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A Barbell Approach to Walk the Inflation-Recession Tightrope. - YouTube
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This is Satya Pradhuman of
Cirrus Research, I want to call
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your attention to the latest
Cirrus dispatch, it's our
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quarterly outlook report. The
title is a barbell approach to
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walk the inflation recession
tight rope in this past quarter,
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and in fact, year to date, we've
seen a very dramatic sell off in
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markets. Investors have truly
struggled with this idea of a
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ramp and pickup in inflation,
and most recently, and adversely
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the likelihood of an increasing
recession risk. In this report,
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we walked through a few of the
key items on how we would be
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positioned in this kind of a
marketplace. One, the profit
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cycles indeed peaking, that's
fairly clear. As a result, we
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are continuing to help to really
focus on higher quality firms,
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we think they will continue to
outperform, especially as the
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profit cycle continues to slow.
Part two is that this idea of
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risk aversion, it's quite
constructive for equity markets,
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we've seen a lot of our risk
appetite measures collapse to
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structural lows. The idea
though, and the risk that
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remains is that we feel that
this could continue to spread
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through to the larger cap names.
A lot of the damage done in the
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most speculative names have
taken place for over 18 months.
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More recently, we've begun to
see this rippled through to the
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larger mega cap shares. Next
point that we filed focus on,
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here's the earnings driven
market that we're in, that the
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fading forecast will continue to
be a good pointer for where
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markets are going. In short, we
continue to be cautious about
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the earnings environment, the
estimates have been ratcheted
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back, but they're far from
certain sort of a recession type
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low. And we think that's going
to be important to watch here.
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The other key points about
valuations, they have begun to
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contract from decade long highs,
the large cap multiples relative
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to small are incredibly
aggressive. So this is something
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that we're going to see if
there's more rate risk here. It
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certainly will continue to come
really a front the most sizable
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names. The second part is the
relative valuations as small,
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equity markets are rich. But
we're also looking at
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structurally discounted small
cap markets, no places that more
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dramatic than in the small cap
growth arena because of the
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small innovation stocks that
have broken. This chart here
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represents the gap the
performance gap between one
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proxy for innovation stocks
using the arc product, and the
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other, the blue line represents
the extended Fang. So what we're
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seeing is some correlation
between the two relationships.
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But clearly, we could see this
continue to narrow the gap
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continue to narrow down below,
it gives you a reality check on
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where the valuation gap is
really for the extreme small cap
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innovation names, they've really
come back trace back quite a bit
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from the peak of 15 times all
the way back down to four times.
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We continue as I say to
underscore the need for higher
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quality profits cycle than the
purple line, clearly it is
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peaking it is going to slow and
the blue line represents the
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forward estimates coming down.
That said these numbers could go
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quite a bit lower before the
market feels it's priced in the
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weakness at hand. And then
finally, how to put this to work
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we're using on the growth front
the quality growth to Garp
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related models why because of
everything we've seen the idea
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that you want more earnings
visibility and your stock
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selection effort and at the same
time, we want valuations to be
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reasonable because there is rate
risk down below on the value
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front similar ideas. The bottom
line here is that we continue to
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lean towards this quality
metric. Take a look at the
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report. Be happy to take any
questions and feel free to reach
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out to us. Thank you
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