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Factoring In Racial Demographic Information In Election Predictions - YouTube
Channel: MSNBC
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there are fewer than 100 days until
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election day and with republicans a mere
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four net seats away from taking back the
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house tracking potential toss-ups has
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become crucial the cook political report
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predicts 26 seats held by democrats as
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toss-ups but long-time political
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activist steve phillips argues that that
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picture is incomplete without
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incorporating racial demographic data
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into the mix something that could be a
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game changer as the demographics in this
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country continue to shift
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joining me now is steve phillips host of
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the democracy in color podcast and
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author of the forthcoming book how we
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win the civil war securing a multiracial
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democracy and ending white supremacy for
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good and he's also the author of brown
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is the new white and you need to read
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that
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first before the next book comes out
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which isn't until october that steve
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thank you very much tell me about the
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new majority index that you have come up
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with
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so i built the new majority index to
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analyze the competitiveness of
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congressional districts to do so with a
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race conscious lens and i did so for two
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reasons and that first racial identity
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is one of the most salient and
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predictive data points about political
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behavior and you can't understand this
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country or its politics without applying
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a race conscious analysis strictly from
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a data standpoint it's fundamental every
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presidential election since 1976 when as
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the polling began
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88 of democrat of african-americans vote
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democrat and just 40 percent of whites
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so you can't just look at the electorate
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as one undifferentiated mass of voters
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and the second reason is that most of
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the conventional wisdom about elections
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particularly midterm elections is based
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on an entirely incorrect premise and
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it's the premise that elections are
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decided by macroeconomic factors such as
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inflation or gas prices that cause
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voters to shift their vote shift their
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allegiances between political parties
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but elections are about turnout voter
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turnout and the real macro environment
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is that this country is engaged in a
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ferocious battle between those who want
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america to be a multi-racial
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multi-cultural democracy and those who
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want to make america white again and the
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midterms will be decided by which side
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does a better job of getting its
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supporters to turn out and vote and so i
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built the new majority index to properly
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interpret the times in which we are in
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and i explicitly incorporate racial
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demographic data in determining which
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races are most competitive and what the
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landscape looks like for the midterms
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okay then steve and that and that was
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fantastic um your your briefing there
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cook political report predicts 26
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toss-up seats are held by democrats what
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does the new majority index say
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we think that there are 11 seats that
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are democratic states that are in danger
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even with a high turnout
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operation but we think that there are 22
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republican seats that actually could be
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flipped if you look at mobilizing
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turnout and people the stuff the
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starting point needs to be in terms of
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understanding this election
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just in 2020
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joe biden won the most votes in 226 of
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these seats you need 218 for a majority
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and so if you look at the racial
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voter turnout gap which is a core
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component of the data that we look at we
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look at the the racial composition of
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district and voter turnout biracial
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group and calculate and add that into
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the same factors that cook looks at
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then you actually see that there's much
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more potential with a high turnout
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effort and that has implications for
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strategy and spending for the democrats
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as well
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[Music]
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