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Weekly Forex Forecast for September 23 – 27, 2019 (EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, EURGBP, EURJPY) - YouTube
Channel: Justin Bennett
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hi everyone welcome to another weekly
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Forex forecast my name is Justin Bennett
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with daily price action and in today's
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video we're gonna talk about the euro
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versus the USD we're gonna talk about
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the pound versus the USD as well as the
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dollar versus the yen and we're also
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going to discuss the euro versus the
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pound as well as the euro versus the yen
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you're gonna want to stay tuned because
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I do think the dollar yen could be
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setting up for a reversal this week so
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let's get to it before we begin be sure
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to hit that subscribe button below and
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turn on the notifications so you get
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notified every time I post a video just
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like this one today so first up we have
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the Euro against the US dollar and just
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like we've been looking at for the last
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few weeks we still have this descending
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channel that's intact and notice how the
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pair is also still trending between that
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109 30 so 109 30 support down here as
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well as that 110 70 resistance now this
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area through here is also now a
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confluence of resistance based on this
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horizontal level as well as this smaller
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descending channel I also think we have
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some minor support down here just below
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that 110 level so you can see where
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Friday's low actually retested this
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level and it's also this high from that
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candle there so we have several lows
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through here so that 110 area could act
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as support for the current week and 110
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70 continues to be resistance so I think
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until the Euro breaks out of this
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sideways range right here I think that
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this is a tough one to trade while you
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could buy from support and sell from
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resistance this isn't the type of trade
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that I like to take if you're a swing
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trader or even a breakout trader you're
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gonna want to wait for a break either
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below 109 90 or above 110 70 if we do
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get a close above this 110 70 just like
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I mentioned last week I do think that we
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could see the Euro head up here to 112
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notice we have several lows back through
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this area as well as
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heis up around that 1:12 mark so I think
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a close above this one 1070 confluence
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of resistance could give us 1:12 whereas
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a close below that 109 90 area could
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reexpose 109 30 so these two lows
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through this area and last but not least
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I want to draw your attention back to
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the larger channel that we talked about
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last week so this is one that I do think
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the Euro still has more room to move
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higher than lower and that doesn't mean
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that it will move higher but I do think
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that just based on this price action
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that we've seen now for some time if we
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just draw this out there all these
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swings in the market I do think that
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there is a greater chance for a move
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higher just based on this larger
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descending channel that there is a
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greater potential for a move back up
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into this channel resistance then a move
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much lower at least below 109 30
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so while we could get it moved back down
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here to 109 30 I do think that the
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downside potential is capped in the
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sense that even if this 109 90 level
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breaks and we see 109 30 we may only get
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a move down here to this descending
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channel support so I do think this thing
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has more potential to the upside if we
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get a break of 110 70 then a break lower
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for the coming week again that doesn't
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mean it will happen however it is
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something to keep an eye on so what do
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you guys think will the Euro move higher
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from here or lower go ahead and leave
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your comment below I'd love to hear what
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you think next up we have the British
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Pound versus the US dollar and just like
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we talked about last week the pair is
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still caught between these two levels so
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we've got 123 80s support notice how
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it's this low as well as these highs
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through here now I did mention on this
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day on the blog I said that if we get
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the daily close above 123 80 that buyers
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will want to come in and support the
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pair and notice this low right through
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here so that's exactly what I was
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referring to and our
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target here I've been talking about 125
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70 for several weeks if you go back and
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watch last week's video I mentioned 125
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70 and sure enough that level was hit on
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Friday so now that the pound has had
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this breakout and it's also run for a
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few hundred pips where do we go from
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here so remember we had this breakout
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back here on this channel and right now
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the pair has put in a decent rally
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through 123 80 retested 125 70 and I do
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think just based on this price action
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through this area this to me looks like
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an upward sloping flag which does
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indicate that we could get a pullback in
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to 120 380 this week now as long as that
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area holds on a daily closing basis so
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in other words as long as the pair stays
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above it into the 5 p.m. Eastern close
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that I do think 125 70 remains exposed
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if the pair can break that then we could
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see a move up here into 120 770 so
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notice we have several highs as well as
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this swing low back here now that's only
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if this 120 380 level holds as support
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if we see the pound move lower this week
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and break 120 380 so if we get a close
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below this level so anywhere through
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here I do think that would be a sign of
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weakness for the pair and I also think
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it would react in this region that I
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talked about in the video two weeks ago
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so really I think that would be a sign
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of weakness and we could see a pullback
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into this region here however I do think
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that if we break below 120 380 we could
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be looking at a larger retracement
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perhaps back through these highs and
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these lows so that's kind of what I'm
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looking at right now as long as 120 380
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stays intact as support I think that the
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pound versus the US dollar stays
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constructive from a bullish standpoint
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and if this holds we're looking at
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another retest of 125 70 and perhaps
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a retest of 120 770 if this level breaks
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on a daily closing basis alternatively a
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close below 120 380 would send the pair
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lower I've mentioned the dollar yen a
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few times in recent weeks the first time
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was when the pair was still trending
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below 106 80 so I talked about it right
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in this region and I noted how we were
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getting those higher lows into 106 80
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and that usually is indicative of a
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break higher sure enough we had a close
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above 106 80 here and a retest as
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support on this candle so once we had
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that our target was this 108 level and
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you can see that in recent videos our
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target was this 108 region which is this
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descending channel top now from here we
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were looking for the pair to hold above
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this level so I wrote about this on
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Friday
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and one thing I told members is that I
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did not like how the pair retested the
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level so quickly on Thursday however I
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had to stay at least relatively bullish
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as long as the pair was above this level
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through this region however I wasn't
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buying it because a it was Friday and I
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didn't want to buy before the weekend
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and all I also wanted to see buyers come
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in step in and prop this thing up and
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maybe form a small bullish pin bar but
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instead we got this closed below this
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channel top which is indicative of a
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false break so right now based on
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Friday's clothes I have to assume that
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this price action through here is a
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false break and I also think that 107 70
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is once again resistance for the week
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ahead
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as for key support I think we're still
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looking at that 106 80 level which again
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was the breakout area that I mentioned
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earlier
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so 107 70 as long as that holds on a
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daily closing basis I think the dollar
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yen is in trouble here and could see 106
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80 in the coming week one last thing to
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point out here is that if we move out to
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the weekly chart you'll notice that we
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actually got this bearish pinbar on
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Friday as I've said many times a pin bar
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nothing more than a false break on a
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lower timeframe so in other words on the
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weekly chart we have this bearish pinbar
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however on the daily chart that I just
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showed you notice how that was a false
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break so as of right now I do think the
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dollar again could head lower this week
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toward that 106 80 level as long as it
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stays below 107 70 on a daily closing
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basis now we could also see a pop up
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into this area around the 50 percent
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retracement of this bearish pinbar but I
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think as long as pressure stays on the
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dollar yen 106 80 is exposed with a
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break they're taking us all the way back
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here to the 105 region so what do you
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all think about this price action on the
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dollar yen we saw last week do you think
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that the pair is going to head back
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higher or do you think this was actually
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a false break above the channel top and
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we're gonna head lower toward 106 280 or
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perhaps even 105 go ahead and leave your
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comment below it'd be great to hear from
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you and I make sure to respond to every
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single comment next up we have the euro
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versus the British Pound and I talked
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about this one on the blog several weeks
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ago when the pair was trading up here
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and I noted that it looked like a
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potential top and I'll show you why in a
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moment however I also wanted to point
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out that in that post I wrote about this
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90 180 level so notice how we had a high
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as well as some lows and I said that
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this daily closed below 90 180 meant
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that this level would now act as
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resistance and sure enough it did so we
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were able to get short up in this area
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and my target for that move was actually
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89 20 so at the time this was 89 15 and
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that was because of this close back here
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as well as some lows and highs in the
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region so sure enough we got that retest
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of 89 15 back here and since then the
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pair has just sort of slid sideways
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right along this descending channel
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bottom okay so for that reason I do
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think that sellers have to be careful
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here because anytime you start to see a
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market slide lower like this
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okay and especially when it's resting
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right at the bottom of a channel you
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have to be really careful trying to
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short this because as of right now the
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downside is limited whereas the upside
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potential if we get a retest a move
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anywhere up into this channel resistance
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the upside is much greater than any
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downside right now so I do think that if
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we see the Euro against the pound closed
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back above that 88 40 level so notice
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back here we had highs and a low so I
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think 88 40 is the level to watch if we
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see a daily close above this area this
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week then I think in a retest of 89 20
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that confluence of resistance is the
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likely scenario now I will be looking
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for bearish price action up here if we
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get a move up to 89 20 this week or next
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however be aware too that if we see a
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close above this area right here up
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above this confluence of resistance then
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I do think a retest another run at 90 15
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could be in the cards but as of right
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now I still like the idea of shorting
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the euro versus the pound however I want
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to do that at higher level so if I can
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get short up here in this 89 20 area I
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like that idea for a move back to 83 40
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and if we break that we could see a move
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down here into this 8760 level in fact I
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do think that if we get a retest up here
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and we get another like lower I think
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that a retest of 86 80 should not be
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ruled out so that's sort of my base case
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at the moment and last but not least I
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told you I would show you what tipped me
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off to this top that I mentioned through
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here and for that I have to head out to
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the weekly timeframe and you'll notice
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that we had a bearish engulfing week
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that I wrote about on the blog so this
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week right here was a bearish engulfing
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week and what's notable about this is
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that the Euro had actually put in 14
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consecutive weeks of gains
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notice all of these positive candles
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that formed over the course of 14
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straight weeks so there was a lot of
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buyers trapped in this uptrend so as
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soon as we got this reversal notice how
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this thing unwound just as fast as it
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went up and furthermore we also had a
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level of resistance up in this region so
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notice that we had this huge upper wick
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through here as well as this high and
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then that top formed right at the same
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level so that tipped me off to the fact
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that this was a top and as of right now
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again I think as long as this descending
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channel stays intact I do favor selling
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the pair but again I want to sell at
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higher levels so I can get a favorable
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risk to reward ratio I talked about the
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euro yen in last week's video and
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nothing really changed here last week
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because although in last week's video I
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said that a break higher was possible I
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also noted that we weren't seeing that
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type of compressed price action within
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this channel and sure enough that 119
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7080 area held as resistance so I also
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talked about this during the week I
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released a video and I did say that the
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euro yen looked as though it may want to
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break this level however my trigger for
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a move higher up into 121 was a daily
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close above this channel top and notice
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if i zoom in you'll note that the pair
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never did close above it so we got this
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spike higher as well as some upper wicks
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through this region but we never
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actually got a close above this
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resistance level and I also said last
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week that as long as this resistance
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level holds that sellers are in control
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and I don't want to buy this and sure
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enough on Friday we saw a sell-off that
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followed the dollar yen now ask for
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support for the week ahead
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I do think that 118 30
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could offer some support so notice that
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we have several highs through this
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region as well as a high here and some
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lows right through here
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so one 1830 is when I'm watching as well
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as one 1780 so notice that this is the
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location of several highs or I'm sorry
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several lows and several highs through
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here so one of the thing about seven one
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1780 is that it is they the 50%
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retracement of this short term range so
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notice how that 50% comes in just above
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one 1780 so here's the 50% here's one
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1780 so if we do see a move below one
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1830 I think that one 1780s one to keep
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an eye on that said I'm not looking to
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buy the euro yen right now I think that
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as long as this trend is intact in other
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words as long as this channel stays
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intact I think that the euro yen could
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move lower and I'm not interested in
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buying this instead I would rather look
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to short it perhaps up here on these
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lows in or if we get a close below this
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region then we could see a run at that
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116 handle all the way down here so I
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would rather look for shorts as long as
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this trend is intact on the flip side
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just like I mentioned last week if we do
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see a close above that channel top that
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would be a sign of strength and it would
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also expose that 121 region and perhaps
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even 123 40 but for now as long as this
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level is intact as resistance I do think
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that we could see a lower euro versus
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the yen that wraps up another weekly
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forex forecast before I sign off be sure
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to hit that subscribe button and give
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this video a like if you enjoyed the
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content last but not least leave your
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comment below and let me know what you
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think
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