馃攳
THE INTERPRETATION OF FINANCIAL STATEMENTS (BY BENJAMIN GRAHAM) - YouTube
Channel: The Swedish Investor
[0]
One day, I looked at a small brewery - the F&M Schaefer Brewing Company.
[4]
I'll never forget looking at the balance sheet and
[7]
noticing that the book value of the company was 40 million dollars higher than the current market cap, with 40 million dollars in intangible assets.
[17]
I said to my colleague:
[19]
"It looks cheap! It's trading for below its Book value! A classic Benjamin Graham value stock!"
[26]
My colleague said: "Look closer"
[29]
I looked at the financial statements,
[31]
but they didn't reveal where these intangible assets came from, so I decided to call Schafer's treasurer and ask.
[43]
"Hi there, I'm looking at your balance sheet right now,
[46]
and I just wonder .. where does these 40 million dollars in intangibles come from?"
[53]
"Oh, don't you know our jingle?"
[66]
That was my first analysis of an intangible asset, and of course it was way way overstated.
[74]
Let's just say that I didn't end up buying the company.
[78]
I wonder how many of today's jingles are carried on company balance sheets?
[85]
The success of an investment ultimately depends on future developments, but they can never be forecasted with accuracy.
[93]
If you have precise information about a company's present situation, however, you are better equipped than others of understanding the future as well.
[102]
Understanding, the current situation of a firm is strongly connected with the correct interpretation of its financial statements, and in this video,
[110]
we'll learn just how to do that, because this is: a top five takeaway summary of
[116]
The Interpretation of Financial Statements, by the legendary father of value investing himself,
[122]
Benjamin Graham.
[128]
Takeaway number 1:
[130]
Understanding the income statement and the balance sheet
[133]
To appreciate the rest of this summary, it's important to be aware of the basics of what an income statement and a balance sheet are.
[142]
Explaining every item on these two statements wouldn't make a good top five list, though,
[146]
so I'll just give a quick introduction here, and then we'll get on with the real juicy stuff.
[153]
The income statement
[156]
The income statement focuses on the revenues of a firm and its expenses during a specific time period,
[162]
normally a quarter or a year.
[165]
The statement begins with revenue and ends up with company earnings or net income.
[171]
Let's see how.
[173]
First, costs of goods are typically subtracted. Then other operating expenses are deducted such as wages,
[181]
transportation, utilities and depreciation
[187]
Now we've calculated the operating income, or the EBIT, which stands for
[192]
Earnings Before Interest and Taxes.
[197]
If we remove interest payments on debt, and
[200]
let the government have their slice of the cake, and
[204]
we removed the "before" because now it's "after", we end up with earnings, or net income.
[212]
The balance sheet
[214]
The balance sheet is a snapshot in time,
[216]
usually December the 31st, which visualizes two sides that must always "balance out" -
[222]
how much a company owns, and how much it owes.
[227]
What it owns is shown on the asset side. What it owes is shown on the liability side.
[234]
Assets are divided primarily into two categories:
[237]
long-term ones, such as machinery, real estate, production plans, and intangibles, and
[243]
current (or short-term) ones such as cash in the bank, liquid securities and inventory.
[250]
The liability side is divided into primarily three parts: the long-term liabilities,
[257]
the current liabilities and
[259]
the shareholders' equity - money that belongs to you as the stock owner.
[266]
Wait, what?? Why is money that belongs to me listed on the liability side?
[272]
Yes, this is kind of confusing, but it should be seen from the company's perspective -
[277]
the shareholders equity is what the company owes to YOU as a shareholder.
[283]
Favorably, it could also be viewed as the difference between assets and liabilities. So essentially ...
[290]
Assets = Liabilities (including shareholders' equity), really means:
[296]
Assets - Liabilities = Shareholders' interest
[302]
Your local accountant may think that this is pure technicalities, but it's the most useful way to view it as an investor.
[313]
Takeaway number 2: Industry Specifics
[317]
From these two statements there are many useful indicators that you can calculate.
[322]
Numbers that will help you in your fundamental analysis of a company.
[326]
However, these numbers typically vary from one industry to the other.
[331]
Let's have a look at three commonly used indicators.
[335]
The net margin
[337]
This indicator can be calculated by taking the net income of a company and
[343]
dividing it by the revenue.
[346]
Basically, it tells you how much money that's left for potential reinvestments in the firm, or for distribution to shareholders,
[352]
per earned dollar in the firm (even though that's a slight simplification).
[357]
The net margin is highly dependent on the specific industry of the stock.
[362]
For instance:
[364]
A 5% margin would be considered terrible for health technology firm, while it might be a great result for a distribution service firm.
[372]
The current ratio
[374]
By dividing current assets with current liabilities, we get the current ratio.
[382]
This is an indicator of whether the company will be able to pay its short-term obligations or not.
[388]
The number better be higher than one,
[391]
especially if the company is struggling with profits, or else it will soon have to sell off long-term assets, borrow more money or
[398]
ask investors for more capital.
[401]
Benjamin Graham suggests that the ratio should be higher than two. But once again, this depends on the industry.
[408]
For example,:
[409]
A construction company might be fine with a number slightly below one, if they have reoccurring profits and a small inventory. On the other hand,
[418]
a manufacturing company at a number below one could be in a bad position.
[422]
Particularly, if its inventory isn't liquid.
[426]
The P/B ratio
[428]
The P/B, or the price-to-book ratio,
[431]
Can be calculated by dividing the market cap of the company with the total value of its balance sheet,
[438]
which is equal to the sum of either the left-hand or right-hand side
[443]
Once again HIGHLY dependent on industry.
[447]
A money bank may have a huge balance sheet and therefore a low P/B ratio, while a
[453]
consulting firm is in the opposite situation.
[457]
As we learn from the story in the introduction,
[460]
sometimes the balance sheet of a company is inflated - and this can cause problems for the stock investor.
[467]
Next we shall see why.
[472]
Takeaway number 3: Watered stocks
[477]
In the introduction, the jingle of Schaefer was mentioned, and
[480]
the fact that the company had entered this in the books as an asset on the balance sheet worth 40 million dollars
[487]
was ... well highlighted and questioned.
[491]
Stocks such as Shaefer are referred to as "watered stocks",
[495]
because of their tendency to overstate values in the financial statements, perhaps especially in the balance sheet.
[503]
Stock watering originally was a method to increase the weight of livestock before a sale.
[511]
Cattle was tricked into bloating itself with water before being weighed during the transaction.
[517]
For stocks traded in these security markets,
[520]
this is so common that Benjamin Graham says that little to no importance at all
[526]
should be given to the part of assets on the balance sheet that are referred to as intangibles.
[532]
"It's the income statement that reveals the real value of assets, not they're arbitrary figures in the balance sheet."
[540]
Inflated numbers in the balance sheet may cause problems in the future for the investor, as
[544]
the company might be forced to write down the value of these inflated assets.
[550]
This results in higher
[552]
depreciations, which affects the net income of the company negatively.
[556]
If a company has a high value of total assets compared to revenues, this could be of major importance to consider,
[563]
because the greater the assets, the greater the possible negative impact on earnings.
[572]
Takeaway number 4: The liquidation value of a firm
[577]
Value investing strives to identify stocks that are priced lower than their intrinsic value,
[583]
something that Benjamin Graham discusses in his The Intelligent Investor (link in the description).
[590]
The intrinsic value is calculated by using
[593]
fundamental analysis, and one method that Ben Graham is famous for in this regard, is the book value approach.
[601]
If a firm was to sell off all its assets today, and
[604]
using that to repay liabilities, the remaining cash is referred to as book value.
[611]
Although it's quite uncommon to see in today's market, a stock with a book value which exceeds its current market cap, is a very interesting opportunity.
[621]
In such a situation,
[624]
shareholders are left with options.
[626]
The downside of investing in the stock is limited, as the shareholders can decide to liquidate the entire business.
[633]
At the same time, there's still a huge potential upside if the company manages to improve its business.
[640]
A word of caution is required though.
[643]
As mentioned in the previous takeaway, assets of a company can be watered.
[648]
Here are three rules of thumb to have in mind when investing using the book value approach:
[654]
- Current assets are typically valued at fairer prices than fixed ones.
[659]
- The company is in a bad bargaining position in the event of a liquidation,
[664]
so assets should probably be valued lower than market value.
[670]
- The characteristics of the assets must also be considered.
[674]
A specialized manufacturing company will probably have a harder time to sell off its
[678]
manufacturing plants than a bank or an insurance company will have to sell off their financial assets.
[689]
Takeaway number 5: Expected returns of the quantitative investor
[695]
An investor that buys stocks when companies look cheap according to their financial statements (only), and
[701]
sell when they look expensive according to the same statements, will probably not make any spectacular profits.
[708]
On the other hand, the investor will probably avoid big losses.
[713]
Therefore, my own analysis consists of two steps:
[717]
Firstly, I filter out companies that look healthy based on financial statements and ratios, and
[723]
secondly, I filter them out based on market trends, competition, scalability and so on.
[730]
The first part is quantitative and the second is qualitative.
[735]
The second part is waaaay more time-consuming,
[738]
but this is also the one that can turn an average stock market return into a spectacular one.
[745]
The famous investor Philip Fisher recommends a similar approach to picking stocks in his Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits
[752]
(link in the description)
[757]
That was everything for Benjamin Graham's The Interpretation of Financial Statements.
[764]
Know thy income statements and balance sheet
[768]
Ratios are useful when considering the fundamentals of a company, but beware! If the numbers are healthy or not depends on the industry.
[777]
It's quite common that stocks are "watered" to look like they perform better than they actually do.
[784]
If a stock is priced lower than its current book value, the intelligent investor should take a closer look -
[790]
this could be a great value investing opportunity.
[794]
To achieve maximum portfolio returns, the value investor should do both a quantitative and
[801]
qualitative analysis of his stock market investments.
[806]
Thank you for watching the full video. Cheers.
Most Recent Videos:
You can go back to the homepage right here: Homepage





