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Futures Trading: Where are the BEST reflation trades happening now? | Simpler Trading - YouTube
Channel: Simpler Trading
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Hey traders Raghee here and in this update we're聽
going to do a deep dive into the reflation聽聽
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trade now if that sounds like it's something聽
familiar well it should be because we've been聽聽
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talking about reflation here at Simpler for a聽
while and you know I would encourage you guys聽聽
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just to go into YouTube search Simpler Trading聽
reflation and you're going to see a bunch of聽聽
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videos from me a great video from John and聽
you know these are conversations that聽聽
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we've been having consistently for some聽
time so first of all what is reflation聽聽
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well it's just inflation coming on back where聽
does reflation impact us as futures traders聽聽
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stock traders ETF traders and聽
then option traders of those three聽聽
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of those three groups it impacts us because now we聽
can look at certain types of markets with a much聽聽
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higher expectation of moving higher when they are聽
going to be benefiting from what a weaker dollar聽聽
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and quite frankly just higher prices and聽
it doesn't even need to be higher demand okay聽聽
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so so it's not necessarily that for example the聽
chart of corn that you have up here in front聽聽
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of you is necessarily higher in demand although聽
there is a lot of chatter about China not meeting聽聽
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their corn demands and soybean demand so there聽
are there are grain demands but then you add聽聽
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that reflation trade to this demand conversation聽
and that really sets us up for terrific movement聽聽
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higher well in both the Futures Room and in the聽
Sector Secrets Mastery we have been long said see聽聽
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futures now you can play this two ways you can聽
play this with ZC futures traders great leverage聽聽
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but some traders don't want to have to worry about聽
trading futures and first notice date and rollover聽聽
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and such so they'd rather play corn c-o-r-n聽
which is the ETF and now you can play a pretty聽聽
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decent liquid options chain and that's how we've聽
been trading this in the sector secrets room and聽聽
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we've been long since gosh how long have we been聽
since the 18th the 18th of March so not not of聽聽
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not of April 18th of March so we've been long聽
this this contract for a month and and why well聽聽
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a lot of you that know my work you might say聽
wrong don't even say it double green there I聽聽
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said it double green the structure of the 8 13 21聽
and then 34 EMAs have been consistently bullish聽聽
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and even when we take a breather because the聽
previous trend was long we stick with the trend聽聽
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all right and that's your JT multi-trend sitting聽
at the bottom of my chart okay what else do we聽聽
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like well so we have Z and corn we also have and聽
you might remember just a couple days ago we did聽聽
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a free video on beans I said hey beans are getting聽
ready to move higher they're sitting in the wave聽聽
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gang you know what this move of beans reminds聽
me of and some of you might have just taken聽聽
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this move take the symbol away for a minute聽
this reminds me so much of what just happened聽聽
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in Google you might know this pattern John聽
slayed this pattern this is the same type聽聽
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of pattern I took advantage of to play beans聽
learn the patterns and then you won't even care聽聽
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what's in the upper left hand corner of the screen聽
the symbol so what do we have here well much like聽聽
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in the case of Google we have an uptrend here聽
it started to take a little bit of a breather聽聽
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but what did it do it maintained support around聽
the wave and before the sideways market before聽聽
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this compression or consolidation we had聽
bullishness and bullishness we when we have聽聽
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a market that is compressing always gang expect聽
the continuation always expect the market is聽聽
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likely going to move higher now i'm not saying聽
it always will what I'm telling you is to always聽聽
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have that bullish attitude do not assume聽
do not assume a reversal most compression聽聽
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will have a more in will be influenced more okay聽
more mostly compression will be influenced more聽聽
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by the trend that preceded it this is Charles聽
Dow 101 gang stick with the trend and pauses聽聽
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in the trend are not reversals okay so ZC and then聽
then there is a alternative in the SOYB okay so聽聽
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I promise you a deep dive into inflation let's聽
keep going all right what else can we look at聽聽
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well for right now gang for right now go ahead聽
and just kind of put crude oil and RBOB gas聽聽
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or USO and the UGA ETF on the back burner I think聽
we will see rotation back into these markets聽聽
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but for now we are definitely seeing that the oil聽
sector and this particular pocket of energy which聽聽
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is typically going to benefit from inflation聽
taking a breather don't dismiss it keep an eye聽聽
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on it it will i believe it's going to continue聽
again especially in the UGA and the RBOB again聽聽
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look at the trend that proceeded and look at this聽
compression look at all those blue grab candles聽聽
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look at the yellow sideways neutral this is likely聽
going to continue higher I love that RBOB I love聽聽
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that UGA perfect reflection markets just need聽
that push again we're just not there right now all聽聽
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right what else well there are certain countries聽
that are going to disproportionately benefit聽聽
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from reflation and they are commodity economies聽
which have what's known as a calm dollar a聽聽
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commodity dollar that's going to be currencies聽
like the canadian dollar now some of you might聽聽
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say you know Ragh I don't know that I want to play聽
futures or you know I don't play forex that's okay聽聽
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you can play the FXC but one of the things that聽
we've chosen to do in the Sector Secrets room聽聽
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is go with Canada so we just got long Canada聽
instead look at the structure of Canada聽聽
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as opposed to the Canadian dollar another market聽
that we're watching really closely both in the聽聽
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Futures Room is is the Australian dollar the聽
6a australian dollar it's a calm doll and it's聽聽
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more tethered to miners. In the premium video聽
we'll do a little bit more of a deep dive into聽聽
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Australia miners and gold Australia is the聽
third largest digger of of gold all right so聽聽
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we're going to keep an eye on this but this is聽
not quite quite as ripe as that EWC and EWA but聽聽
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EWA is looking pretty darn good so聽
if you're thinking you know i really聽聽
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like this narrative around reflation i'm聽
just not seeing it in the in the currency聽聽
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take a look at EWA so there you have a mixture聽
of the futures contracts and a number of ETFs gang聽聽
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I don't care if you're primarily an option trader聽
futures trader or forex trader find the connective聽聽
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thread your connective thread here is macro and聽
a macroeconomic environment of reflation is聽聽
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going to benefit these markets that we've talked聽
about hope that helps hope that adds something聽聽
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helpful to your watch list things to keep an eye聽
on a little bit out of the box but gang tell you聽聽
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what when you take a look at the commodities聽
cycle which I believe is just getting started聽聽
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I do think I don't know i'm not going to call聽
it a super cycle let's embrace hyperbole here聽聽
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but please put these symbols whether the聽
futures variety or the ETF alternative聽聽
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on your watch list okay they've been on ours for聽
a while they continue to be the gift that keeps on聽聽
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giving and I definitely want you guys to benefit聽
from that all right I'll see you all in the next聽聽
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update without Simpler Trading I could not have聽
financial independence this is one of the best聽聽
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investments I ever made in my life it's helping聽
me find consistency one of the things that won me
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