Public Pensions: An Economic Time Bomb - YouTube

我想跟你聊聊 I want to talk to you,

有关于三个词 about three words,

那应该会让你 惊出一身冷汗 that should scare the heck out of you,

特别是 如果你是年轻人： especially if you're young:

公共 public,

养老金 pension,

债务 liabilities.

好吧 我知道 你大概有一百桩事情 Okay, I know you probably have about a hundred things,

让你心烦意乱 you're worried about,

而 公共养老金债务 可能不是其中之一 and public pension liabilities likely aren't one of them.

但那就是 这事如此骇人的原因所在 — But that's the reason this is so scary —

因为 它几乎没有引起 人们的关注 because almost no one is paying attention.

除非你不以为意： Unless you're okay,

你的城市正彻底变成 底特律 with your city going full Detroit,

并且 从你辛苦挣来的钱中 拿出更多 and giving more of your hard-earned money,

去清偿 别人欠下的债务 to pay off someone else's debts,

听我细细道来 stay with me.

那 何谓一种名为公共养老金的债务? So what is a public pension liability?

一份养老金 指的是一种获得保障的 需要毕生 A pension is a guaranteed, lifetime payment,

向某人 在他退休后给予的支付 to someone, after they retire.

在私营行业 退休金曾经是一个大问题 Pensions used to be a big deal in the private sector.

每一家美国主要的公司 都曾提供养老金 Every major American company had them.

但 它们变得太过于昂贵 But they became too expensive,

然后 各家公司已经采取步骤 逐步废止 and companies have taken steps to phase them out.

然而 However,

养老金仍然继续存在 pensions still live on,

于公营部门 —— in the public sector —

存在于政府的雇员之中 —— among employees of the government —

然后 它们正轻而易举地耗尽 城市和各州的预算 and they're eating city and states' budgets alive.

越来越多的款项 More and more money,

它们本可以用作冲抵减税 that could go to tax cuts,

或提供更好的服务 or better services,

却反其道而行 被储备起来 is instead being shoveled aside,

以便支付这些养老补助金 to pay for these benefits.

为何会发生这些情况？ Why is this happening?

几十年来 Over decades,

政客们许下诺言 politicians have promised,

在养老金上投入数万亿美元 提供给政府工作人员 trillions of dollars in pensions to government workers.

那些人包括 警察 That includes police,

消防员 firefighters,

教师 teachers,

以及 城市和各州的官员们 and city and state officials.

你举出一份政府工作的名字 You name a government job,

那么 就存在一份与之相关的养老金 and there's a pension associated with it.

这会儿 你可能正在犯嘀咕 Now, you may be wondering,

“这些款项的金额有多大？” "How big are these payments?"

许多的养老金数额 相当可观 Many pensions are quite large.

在加州 In California,

超过62,000名退休的政府雇员 more than 62,000 retired public employees,

正在领取的养老金数额 超过每年十万美元 are receiving pensions of over $100,000 per year.

有的时候 Sometimes,

情况甚至更疯狂 it's even crazier.

纽约市一名退休的环卫局工人 A retired New York City sanitation worker,

正在领取 每年285,000美元 is getting $285,000 per year.

在加利福尼亚 一名退休的县行政长官 会领取 A retired county administrator in California receives,

每年超过四十万美元 over $400,000 per year.

记住 Remember,

这些是获得保障的 these are guaranteed,

终身每年都要付的开支 lifetime yearly payouts.

好吧 我们热爱 我们的政府雇员 Now, we love our public employees.

他们的工作很重要 They do vital work,

对于 我们本地的社区 for our local communities,

以及 更大范围的社会 and the wider society.

他们配得上 They deserve,

有竞争力的薪酬 competitive pay,

以及 退休后所享的津贴 and retirement benefits.

但是 目前 But currently,

许多的城市 many cities are,

实际上 in effect,

正在同一时间 为重复的公共部门付款： paying for multiple public departments at the same time:

那个 现在正在运作的部门 the department that's working now,

以及 由于人们的寿命 正在延长 and, because people are living longer,

一代 或者是 两代的 a generation or two,

退休人员 of retirees.

这个系统相当于是一座 自我延续的 The system amounts to a self-perpetuating,

腐败的 旋转木马 corrupt merry-go-round.

公营部门的工会 Public-sector unions,

向候选人 提供了大笔的捐款 give large donations to candidates,

而候选人 则随后会负责 商议决定 who are then responsible for negotiating,

你缴的税款中 有多少 会交给 公营部门的工作人员使用 how much of your money goes to public sector workers.

这样的安排 不仅仅会承诺 These arrangements not only promise,

短期内兑现的 高额薪水 high salaries in the short-term,

而且他们也会藏匿 but they also hide,

在未来 将不得不支付的款项 the payments that will be due down the road,

那时 这些都将变得为时太晚 when it will be much too late.

这个结果 是可以预料的 The results are predictable.

遍及全美的各州和地方政府 State and local governments across the U.S.,

公开承认 存在1.4万亿美元 openly admit to 1.4 trillion dollars,

无法给付的 短期养老金债务 of unfunded pension liabilities,

也就是说 每户11,000美元 or $11,000 per household.

“无法给付”的意思是 已经被承诺 将要支付的钱 "Unfunded" means dollars that have been promised,

但是 在银行账户上 实际上却没有钱 but there's no actual money in the bank.

而且 这笔数额 只不过是他们承认的 And that's just the amount they admit to.

真实的数字 The real number,

根据美联储的数据 according to the Federal Reserve,

要大得多 —— is much larger —

大约为 四万亿美元 around 4 trillion dollars,

也就是说 每户32,000美元 or $32,000 per household.

养老金困局 已经将加利福尼亚的城市 Pensions have already thrown California cities,

例如 圣贝纳迪诺 like San Bernardino,

以及 瓦列霍 and Vallejo,

置于破产的境地 into bankruptcy.

同时 整个的伊利诺伊州 And the entire state of Illinois,

正在其边缘 摇摇欲坠 is teetering on the edge.

那么 政客们怎么做 才能避免被追责？ So how do politicians get away with this?

他们使用一款 屡试不爽的政治策略： They use a time-tested political strategy:

他们撒谎 they lie.

他们撒谎 They lie,

通过夸口说 他们能够支付 越来越慷慨的养老金 —— by saying they can pay for more and more generous pensions —

不是通过收缴 更多的税款 not by collecting more taxes,

而是通过 对一项保障收益率达到7.5%的项目 进行投资 but by making investments at a "guaranteed" 7.5% return.

但那是 胡说八道 But this is nonsense.

这种可能性 越来越小 It's less and less likely,

即 时移世易 他们仍能达其7.5%的目标 they'll meet their 7.5% goal over time,

而且 他们的投资行为 —— and their investment behavior —

将较以往更多的资金 注入 较以往更具风险的投资项目 — pouring ever more funds into ever riskier investments —

表明 他们对此心知肚明 suggests, they know it.

但是 如果他们打算使用一项 更为现实的评估 But if they were to use a more realistic assessment,

他们将会需要 出人意料地增加税负 they'd need to raise taxes dramatically.

然而 他们太爱他们的工作了 没法那么做 And they love their jobs too much for that.

然而 我们能够 We can, however,

扭转局势 使之对我们有利 — turn the odds in our favor —

借助于 公众的压力 with public pressure,

公众自律 discipline,

以及 公众的常识感 and common sense.

以下是 需要采取的措施： Here's what needs to happen:

首先 First,

我们需要 各州和地方政府 we need state and local governments,

如实地报告 无法偿付债务的情况： to report unfunded liabilities honestly:

那个真实的数据 — the real numbers —

使用的回报率为2~3% using the 2-3% yields,

那是 资金充裕的健康财务报告 所要求的 that sound financial reporting would require.

别再玩“天上掉馅饼”的把戏 No more pie-in-the-sky stuff.

真相会让选民受到触动 以致于要求采取行动 The truth should shock voters into demanding action.

第二 Second,

我们必须逐步废止 那种获得保障的养老金计划 we must phase out the guaranteed pension programs,

应当 尽可能地快 as quickly as possible,

并且 引入401K计划 and introduce 401K plans.

401K计划 401K plans,

如果设计得当 if designed properly,

可以提供 极佳的退休补助金 can provide excellent retirement benefits.

这些计划 These plans,

另外也有着 便于携带的优点 also have the advantage of being portable.

如果 你离开公营部门 If you leave the public sector,

然后 进入私营行业工作 and go work in the private sector,

你有机会 带着你的钱离开 you get to take your money with you.

换句话说 In other words,

你不必一辈子 都被锁定在 一份政府工作的岗位上 you don't have to be locked-in to a lifetime government job,

才能换得 退休补助金 to receive retirement benefits.

双赢之道 Win-win.

让我们终结 目前这种 组织公营部门养老金的架构 Let's end the current structure of public sector pensions,

然后 转换至一种 可持续的方式 and move to a sustainable way,

以便为我们的政府从业人员 提供支付 of compensating our public workforce.

救救你的城市 Save your city.

救救你的州 Save your state.

救救你的钱 Save your money.

我是 约书亚·劳 I'm Joshua Rauh,

斯坦福大学的金融学教授 professor of finance at Stanford,

以及 胡佛研究所的高级研究员 and Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution,

为普拉格大学制作 for Prager University.