Will Cinema be HOT STOCKS? 🔥 (Cineworld AMC UK Recovery Stock 2021) - YouTube

Im a huge cinema buff - I was so disappointed  when the latest James Bond release was postponed  

because of covid. This week saw cinemas reopen  after a battering year so in this video I want to  

see if the UK cinema will recover and if so,  how as investors we can cash in on that rise? 

So movie theaters were dying but now as they  re-open, the sector seems quite uncertain. The  

Covid 19 pandemic and lockdowns have left  the biggest chains in cinema at the edge  

of becoming bankrupt with owner of Cineworld  and Odeon which is AMC Entertainment Holdings  

having to raise additional capital and  renegotiate debts to save itself from going bust. 

So I started looking at the AMC stock and was  surprised to see it has been quite resilient...The  

stock has been trending upward and that  rather large spike was caused by the short  

squeeze as AMC was a target for vloggers  and reditt forums... you can see my video  

here (Point up) which talks about AMC back then... What I really wanted to understand that if the  

stock which is showing positive conviction is  right, and if there is more upside which is  

still to be priced in... and I start to look  at myself and how we are behaving. Albeit, I  

am in a very different situation with two  toddlers and being able to escape to the  

cinema to watch a movie is well just impossible! So there are two main things to consider when  

thinking about cinemas and that relates to how  the market for consuming film has changed over  

the last year and before that too. The way I  think of the lockdown is that is has acted as  

an accelerant for certain industries that were  already in demise prior to the lock down and  

cinema I think is one of them. 1. Audiences have been shifting  

to streaming services for some time now and  Netflix, Amazon and the awesome Disney+ have  

been collecting audiences in bigger numbers and  can dictate production to suit their audiences.  

home streaming has been pulling audiences  from cinemas prior to the lock down and the  

lock down has just massively accelerated it. 2. Studios have what they call a window - this  

is the period of time a release is allowed  to run exclusive on cinema screens... this  

is before they are released for home video. The  majority of Hollywood studios have been cutting  

that 90 day period to shorter and shorter  periods before transitioning to home video.  

Some films - big budget - are just  going straight to home video too. 

The second one on the face of it might seem  something studios have always done - have  

lower quality or budget films or independent  films go straight to video... but no - this is  

different. With a lot of the major studios now  having their own streaming services - Paramount,  

Disney+ or Warner Bros and HBO Max there is  a rush to build an audience that creates the  

annuity revenues that subscribers pay. In order to  build those audiences, the streaming services need  

the best content available for subscribers...  taking Warner Bros as an example - there are  

plans to reduce the 90 day window from cinema  to home video by half to only 45 days... 

Now with that being said, there is generally  optimism in the market although it will take  

longer to get back into the steady state. I  was reading an article where the Phil Clapp  

who is the CEO for the UK Cinema Association  mentioned that he expects the industry to recover  

but for the rest of this year challenging Covid 19  protocols will dent box office takings - even with  

the success of the vaccine programs, consumers are  still nervous of returning... this was a similar  

sentiment with UK pubs opening this week. However, recent research has shown that  

audiences are missing the cinema.. there  was a research article posted by the Film  

Distributor's Association that cited ~60% of  people said they missed going to the cinema  

the most as an activity- it also showed  that the most avid streamers were big fans  

of the cinema and keen to return. Hmmmm. Thats all well and good but how do we back  

them up when thinking of whether to invest in  the cinema industry - well there are some nice  

case studies that we can refer to where lock downs  have eased and cinemas have re-opened in countries  

like Russia, China and Japan. Taking China as  an example, audiences have now grown beyond  

pre-pandemic levels showing that actually people  are going to the cinema more often than before 

Now my husband is a bit more on the streaming  band wagon - he is a bit of a homebody and so  

he was saying look Fifi, all these films are  coming straight to streaming... and look how  

bad Tenet did from Christopher Nolan when it  did go to Cinema. Yes, its true - there have  

been a few films which I have seen go straight to  netflix or prime - these being: Coming 2 America  

with Eddie Murphy - I loved the first one, child  of the 80s here... Mulan and the Trials of the  

Chicago 7. However, thats not true and the  VAST majority of films with blockbuster tags  

have been held back or pushed back by the studios  to take advantage and maximise revenues... this  

includes films like James Bond No Time to  Die, Top Gun Maverick, Avatar 2 and Mission  

Impossible 7. Similarly with Marvel having the  outlet of Disney+ which has been a roar in our  

house - there are four box office potential films  that seemingly will also be held back and this  

includes Black Widow, Shang-Chi and the Legend  of the Ten Rings, Eternals and Spider Man- No  

Way Home... at least for the next year and a half,  the cinema will be a super vibe fun place to be! 

Even with the shortened cinema exclusive  window - cinemas should have a lucrative  

run. The stats show that 90% of box office  take for a new release is made in the first  

four to five weeks which is great! Also, in  my dating years, cinemas were moving away  

from dingy sticky seats and carpets to much more  fun experiences with food, drink, better seats,  

sofas and so on... focusing on the experience is  where the edge in cinemas is... so we will always  

want to see the big blockbusters like James Bond  in the cinema... its what cinema is made for...  

and the cinema chains get it. Vue is spending  £60mn to improve sites with these facilities! Yay! 

So where is the opportunity for investors -  so from a UK perspective, the obvious stock  

is CINEWORLD which is still trading below its  long term average and March 2020 still had the  

majority of cinemas closed.. its maybe a good  time to now consider looking at this stock. My  

favourite chain is Everyman and I took at the  stock price and it has been trending up - 41.5%  

in the last six months but again below its long  term average - I talked about plush lush cinema  

experiences and Everyman is all about that so  it would be a good pick if we believe in cinemas  

moving in that direction which they obviously  are. The elephant in the room is of course AMC  

Entertainment - which is up 300% YTD - what  a ride... and probably some way to go but  

will be volatile given the interest from short  sellers and reditt forums so Im staying away. 

Now with lockdown easing, and people spending  money - us personal finance folk will  

notice inflation rearing its ugly head and so as  we move pass the one year anniversary of lockdown,  

and we start to see things generally  looking up, I really wanted to cover the  

three scenarios that are getting discussed  so much in our house which are linked to  

beating inflation in 2021... and you can click  here so I can take you through them. Ciao x