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Stock Market Highs Owe A Lot To Washington, Says Steve Rattner | MSNBC - YouTube
Channel: MSNBC
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AUTHOR OF THE BOOK "WHICH
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COUNTRY HAS THE WORLDS BEST
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HEALTH CARE?"
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WE APPRECIATE YOU BEING ON THIS
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MORNING.
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>>> TURNING TO THE ECONOMY NOW
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AND A STOCK MARKET THAT SEEMS TO
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BE BRUSHING OFF THE CONCERNS
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OVER THE DELTA VARIANT, THE DOW
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JUMPED MORE THAN 200 POINTS ON
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FRIDAY.
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FINISHING ABOVE 35,000 FOR THE
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FIRST TIME EVER AND BRINGING ITS
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GAIN FOR 2021 TO MORE THAN 14%.
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JOINING US NOW FORMER TREASURY
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OFFICIAL AND "MORNING JOE"
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ECONOMIC ANALYST STEVE RATNER.
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>> STEVE, THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR
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BEING WITH US.
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I THINK WE MAY GET INTO A PLACE
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WHERE WE WERE ABOUT A YEAR
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AGO --
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>> WAS IT A YEAR AGO?
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IN.
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>> I GUESS ABOUT A YEAR AGO
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WHERE THE MARKET WOULD GO UP ONE
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DAY, COME DOWN.
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GO UP, COME DOWN.
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WE HAD THAT LAST WEEK THURSDAY
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AND FRIDAY, WHERE THE MARKET ON
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FRIDAY SEEMED TO AT LEAST SHRUG
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OFF THE CONCERNS ABOUT THE
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RISING DELTA VARIANT.
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WHAT ARE YOU EXPECTING THIS
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COMING WEEK AND WHATS REALLY
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BEEN THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THE
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MARKETS?
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>> JOE, AS YOU SAY, THE MARKET
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HAS BEEN A BIT MORE VOLATILE
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RECENTLY AND THAT DOES REFLECT
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THE MARKET WITH THE VIRUS.
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AT THE MOMENT, AS YOU SAID, THEY
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ARE BRUSHING IT OFF.
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LET ME TRY TO PUT THAT IN A BIT
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OF LONGER TERM CONTEXT GOING
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BACK ABOUT A YEAR AND A HALF AND
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TALKING ABOUT WHAT THE MARKET
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HAS BEEN DOING SINCE THEN, WHICH
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IS ESSENTIALLY GOING STRAIGHT
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UP.
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WHAT IM -- IM SHOWING HERE
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THREE DIFFERENT MARKET INDEXES
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BECAUSE PEOPLE TALK ABOUT THE
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DOW BUT ITS ONLY ONE OF THREE,
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AND NOT THE MOST USEFUL OR
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ACCURATE OF THE THREE.
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THE DOW ITSELF AS YOU CAN SEE
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GOING BACK TO THE BEGINNING OF
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2020 IS UP 21%.
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THAT GRAY AREA IS THE BRIEF
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RECESSION WE HAD, THE SHORTEST
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RECESSION ON RECORD.
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THE DO YOU AND OTHER INDEXES
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WENT DOWN AND SINCE THEN HAVE
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BEEN ON A STRAIGHT UP CLAIM.
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BUT THE DOW, WHICH REPRESENTS
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OLD ECONOMY COMPANIES LIKE
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CHEVRON AND BOEING, THE NASDAQ,
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WHICH IS THE BLUE LINE AT THE
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TOP, WHICH IS MOSTLY THE TECH
AND GROWTH COMPANIES IS UP 63%.
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AND GROWTH COMPANIES IS UP 63%.
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AND THE S&P IS UP 35%.
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ALSO OUTPERFORMING THE DOW THE
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YELLOW LINE AT THE BOTTOM.
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WHY IS THAT HAPPENING?
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WE OWE A LOT TO WASHINGTON,
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ACTUALLY.
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A LOT DONE IN WASHINGTON HAS
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HELPED THE STOCK MARKET
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SUBSTANTIALLY.
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FIRST AND FOREMOST AS YOU CAN
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SEE ON THE NEXT CHART.
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THE AMOUNT OF STIMULUS WE PUT
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INTO THE ECONOMY HAS CAUSED THE
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RECESSION TO BE UNBELIEVABLY
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SHORT.
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YOU CAN SEE THE TURQUOISE LINE,
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THE PROFITS OF ALL THE S&P
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COMPANIES PUT TOGETHER, DID FULL
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DURING THE INITIAL STAGES OF THE
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PANDEMIC AND THE RECESSION, BUT
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THEN THEY JUMPED RIGHT BACK UP.
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AND YOU CAN SEE IN THE FIRST
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QUARTER OF THIS YEAR, THE
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TURQUOISE LINE, CORPORATE
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PROFITS ACTUALLY HIT AN ALL-TIME
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RECORD AND THEYRE PROJECTED TO
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CONTINUE TO GO UP.
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SO THATS --
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>> STEVE, CAN I ASK YOU --
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>> YES, OF COURSE.
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>> WHY ARE CORPORATE PROFITS
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REACHING A RECORD LEVEL RIGHT
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NOW?
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>> THATS A GOOD QUESTION, JOE.
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THEYRE REACHING A RECORD LEVEL
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BECAUSE OF ALL THE MONEY -- IN
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PART BECAUSE OF ALL THE MONEY WE
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HAVE POURED IN THIS ECONOMY HAS
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CAUSED CONSUMERS TO GO OUT AND
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SPEND.
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SO WHEN WE GET A GDP NUMBER ON
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THURSDAY, WHICH IS STRONG,
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CONSUMER SPENDING NUMBERS ARE
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STRONG AND WHAT IT ALSO MEANT IS
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THAT CORPORATIONS HAVE PRICING
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POWER, THEYVE BEEN ABLE TO
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RAISE PRICES THATS WHY WERE
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TALKING ABOUT INFLATION.
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WHEN YOU PUT IT TOGETHER, ITS
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STRONG CORPORATE PROFITS.
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>> STEVE, LET ME ASK YOU ANOTHER
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QUESTION JUST A LITTLE OFF TRACK
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HERE.
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IVE BEEN TRAVELING AROUND THE
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NORTHEAST THIS SUMMER, BEEN
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TRAVELING AROUND NEW ENGLAND,
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AROUND THE DEEP SOUTH, AND ITS
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THE SAME STORY EVERYWHERE I GO.
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THERE ARE PEOPLE WHO ARE LOOKING
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DESPERATELY FOR EMPLOYEES, IVE
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SEEN McDONALDS, IVE SEEN
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McDONALDS SAYING, YOU KNOW,
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THAT THEY WERE -- THAT HAVE
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SIGNS ALL OVER THE PLACE WHEN I
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WENT IN TO, OF COURSE, BUY MY
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DAILY BIG MAC VALUE MEAL BECAUSE
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IT IS A VALUE MEAL, MIKA, SO IM
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SAVING MONEY.
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BUT THERES SIGNS ALL OVER THE
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PLACE, TALKING ABOUT BONUSES,
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BURGER KING TALKING ABOUT
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BONUSES.
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I WENT PAST A LOBSTER RESTAURANT
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LAST NIGHT, TALKED ABOUT A BIG
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SIGNING BONUS.
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IVE SEEN SMALL MOM AND POP
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OPERATIONS SAYING THEY CAN ONLY
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WORK FOUR OR FIVE HOURS A DAY
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BECAUSE THEY HAVE FAMILY MEMBERS
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WORKING FOR THEM AND NOBODY
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ELSE.
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GAS STATION IN RURAL PART OF NEW
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ENGLAND THAT ACTUALLY HAD ON
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THEIR SIGN $20 AN HOUR,
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DESPERATELY NEED WORKERS.
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WHATS GOING ON WITH THAT?
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I KNOW A LOT OF PEOPLE ARE
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SAYING THATS HAPPENING BECAUSE
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OF THE $300 EXTRA IN
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UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFITS.
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AND WHEN THAT WASHES OUT OF THE
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SYSTEM PEOPLE WILL START COMING
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BACK TO WORK.
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OF COURSE, WEVE SEEN AGAIN, AND
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THIS IS ALL OVER THE PLACE.
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THE "THE NEW YORK TIMES," BOSTON
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GLOBE WRITING STORIES ABOUT HOW
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SUMMER CAMPS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED
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HALFWAY THROUGH BECAUSE THEYVE
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HAD CAMP COUNSELORS JUST GET UP
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AND LEAVE BECAUSE THEY DIDNT
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WANT TO WORK.
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WHATS GOING ON?
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IS THAT AFFECTING THE MACRO
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ECONOMY RIGHT NOW?
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AND HOW MUCH LONGER UNTIL THAT
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SORT OF WASHES OUT AND WE GET
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BACK TO A SITUATION WHERE,
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ACTUALLY, SMALL FAMILY
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RESTAURANTS WILL BE ABLE TO
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EMPLOY WORKERS AGAIN?
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>> YOUR BASIC TAKE ON THE
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SITUATION IS ABSOLUTELY CORRECT.
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WE HAVE A RECORD NUMBER OF JOB
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OPENINGS IN THIS COUNTRY, OVER 9
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MILLION JOBS ARE AVAILABLE IN
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THIS COUNTRY YET WE HAVE A
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RELATIVELY HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT
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RATE AND AS YOU SAY, MANY PEOPLE
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NOT WACHBTING TO GO BACK TO
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WORK.
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WHY ARE THEY NOT WANTING TO GO
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BACK TO WORK?
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THERE WAS A POLL A COUPLE WEEKS
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AGO THAT I THINK BASICALLY WAS
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PRETTY ACCURATE.
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THERE ARE A VARIETY OF REASONS,
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IN NO PARTICULAR ORDER, THE FACT
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THERE ARE EXTRA CHECKS FOR
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UNEMPLOYMENT OUT THERE, $300 A
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WEEK THAT EXPIRE IN SEPTEMBER,
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EXCEPT HALF THE STATES HAVE
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ALREADY STOPPED IT.
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SO YOU DO HAVE THE EFFECTS OF
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UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE.
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YOU HAVE THE EFFECTS THAT
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HOUSEHOLDS ARE ACTUALLY IN
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PRETTY GOOD FINANCIAL SHAPE
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BECAUSE OF ALL THE MONEY WE
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POURED INTO THE ECONOMY BECAUSE
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THEY COULDNT SPEND LAST YEAR AS
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MUCH AS THEY USUALLY DO, THERES
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AN ESTIMATED $2 TRILLION IN
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HOUSEHOLD BANK ACCOUNTS WAITING
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TO BE SPENT SO THEY DONT FEEL
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AN URGE TO GO BACK.
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AND THEN YOU GET INTO THE ISSUES
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ABOUT CHILD CARE, HEALTH CARE
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FEARS JUST LIKE YOUVE BEEN
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TALKING ABOUT THIS MORNING.
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AND YOU ALSO HAVE THIS KIND OF
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EVEN SOFTER FEELING AROUND THAT
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A LOT OF PEOPLE ARE SAYING I
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DONT WANT TO GO BACK TO THOSE
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JOBS, BACK TO WORKING IN THE
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KITCHEN OF A BURGER KING AND IM
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GOING TO STEP BACK AND WAIT AS
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LONG AS I CAN, AND FIGURE OUT IF
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THERES SOMETHING BETTER FOR ME
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OUT THERE THAN BEING IN THE
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KITCHEN OF A BURGER KING.
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PRESUMABLY THIS FALL THOSE
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FACTORS DISAPPEAR, SCHOOLS
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REOPEN, EXTRA UNEMPLOYMENT
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DISAPPEAR, PEOPLE WILL FEEL LIKE
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THEY NEED TO EARN A LIVING.
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I CANT TELL YOU WHEN.
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SO FAR IT HAS NOT HAD A MASSIVE
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IMPACT ON THE ECONOMY BUT WELL
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SEE HOW IT EVOLVES GOING
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FORWARD.
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>> STEVE RATNER, THANK YOU VERY
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MUCH.
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MIKA, IT WOULD BE DANGEROUS FOR
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ME TO BE IN THE KITCHEN OF A
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