馃攳
In Depth with Brad Byrd: The Dow drops. What does it mean for you? - YouTube
Channel: unknown
[2]
welcome to in-depth after watching the
[5]
numbers you might be keeping a close eye
[7]
on your stock investments or your 401k
[10]
the Dow fell 800 points today that's the
[13]
worst drop this year the bond market
[16]
signaled a warning too that has a record
[18]
a good track record for predicting
[21]
recessions what does this mean for you
[24]
joining me tonight our Tom Reuter and
[26]
Brian Reuter of the Stifel Reuter
[29]
Investment Group father and son we've
[31]
got two perspectives from two different
[34]
generations first question I want to ask
[36]
after seeing all this fluctuation during
[39]
the past several weeks what the world is
[41]
going on I mean how do you read this Tom
[43]
well keep in mind that what we've seen
[47]
today it seems like a lot of points but
[50]
in reality it was just a little over a
[53]
three percent drop and traditionally we
[56]
have seen corrections on a annual basis
[58]
of around about 10% so if you look at
[62]
that it's not as as big as what it
[64]
nearly seems Brian brought some
[68]
information for you he's my stat guy and
[70]
numbers guy and he might want to share
[72]
it because I think the last time that we
[74]
were here we had a similar thing and I
[76]
was telling you earlier it was kind of
[77]
like deja vu a little bit that's right a
[79]
thousand point drop I think that was in
[81]
what 2015 yes correct
[83]
August 24th okay he calls it a
[87]
correction what do you call a baby is
[89]
that a good correction you know okay
[91]
most times you'll see in a year's time
[93]
years time you'll see it 10% more
[95]
commonly you'll see the 3 to the 5 3 to
[97]
5% pullback those are both in pretty
[101]
standard and pretty normal it's just
[102]
these last few years we haven't seen
[104]
those type of events very frequently
[106]
that's sort of abnormal but going back
[109]
to 2015
[110]
you had that thousand two point drop in
[112]
the day but by the end of the day it
[114]
only closed off about 588 that's
[117]
actually back then to be in the top 20
[119]
percentage down days that's what we
[121]
really need to be thinking in terms of
[123]
points we need to be thinking in terms
[125]
of percentage today the market was only
[127]
off three point zero five percent that
[129]
doesn't even come into the top 20% down
[132]
days
[133]
in the history of the Dow but the bond
[136]
market what it is doing I mean the word
[139]
recession that makes people a people
[142]
nervous they still have memories of the
[144]
Great Recession of 2007
[147]
well what do you put in that as far as
[149]
what the stock market is telling Main
[152]
Street keep keep in mind it that the
[154]
well you're referring to is the
[155]
inversion of the yield curve where the
[158]
2-year Treasury is paying more than the
[160]
ten-year Treasuries we had an innard a
[164]
breakdown of the yield curve and it
[167]
inverted it did not finish the day as an
[171]
inversion the yield curve at the end of
[173]
the day was flat which means two years
[176]
in 10 years were paying the exact same
[178]
rate I think the rate was one point five
[180]
eight percent we're seeing a lot of that
[185]
happen because there's a lot of global
[187]
uncertainty it was kind of funny Brian
[190]
brought up some statistics is that the
[192]
last time we were here for here almost
[193]
four years were short about 10 days we
[197]
were talking about the same kind of
[199]
issues that were all right now four
[201]
years ago we were talking about the
[203]
trade war with China we were talking
[205]
about the issue of China's economy is
[207]
slowing well we're talking about that
[209]
again today and tariffs or tariffs don't
[212]
care about Germany also being slower
[213]
well I'm Germany is slower we have
[215]
Europe that is slow slow down as well I
[217]
think it was pretty interesting today
[219]
Janet Yellen who was the former chairman
[221]
of the Federal Reserve brought out a
[224]
thing is saying well she doesn't think
[225]
the inversion of the yield curve doesn't
[227]
always mean a recession it may be
[230]
different you have to look at the fact
[232]
that the US economy unlike the rest of
[234]
the world is still very strong and
[237]
that's been a big help to us but if the
[240]
rest of the world catches a severe cold
[242]
we're probably going to get a little bit
[243]
of a cold - and that is ok it trickles
[246]
down and and Brian what do you think is
[248]
gonna happen tomorrow I mean it is so
[250]
volatile right when you looked at the
[251]
futures of features are pointing up at
[253]
right around 99 points so that's
[255]
implying that tomorrow morning when the
[256]
market opens as a currently stands that
[259]
the mark is gonna open up a little bit
[261]
okay and with that being
[263]
and what advice would you give to an
[266]
investor I can I can hear right now
[269]
you've been through this a lot badly
[271]
yeah we can probably do this by heart
[273]
the real strategy is that you really
[276]
need to have a plan and most people that
[279]
are using professionals in fact do have
[281]
plans and you should adhere to that plan
[283]
and stay the course we get a lot of
[286]
questions from people that say okay what
[287]
should I do with my 401k money well we
[290]
think you should do nothing with it you
[292]
don't sell it when it's down if you have
[296]
some long-term money and you're not
[298]
getting a good return on it now might be
[300]
an appropriate time to pay parts put
[303]
some of that in the market because we
[304]
like to always use the analogy that the
[307]
markets on sale and everybody likes a
[309]
bargain and you can make changes right
[312]
online right now to the pie and that's
[315]
good but it probably makes sense to stay
[317]
of course there's a reason it's Sainz
[319]
buy low sell high yeah and these drops
[323]
that you see today like 800 point drops
[325]
those can create opportunities for
[326]
people who got cash sitting on the
[327]
sidelines tip to pull but keep in mind
[329]
is that trying to make a lot of moves
[332]
with your 401k is not necessarily a
[335]
positive thing if you stay invested I
[339]
think I've been in the 401k for like 43
[342]
years and that may be given a little bit
[343]
of way of my age okay but in 43 years I
[346]
think I've made exactly maybe two
[348]
changes and I've looked at other people
[351]
in my same profession that have made a
[352]
many many more changes and my balance is
[355]
I hate to tell you or a lot larger than
[356]
what those are and I think stay invested
[359]
what people fail to realize is that the
[362]
opportunity is in the market and if
[365]
you're not in the market on those days
[366]
where the market goes up a lot you're
[368]
missing most of the return and typically
[369]
that happens over just a several two or
[371]
three days in the year and so it's it's
[374]
very important to stay invested in I
[376]
don't know I mean that one famous person
[378]
said one time the the corn crop may fail
[381]
the
[382]
the bean crop may fail but the Americans
[386]
love with the stock market and the
[388]
investing has never failed and I think
[390]
that the were the strongest global
[392]
economy in the world and will continue
[394]
to prosper I have no doubt of that well
[396]
thank you very much for being with us
[398]
tonight something tells me we'll be
[399]
talking again from
Most Recent Videos:
You can go back to the homepage right here: Homepage