馃攳
We are not quite at levels of full-on capitulation in financial markets yet, CIO says - YouTube
Channel: CNBC International TV
[0]
because it's the multi-trillion dollar
[2]
question everybody's trying to find out
[4]
look i i think um it was you jeff or
[6]
perhaps steve said that one trading
[8]
session in itself
[10]
it doesn't you know tell you a whole lot
[12]
obviously there's there's plenty of fear
[14]
in the markets there is a huge amount of
[18]
volatility uh i don't think we're quite
[20]
at levels of full-on capitulation yet
[24]
um at least by the measures that we
[25]
follow i don't think we're quite into
[27]
oversold territory right now there's
[29]
still a huge
[31]
behavioral bias towards buying the dip i
[34]
think to some degree
[36]
and let's not forget that we're still
[37]
not really in a bear market so um we
[41]
were overdue a correction
[43]
that's what it is does this get much
[45]
worse and enter into bear market
[47]
territory of course we don't know and
[49]
the picture is very mixed which is why
[51]
you know on the one hand you've got a
[53]
reasonably strong economic picture for
[55]
now
[56]
at least in terms of uh you know we're
[58]
not expecting a recession and earnings
[59]
are still positive on the other hand
[61]
plenty of of uh of momentum going
[64]
negative and and potential issues uh
[66]
with rate rises so it's a mixed picture
[69]
when we're neutrally positioned at the
[70]
moment um given all of those crosswinds
[74]
um just to throw out some stats so uh
[77]
our audience has a good understanding of
[79]
where we are the s p closed uh more than
[81]
17 percent from its 52-week high the
[84]
nasdaq ndx and russell 2k down more than
[87]
27 from their 52-week high
[90]
tech is more than 23 percent from its
[93]
52-week high
[95]
you say it's not a bear market it's
[97]
starting to sound
[99]
a little growly
[101]
yeah
[103]
certainly is and you know you're right i
[104]
mean global equities are give or take
[106]
about
[107]
16 17 down from their old time peak so
[110]
yes another you know four percent and
[112]
will tina technically be in that you
[115]
know full-on growl mode right if if
[117]
things are just getting rumbly now um
[121]
uh yeah and that that is the case like
[123]
obviously but you have to take put into
[125]
context right we've had a massive
[126]
massive rally um in the in the year and
[129]
a half preceding that and you know to
[131]
some degree we were overdue a correction
[134]
which is what it is right now does this
[136]
enter from bear market territory
[138]
obviously you know we don't know um but
[141]
there's plenty of reasons to think that
[143]
that you know things aren't as dire as
[146]
as the last few days and this year in
[149]
general would suggest one of them
[150]
obviously is that we still have a robust
[152]
economic paradigm if you want a job you
[155]
can get it if you want to raise money
[156]
you you can if you want to borrow money
[159]
or be it at slightly higher rates as as
[161]
steve mentioned 200 basis points
[163]
increase their mortgage fine but you
[164]
still can and those rates are still
[166]
historically low so there's plenty
[169]
there's plenty to hold your hat uh you
[171]
know to hang your hat on as far as the
[172]
global economic picture is concerned
[177]
i take your point on the pain threshold
[178]
for consumers and businesses as you talk
[180]
about being rational around these
[181]
markets but if you consider there are
[183]
parts of the market that are in bear
[185]
market territory and quite some
[187]
territory in terms of some of the
[188]
technology names and the fast-moving
[191]
stocks uh that were ipo'd in recent
[193]
years you can see that when you've got
[195]
big days to the upside some of these
[197]
names actually gather more momentum the
[199]
the buyers do return in uh somewhat of a
[202]
smaller fashion to these areas of the
[203]
market but on the downbeat days it's
[205]
quickly taken away again what do you
[207]
make of that are you saying that people
[208]
who go back into these beaten up areas
[210]
of the market are making a mistake at
[211]
this point
[213]
no i look i i wish i knew definitively
[216]
karen i mean we don't right um there are
[220]
clearly there's a lot of fear in the
[222]
markets and you know the the by the dip
[225]
mentality that we've had for a very long
[227]
time is is you know obviously there's
[230]
much more of a cell the rip
[232]
mentality in the in this last few weeks
[235]
and months okay
[236]
particularly in the last month or so
[238]
is that is that sort of just you know a
[241]
temporary phase and our you know are we
[243]
waiting for something to to hold our hat
[246]
on more definitively before we get a big
[248]
rally upwards obviously we we just we
[250]
just simply don't know i mean look on
[252]
the basis of our um investment uh
[255]
modeling we still think that the
[256]
economic regime is pretty good and if
[258]
you're a long-term investor um
[261]
you know the this is you know we're not
[263]
in a there's no recession it's not being
[265]
forecast so that's that's a good thing
[267]
on the other hand valuations are still
[269]
not cheap momentum is is quite
[272]
profoundly negative
[273]
and sentiment isn't quite at levels of
[276]
full-on capitulation yet um we're not
[279]
there yet where just people want to
[281]
stampede out of the exit no matter what
[283]
as you said there's still plenty of you
[285]
know smaller but still by the dip um
[288]
feelings out there at least in some
[289]
parts of the market we don't really know
[291]
where this goes from here right
[292]
obviously but as a result you know we're
[294]
new to the position we do think that
[296]
there is plenty of of you know economic
[299]
uh support um
[302]
still and that's that's a reason why we
[304]
haven't cut risk and are not sitting
[306]
completely on the sidelines because
[308]
there is you know there is enough there
[310]
um uh to be you know to be uh supported
[313]
by particularly in terms of of corporate
[315]
earnings as well hi i'm joanna burcetti
[318]
and thank you for watching you can check
[319]
out more of our videos by clicking on
[321]
the boxes on the screen and don't forget
[323]
to subscribe to our channel for more
[325]
from cnbc international thank you for
[327]
watching
Most Recent Videos:
You can go back to the homepage right here: Homepage