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been prevented
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mostly because I think going for level
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five autonomy right now is a is is early
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it's way early and in my book I
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understand that we we want to get there
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and this is how progress is made but I
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don't think that that we need to be
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pushing so hard to get there you know
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just to make more money I just think
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it's kind of lame and so I'll show you
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the exterior video here so if you know
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your discretion advised if you're
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sensitive to that this is kind of
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graphic but you know you don't see the
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person actually die or anything so don't
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worry about that and I'm gonna show you
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this one solely just to demonstrate like
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how dark it was and how basically like
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you couldn't see anything even even a
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human probably would have would have
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been this would have been the same
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result I mean it's completely pitch
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black bad news it just didn't work and
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and that really sucks now two things
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that that really can that made this
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worse I think one was that they posted
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not only this video but the video of the
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dry
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who appeared to be on his phone at the
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time and they released his name so the
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way the internet works I really this
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pisses me off because this guy yes he
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you know this was he's at fault here it
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to some extent I'm sure people will be
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digging into that you know in details
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and IV investigations and all those kind
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of things but this guy doesn't need to
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be publicly shamed like this like he
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killed someone you know even he's partly
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responsible for that in some way or
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another and that is gonna be something
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that he's gonna live with for the rest
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of his life and so he has enough pain
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and suffering to deal with already that
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he doesn't need to be internet shamed
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out of it and so the fact that they
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released that video and his name to me
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is is kind of below the belt it was
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unnecessary I think I think even this
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exterior video isn't necessary at all
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just the details of the story things
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like this graphic all that is really
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really enough to make this something
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newsworthy so you know I'm like I love
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the New York Times but but but that
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really got to me so I'm curious what you
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guys think about that is it is it right
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is it wrong to release the video of
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these videos and the guys name is it too
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early to be really trying to test these
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things especially at night should there
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be tighter controls or you know is the
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guide totally to blame here I'm curious
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what you guys think
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because yeah this is this will be an
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ongoing thing that we are that we
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unfortunately have to get more
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comfortable with so curious what you
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guys think let me know in the comments
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down below all right next up we have
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something again that's a little bit this
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is a little bit close to my heart to my
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business I suppose
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and that was Elon decided to delete his
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own SpaceX and Tesla Facebook pages and
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this this article on TechCrunch here is
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the one that you know they kind of put
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it as a political thing because there's
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this to me it's it's ironic and funny
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but people want to delete facebook
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assuming that that somehow gives them
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for their privacy back but he was being
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called out on Twitter by some people if
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you're the man
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you'll do it and so he wouldn't did it
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which is kind of mine mind-boggling to
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me you know people here are commenting
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about the amount of of followers they
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had and all that I mean and you know you
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want had some additional comments on
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this he said it's not a political
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statement and I didn't do this because
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someone dared me to do it just don't
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like Facebook gives me the willies
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sorry so I guess that's an apology or
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maybe that's not an apology depends how
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you want to take that really the reason
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this bothered me not that I give a crap
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whether Tesla and SpaceX have Facebook
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pages but because this affects people at
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his company and this was seemingly done
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out of kind of a rash like like reaction
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to something to people calling him out
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on Twitter so I'm just I guess in
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general not a fan of billionaires acting
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erratically when they're called out on
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Twitter you know there are many of those
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out there that kind of do that so to me
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this was this was really strange and
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upsetting because it just seemed
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unnecessary and likely to hurt people at
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his own company for what reason I have
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no clue I mean maybe to create a news
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story and in distract from something
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else yeah it's it's it's really odd to
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me and then he followed up the you know
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another response er that they've never
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advertised with Facebook they don't
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really advertise at all remember the the
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love day campaign was because they've
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never come up with an ad no none of my
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companies buy advertising or pay famous
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people to fake endorsed by the way I
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don't count as any of those people and
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no they've never paid me anything and I
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do have no sponsorship from tousle
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directly of course as you see they'll
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never do that as I don't think they
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should you know and then the product
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lives or dies with its own merits I
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think that's great I think that like
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this statement is fine deleting those
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pages because what happened immediately
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is the people that are responsible for
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that at the company recreated them and
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then literally dozens of other people
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were creating fake versions of this to
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then fool other people and create a
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bigger problem so in any event the
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delete Facebook thing these actions
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caused more can
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fusion and probably more people to share
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information with some some bad actors
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that they maybe didn't didn't intend to
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so yeah this I think is is a short for
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the week this was dumb I I don't see the
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point in it and it was just upsetting so
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yeah anyways hopefully the people at the
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company it wasn't as bad as maybe it
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seems from the outside but to me this
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was pretty shocking and really just
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erratic weird behavior that I thought I
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hate to see from from Elon because I
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think the mission of Tesla is so
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important that you know this stuff kind
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of is a distraction and annoying to me
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anyways so curious what you guys think
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leave me a comment down below I don't
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know
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did you delete Facebook do you think
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that gives you privacy if so why do you
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care that he did this or is this just
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another dumb little side note so let me
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know I'm curious what you guys think
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about that all right next up model three
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reservations are being are now available
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in Canada my friend Trevor page I've got
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a little video clip of him going through
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the configurator he explains it let me
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pull up my notes just to walk give you
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guys the the short version of it it's
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for current owners only so current Tesla
[876]
owners only it's only first production
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it's forty five thousand six hundred
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Canadian dollars and then six sixty
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three thousand one hundred Canadian
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dollars total which include the the the
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thousand dollar credit the question I
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have about this is why would they do it
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I think they would do it to try to
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reduce the amount of cars they're
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delivering this quarter so that way they
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can hope I mean if they can push the tax
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credit hitting that two hundred thousand
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car delivered in North America or I'm
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sorry in the US to q3 that would be
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tremendous for all the folks waiting on
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that base model three and everything
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else I think that would be phenomenal
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but I don't really know if this is gonna
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do it or if this is just a part of their
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growth strategy we really won't have
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more of a clue until a little bit later
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on and in my favorite place to check out
[930]
info about that is on inside Eevee's
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calm the
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a sponsor not affiliated in any way I
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know those guys and they we shared data
[938]
from time to time but that's usually
[940]
where I look to when I'm when I'm
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curious about this kind of things to
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make sure to go check out check out
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their site there I mean also I'll put a
[947]
link to this video if you want to see
[948]
Trevor walk through the whole thing I
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think is pretty you know pretty cool if
[951]
you've never seen it also if you're in
[954]
Canada you know this is all the Canadian
[956]
dollars and all those kind of things you
[957]
can see kind of exactly how that works
[959]
and of course subscribe to Trevor's
[962]
channel because it's fantastic so there
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you go
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all right so that is all the news for
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today everyone thank you for joining me
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I'm gonna switch over to crowdcast now
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and do the Q&A and if you would like to
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join that again remember to go to Tesla
[978]
nama Coast life's joy and then next week
[980]
you'll get an invite we do limit it so
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it just doesn't get too out of hand
[984]
it's already out of hand with how many
[985]
questions people ask and stay tuned for
[988]
more of the highlights from today's
[990]
livestream as well as a Q&A later this
[993]
week as well as I have some really
[995]
special videos April I've been kind of
[997]
laying low in March taking it a little
[999]
bit easy April's gonna be a big month
[1001]
I'm planning a lot of big videos so stay
[1003]
tuned make sure in fact make sure to
[1005]
click that bell so you don't miss any
[1008]
videos that may or may not be coming out
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this weekend all right guys well thanks
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for watching and I'm gonna switch
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