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CCL, NCLH, RCL Cruse Line Stocks Are Way Oversold - YouTube
Channel: TD Ameritrade Network
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it is time now to spotlight the crews
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industry because the three major lines
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are down in a big way down 45 percent
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this year down 60 percent in the last
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one year ivan finds us with us senior
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partner chief investment officer
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director of research at tigers financial
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partners and you think that this group
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is oversold
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too much to the downside so you're not
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listening to the fact that um you know
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others are worried about dead and zero
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case scenarios
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uh well the industry no industry has
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been hurt more by the pandemic than the
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cruise industry but i believe no
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industry will have proven to be more
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resilient i mean this industry went
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through almost a year and a half with no
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revenue now they are ramping up and a
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lot of them will be running it almost
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full capacity the ships i'm sorry will
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be have the full fleets operational
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by the
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middle of the summer and there's huge
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demand pent-up demand for travel and for
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cruise vacations so i think that you
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could see
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the industry and all four all three of
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the publicly traded cruise lines trade
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at
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um excuse me have a revenue level
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returning to its peak levels of in
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exceeding 2019.
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yeah so you know one of the concerns was
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weaker occupancies
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and pricing um you know maybe that's
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also to do with
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you had a resurgence in covid you have
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inflation running so hot that maybe
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people are pinching their wallet a
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little bit do you think that once the
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fed raises rates a little bit and
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there's less inflationary pressure
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people will go back to the cruise lines
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or they're just not missing out you
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think they're just going to hit it
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no i i i think first of all
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no vacation offers you a better value
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than a cruise vacation for your travel
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dollar
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so
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there is some inflation resistance there
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you get lodging entertainment food
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the opportunity to visit different
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cities so as far as value the cruise
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industry offers the best value and
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there's the consumer has never been more
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flushed there is over two and a half
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trillion dollars in excess savings on
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consumers balance sheet and consumers
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have less debt than they do today than
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they did prior to the pandemic in 2019.
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so the consumer is in better shape the
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industry is in better shape they put all
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kinds of protocols in place to for safe
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travel and to handle any issue if there
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is a resurgence in uh covert 19
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breakouts so i think you have
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uh an opportunity to
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participate and get in on stocks that
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are just unbelievably oversold
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that all three are well capitalized and
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i think my number one pick is norwegian
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it has the youngest fleet it's going to
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increase their fleet more than 50
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percent from 2019 with new ships new
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ships drive the biggest demand everybody
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wants to go on the newest ships the new
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ships are more fuel efficient and
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cheaper to operate they offer more
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amenities and new features
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so i think that
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you will see a tremendous rebound over
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the next year in the shares of the crew
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of stocks and norwegian remains my
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number one pick
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i love this i love this discussion
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because it really is an optimistic one
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and we've seen a lot of people getting
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in and out of these names throughout
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this last since the pandemic began i
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mean these are heavily traded stocks one
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way or the other so with the norwegian
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for example at 10.88 cents a share how
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quickly because basically they're all at
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52 week lows there was so much
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excitement about this group right at one
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point but now worries so how quickly can
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it turn around and start to move to you
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know 20 bucks 30 bucks
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well it's hard to say what the timing
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will be because i mean we're all looking
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for a bottom in the market and there's
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just a lot of uh headwinds right now but
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i think for patient and long-term
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investors you got to be buying these
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stocks here and my number one pick is
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norwegian number two is royal then
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followed by carnival
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and i think that for patient investors
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they will be well rewarded
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right and you said even um that you feel
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that they have strong pricing and that
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this the spending that people are doing
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on board is good enough right with
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occupancy increases are you feeling the
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same way about hotels or airlines
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well yes because we still have this
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huge pent-up demand for travel and
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consumers shifting back to before the
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pandemic consumers were spending on
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experiences and travel during the
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pandemic when everybody was in lockdown
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consumers were spending on home
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furnishings and when you were sheltering
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in place they were fixing up their
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places and it shifted back
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now the consumers can go out and travel
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they are doing that
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the ceo of hilton said uh last month
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that
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hilton is
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booked in its highest level in the 104
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year history of the company
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and at ver at probably highest average
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uh room rates so
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people will tell you anytime you go to
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book a flight or book a hotel everybody
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is shocked about what it costs but
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people are still doing it because they
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they've been waiting so long and been
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saving for so long to go on a vacation
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that they want to go
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and they want to go and so less worried
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as you said people have less debt than
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they did pre pandemic so even if they're
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digging into the savings or using the
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credit cards they're still feeling
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better than before so what's the final
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takeaway on the market overall i mean
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when we see the s p today at 37.81 are
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you thinking that the entire market is
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oversold as well ivan
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yes i do i think first of all the market
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has been oversold
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on this over fear of inflation and this
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fear of a recession that i don't think
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will materialize or to lease the the
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fear that it will materialize i mean
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first we've gotta the biggest issue
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right now is oil prices i mean the the
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price of gasoline is taking its toll on
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the consumer and even if it's not on
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their pocketbook it's certainly on their
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mindset right now about spending so we
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need some some pullback in oil prices
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and i think we are starting to see that
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that's a positive
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but i think that
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the
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commodity prices oil prices and what has
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the fed has done so far and the
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tremendous increase in rates across the
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treasury yield curve i believe has done
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a lot of the work in slowing or will
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slow down the economy and the fed will
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not have to be as aggressive as a lot of
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people feel
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and i i don't think we will get to a
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three and a half percent fed funds rate
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by the end of the year
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i think we won't even break three
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percent i think the fed
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may go to two and a half to two and
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three quarters and then
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probably stay there for a while or even
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back off a tiny bit
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right so a pause or even back off a tiny
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bit so that they won't need to be as
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aggressive as they seem because right
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now they're front loading no doubt ivan
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feinstein nice to speak with you so
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saying that these cruise lines are
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oversold you had norwegian royal
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caribbean and carnival that you liked
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today ivan feinstein of tigris financial
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partners thanks ivan great to see you
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thanks have a great july 4th weekend
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you
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