馃攳
Stocks have a long way until they hit 'the bottom,' says Canaccord's Tony Dwyer - YouTube
Channel: CNBC Television
[0]
even with today's rally our next guest
[1]
suggests sitting on the sidelines unless
[3]
you are very nimble tony dwyer's
[5]
canaccord genuity's chief market
[7]
strategist
[8]
sitting on the sidelines tony and you
[9]
say until the fed changes course or
[11]
there's a policy change what is
[13]
what does that mean till they're done
[15]
tightening until they say 100 points is
[17]
on the table i mean
[19]
what does it mean
[21]
well there's a huge difference between
[22]
what a bottom is versus the bottom a
[25]
bottom can come from what we're seeing a
[27]
little bit in extreme oversold condition
[29]
with high pessimism the perception that
[31]
the fed may be discounted in the
[33]
marketplace and you still have some okay
[35]
economic data
[36]
that
[37]
allows you for a rally after that
[39]
initial whoosh that you get in a fed
[41]
driven fear-based precipitous decline so
[44]
as you know mel i think it's a lot like
[46]
1994
[48]
2000 or even 2018 where you get the fed
[51]
comes out
[52]
much more aggressive than anybody
[54]
expects and you just get this powerful
[55]
thumping in the market and liquidity
[58]
kind of disappears not just in the
[59]
market but just in the overall economy
[62]
you get a bounce back that bounce back
[64]
comes from again the oversold condition
[66]
the perception that maybe
[68]
it's gotten too extreme with the fed
[70]
expectations and then you get what i'm
[72]
going to call the fall fall which is the
[74]
economic reality of what happens when
[76]
you withdraw so much money
[79]
so what does the bottom look like to you
[81]
tony
[82]
it's mel it's got to be that the fed
[84]
says we're almost done a kind of an
[86]
ellen greenspan in 1994 where maybe
[89]
we've got one more hike in front of us
[91]
which was early 95 when the economy
[93]
almost went into recession wait a minute
[96]
that's that sounds like it's not going
[97]
to be for a long time tony i know i know
[100]
mel people are used to me being so
[102]
bullish but it's been a little while and
[104]
the reason is
[106]
listen to what neil kashkari said right
[108]
after the fed meeting based on mortgage
[110]
rates going from three percent to five
[112]
and a quarter we have withdrawn
[114]
accommodation faster than we gave it in
[117]
2020.
[118]
think about that statement
[120]
now
[121]
my position here on a bottom is do you
[124]
sell it down 30 you know is the team
[127]
talked about karen appropriately talked
[129]
about with jp morgan's down 33 is that
[132]
the time to sell it
[133]
so i think at this point you want to
[135]
really see that tone change in the fed
[138]
before you quote unquote have to do
[140]
something and if you remember we ended
[142]
the last show with my dad coming
[143]
downstairs and saying to my brother and
[145]
i don't just sit there do something and
[147]
our mantra this whole year has been
[149]
don't just do something sit there you
[151]
don't have to get in on the next
[153]
downtick thinking it's the low if it's
[155]
just alone
[157]
tony it's karen thanks for being on so
[159]
you said until the fed stops what would
[162]
make them stop do you think is it an
[164]
actual rate is it inflation coming in
[166]
is the economy falling apart what is it
[169]
i think it's inflation expectations
[171]
karen i mean it's kind of interesting
[172]
when when you look at the conference
[174]
board consu ceo confidence survey that
[177]
came out on the 18th
[179]
i don't think on a year-over-year basis
[180]
it's ever been as bad as it was it's
[182]
it's the worst since a real recession
[184]
level if you look at the university of
[186]
michigan consumer confidence survey it's
[189]
horrific so i think they're going to
[190]
incorporate some of that into it
[193]
listen what kashkari said i think is
[195]
really important when you give trillions
[197]
of dollars and everybody starts to spend
[199]
like it's always going to be there and
[201]
then you take it away there's some
[203]
disruption and
[204]
you only know how much in hindsight so
[207]
that's when we use our tactical
[208]
indicators to figure out if near term
[211]
it's enough but ultimately it's got to
[213]
be inflation expectations once they
[215]
start coming down which by the way has
[216]
happened to some degree once they come
[219]
down in earnest and the fed believes
[221]
that they've gone far enough on the
[223]
inflation data then you're going to be
[225]
able to get that real turn
[227]
tony great to see you thank you tony
[230]
dwyer
[231]
genuity um yeah there's been a rollover
[234]
in inflation expectations maybe it's
[235]
also because people are thinking that a
[237]
recession is being priced into i mean
[238]
there's there's another way to look at
[240]
that it's good news but it's bad news
[242]
too
[242]
i think in finished goods we we're
[244]
seeing maybe some plateauing i i don't
[246]
think we've seen it in energy and i
[248]
think that's going to feed through and i
[249]
think that's deadly for the consumer and
[250]
i don't think we've seen it at all
[252]
really in labor and services which is
[254]
very very sticky we're going to get fed
[256]
minutes this week we're going to get
[258]
some sense of really where the fed is so
[260]
wednesday is i think kind of a big day
[261]
um the way we've been digesting every
[264]
bit of the fed we had the dollar that
[265]
was over one percent weaker is three
[267]
percent weaker from its highs i think
[269]
it's telling you a couple things one
[270]
first of all maybe the ecb is finally
[272]
getting some religion um it might tell
[275]
you that some people think that the fed
[276]
can't be as aggressive as they thought
[278]
it's all a reason to buy gold but
[280]
inflation is is not going away quickly
[283]
yeah and we've been talking about this
[284]
as it relates to the market so we've had
[286]
the price come down you know that really
[287]
important part of the pe thing but we
[289]
haven't had the e come down right so we
[291]
keep hearing data let's say from fact
[293]
set that the pe on the s p 500 is below
[296]
now the five and ten year averages the
[298]
problem is is that the consensus
[300]
estimates for 2022 and we've been
[301]
talking about this for months for 2022
[304]
earnings is still up 10
[306]
so that's not happening okay like so you
[308]
know like the the pre-announcement
[309]
tonight the the earnings data we got
[311]
last week so until strategists and
[313]
economists kind of ratchet those numbers
[315]
down or analysts following these sectors
[317]
or individual names then we're still
[319]
going to have the expectation of that
[320]
and that's really i think when you try
[322]
to put in a bottom when we start seeing
[325]
strategists go to low single digits
[326]
earnings growth and you throw you know
[328]
let's say it the 10-year average of 17
[331]
on that you bottom out somewhere in the
[333]
i don't know mid to low 3000's in the s
[336]
p 500 so to me i think you continue to
[338]
sell rallies i have no idea how vicious
[340]
the rallies are going to be they have
[341]
not been over the last month and a half
[344]
or so not like we had in january
[345]
february and march but we do need to see
[348]
strategists and analysts capitulate on
[350]
the earnings
[380]
you
Most Recent Videos:
You can go back to the homepage right here: Homepage