What's the Deal with the Green New Deal? - YouTube

我们面临着一项现实存在的威胁 We face an existential threat.

我们所熟知的生活 正命悬一线 Life as we know it is on the line.

我们只有短短12年的时间 来改变一切 We have 12 short years to change everything,

否则 游戏结束 or it's game over.

这幕令人惊悚的场景 This is the terrifying scenario,

被许多顶尖的政客用来 that's used by many leading politicians,

为一项“绿色新政”洗地： to justify a "Green New Deal":

它是一款史无前例的计划 用以提升政府的权力 an unprecedented increase in government power,

以聚焦于能源产业为抓手 focused on the energy industry.

一项类似“绿色新政”的计划 其核心理念 The core idea of a Green New Deal,

是政府应该迅速禁止 化石燃料能源的使用 is that government should rapidly prohibit the use of fossil fuel energy,

并强制推行“100%可再生能源” and impose "100% renewable energy",

主要为 太阳能和风能 mostly solar and wind.

听上去 这或许令人心醉神迷 This may sound appealing,

但 想一想 这将会伴随着怎样的代价 but consider what it would entail.

今天 Today,

美国人使用能源中的80% 80% of the energy Americans use,

用来 给他们的住宅供暖 to heat their homes,

耕作他们的土地 farm their land,

运转他们的工厂 run their factories,

以及 驱动他们的汽车 and drive their cars,

都来自化石燃料： comes from fossil fuels:

煤炭 coal,

石油 oil,

以及 天然气 and natural gas.

仅仅只有3.4% 来自太阳能和风能 —— Only 3.4% comes from solar and wind —

尽管几十年来 政府通过补贴手段和强制措施 despite decades of government subsidies and mandates,

以鼓励对它们的使用 to encourage their use.

我们没有将阳光和风力 大规模用作能源的原因 The reason we don't use much sunlight and wind as energy,

是因为 它们是不可靠的燃料 is that they are unreliable fuels,

它们仅仅是在 that only work,

阳光照耀 when the sun shines,

和风在起时 才管用 and the wind blows.

这就是为何 没有集镇 That's why no town,

城市 或 国家 city, or country,

曾经实现 接近于 has ever come close,

100%地 —— to 100% —

或 甚至50%地 —— or even 50% —

依赖太阳能和风能 solar and wind.

不过 And yet,

“绿色新政”的倡议者们说 她们能够做到亩产万斤 —— Green New Deal proponents say they can do the impossible —

只要我们愿意交给政府 能源产业的控制权 if only we give the government control of the energy industry,

以及 能源消费主要用户的控制权 and control of major users of energy,

例如 such as,

交通运输产业 the transportation industry,

制造业 manufacturing,

以及 农业 and agriculture.

所有这一切 都通过 需要“有所作为”的说辞 来洗白 All of this is justified by the need to "do something",

以消除那“现实存在的威胁” about the "existential threat",

应对高涨的CO2水平 of rising CO2 levels.

我们日复一日地被告知 We're told on a daily basis,

声誉卓著的组织 that prestigious organizations,

譬如 联合国 like the United Nations,

已经预测出了 大规模的毁灭和死亡 have predicted mass destruction and death,

如果我们不摆脱化石燃料 if we don't get off fossil fuels.

我们没有被告知的 What we're not told,

是此种预测 有着一项 长达数十年的跟踪记录 is that such predictions have a decades-long track record,

显示 它们搞错了 —— of getting it wrong —

至于错误的程度 and by wrong,

我指的是 I mean,

完完全全 脱离镖靶的 completely-missing-the-dart-board,

错误 wrong.

例如 For example,

1989年 in 1989,

美联社曾报道过一则 联合国所做出的预测 the Associated Press reported a United Nations prediction that,

“所有国家 都有可能 被从地球的表面抹去 "entire nations could be wiped off the face of the earth,

由于不断上涨的海平面 by rising sea levels,

如果全球变暖的趋势 无法得到逆转 if the global warming trend is not reversed,

在2000年之前” by the year 2000."

如今 2000年已经过去20年了 We're now two decades past 2000,

没有任何国家 在我们眼前消失 we're not missing any nations,

而且 人类的生活状况 是更长寿 and human beings are living longer,

更健康 healthier,

并且 更为富裕 and wealthier lives,

相比以往任何时候 than ever before.

但事情难道 未必会变得更糟吗？ But aren't things bound to get worse?

科学家不是已经证明了 Haven't scientists established,

CO2是一种温室气体 that CO2 is a greenhouse gas,

对于地球的暖化 具有一种影响效应吗？ with a warming influence on the planet?

没错 —— Yes —

不过 那仅仅是一片小小的局部 but that's only a small part,

包含在那幅巨大构图之中 of the big picture.

尽管CO2会导致某些暖化 Although CO2 causes some warming,

但影响却远非举足轻重 it's much less significant,

相较于我们被告知的那些 than we've been told.

自从我们开始大规模地 使用化石燃料以来 Since we started using significant amounts of fossil fuels,

它兴起于19世纪中叶 in the middle of the 19th century,

我们已经将大气中的CO2浓度 we've increased the percentage of CO2 in the atmosphere,

从0.03% 提升 from .03%,

至0.04% to .04%,

它与一项平均温度的上升相关联 which correlates with an average temperature increase,

其升幅约为2℉ of about 2 degrees Fahrenheit.

它同样也与显著的全球绿色化相关联 —— It also correlates with significant global greening —

因为CO2 because CO2,

是植物的养分 is plant food.

所有这些 对我们这个星球而言 绝非是史无前例的景象 All of this is far from unprecedented territory for our planet,

地球上曾经存在过 which has existed,

至少10倍于今日之CO2水平 with at least 10 times today's CO2 levels,

以及 一种平均温度高出25度的情况 and a 25-degree warmer average temperature.

然而 如今真正属于史无前例的 What is truly unprecedented, though,

是我们免于气候危害的境况 有多安全 is how safe we are from climate.

国际灾害数据库 The International Disaster Database,

一家非党派组织 a nonpartisan organization,

它跟踪研究死亡状况 that tracks deaths,

由与气候相关原因所导致 —— from climate-related causes —

例如 酷暑 such as extreme heat,

洪水 风暴 floods, storms,

以及 干旱 —— and drought —

显示 这样的死亡状况 呈断崖式下跌态势 shows that such deaths have been plummeting,

当CO2的排放量 持续增加时 as CO2 emissions have been rising.

这怎么可能？ How is this possible?

因为 化石燃料能源 Because of the fossil fuel energy,

它们会排放CO2 that emitted the CO2,

它们也赋予了我们能量 which has empowered us,

以创造抵御气候危害的环境 to climate-proof our environment,

包括供暖 with heating,

空调装置 air-conditioning,

坚固的建筑 sturdy buildings,

大规模灌溉 mass irrigation,

以及天气预警系统 and weather warning systems.

化石燃料能源 并未夺走一个 天然安全的气候 Fossil fuel energy has not taken a naturally safe climate,

并且 使它变得 非天然地危险 and made it unnaturally dangerous;

它送走了 我们天然就危险的气候 it's taken our naturally dangerous climate,

并使它变得 非天然地安全 and made it unnaturally safe.

化石燃料并不是 Fossil fuels are not,

一种现实存在的威胁 an existential threat.

它们是一种现实存在的资源 They are an existential resource,

因为它们提升了某些 重要得多的东西 because they increase something much more important,

相较于 大气中的CO2水平： than the level of CO2 in the atmosphere:

人类增权益能的水平 the level of human empowerment.

获得提升的人生预期 Increased life expectancy,

收入 income,

健康 health,

闲暇时光 leisure time,

以及 教育水准 and education,

全部都与 are all tightly linked,

获得提升的化石燃料 to increased access,

可取得性 紧密相关 to fossil fuels.

这是否意味着 Does this mean,

我们不应该 为更低碳的能源 寻求替代方案？ that we shouldn't look for lower carbon energy alternatives?

当然不是 Of course not.

但那些替代方案 应该引领我们走向 有更多丰富性 But the alternatives should lead us toward more abundant,

更多可靠性的能源 more reliable power,

而不是 not,

更少 less.

最有希望 可用作替代方案的能源形式 The most promising form of alternative energy,

并非是 不可靠的太阳能和风能 is not unreliable solar and wind,

而是 可靠的 but reliable,

无碳排放的核能 carbon-free nuclear energy.

瑞典从核能 获取了它40%的电力 Sweden gets 40% of its electricity from nuclear.

法国 France,

超过70% over 70%.

尽管核能被诋毁为不安全 While nuclear energy is smeared as unsafe,

实际上 反反复复的研究已经证明了 it has actually been demonstrated by study after study,

它是迄今为止 所发明的 最为安全的能源形式 to be the safest form of energy ever created.

然而 And yet,

绿色新政的倡议者们 Green New Deal proponents,

她们说 我们还有12年时间 who say that we have 12 years,

可用于 从CO2水平高涨的危机中 拯救这颗星球 to save the planet from rising CO2 levels,

激烈地反对核能 —— vigorously oppose nuclear —

在排斥使用一切化石燃料的基础上 in addition to all fossil-fuel use.

通过反对每一种可负担 By opposing every affordable,

来源丰富 abundant,

可靠的能源形式 reliable form of energy,

“绿色新政”将不会保护我们 免受一种现实存在的威胁 the Green New Deal won't protect us from an existential threat;

它才是 it is,

一种现实存在的威胁 an existential threat.

我是亚历克斯·爱泼斯坦 I'm Alex Epstein,

《化石燃料的道德问题》一书的作者 author of The Moral Case for Fossil Fuels,

为普拉格大学制作 for Prager University.