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2021 Spring/Summer Housing Market Predictions by Zillow, Redfin, NAR, & Home Builders Association - YouTube
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hey everybody terry the real estate guy
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thank you so much for tuning in today it
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means a lot that you value my opinion
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hey i got a this video is basically
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inspired by a washington post article i
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found that took all the big companies in
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real estate
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and asked their opinions about
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residential real estate and i thought
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those of you that are interested in
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investing in real estate buying real
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estate this year
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that you might find it helpful to know
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what these companies are thinking in
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2021.
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i'm going to jump in i'm going to cover
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what the article covered also going to
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link to it below
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if you find my content valuable you do
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me a favor subscribe to the channel and
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hit the like button
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so other people can find this video as
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well all right here we go let's jump in
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um national association of realtors they
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have a pretty famous economist maybe
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some of you have heard from him lawrence
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yoon
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lawrence yoon basically believes that
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there'll be 21 more houses
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sold this year than last 21 more new
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homes i'm sorry new homes new
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construction
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this year than last there's also going
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to be a 9
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increase in existing home sales 9
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increase
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in existing home sales and prices will
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likely rise by three percent
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in 2021 according to lawrence um
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affordability will be impacted
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uh by the fact that housing supply is
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still low and there's
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increased demand unit also believes that
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rates are going to level out around 3.1
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percent
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and yoon says if biden holds true to his
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campaign promise there might be
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a first-time home buyer tax credit out
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there and if that's the case
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that certainly would help make houses a
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little bit more affordable
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now yoon is known as a very conservative
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economist
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the national association of realtors if
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you don't know represents over a million
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real estate agents nationwide
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they collect data from almost every
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market in the country
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and they have very very valuable data
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and yoon
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is the guy people rely on to make
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decisions
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now let's think about a guy like
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lawrence yoon who's he talking to i'm
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sure he's talking to the heads of wells
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fargo and
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and bank of america and all these big
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banks i mean he is the inside track
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to the knowledge that people want to
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know okay let's talk about another
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big real estate company redfin if you've
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ever used their app it's a really cool
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app
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and they have an economist his name is
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daryl fairweather daryl
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fairweather basically believes that
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buyers are going to take advantage
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of low payments in spite of higher
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prices
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he thinks the payment is going to be
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more important than the price
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and as the pandemic fades we'll have the
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strongest housing market
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since 2006. he thinks that 10 percent
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more homes are going to sell this year
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than last 10
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but he also believes there will only be
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five percent
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more new listings this year than last so
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more people are going to put their house
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on the market
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because the values are an all-time high
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some of those people will sell and rent
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but yet still puts us in a deficit right
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if you sell
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if you sell 10 cases of this bottle
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all right 10 of the of 100 cases of this
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these bottles of water
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and you only replace it with 5 percent
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you still have a deficit of bottled
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water
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and that's the same thing in the housing
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market supply and demand now
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economic recovery he said will keep
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rates low and he thinks that
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rates will peak out around three percent
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fair weather also believes that suburban
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new construction
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will soar to its highest output since
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2006.
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what is suburban new construction that's
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outside of the urban core
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uh by december he thinks we'll have the
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highest homeownership rates we've had
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since 2005. and that is before the last
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great recession all right what about
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zillow
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zillow everybody seems to know zillow
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and use the zillow app i
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particularly like their mortgage app
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zillow says that cities will be back in
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vogue in 2021 he they think
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that cities will fuel a surge as the
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pandemic starts to fade
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and i i think they might be right zillow
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also predicts 21.9
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annual growth in home sales that's
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actually over twice that
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of the national association of realtors
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and redfin what do you guys think
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why don't you guys comment below what
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you think about zillow's claims of 21.9
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here's an interesting quote that zillow
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made in this article
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zillow foresees a perfect storm of
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market conditions that will create the
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hottest
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spring selling season in recent memory
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with sales happening quickly and often
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above list price
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many prospective homeowners will become
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certain about whether their jobs will be
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performed remotely long term
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which could add buyers to the market who
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had been waiting for that question to be
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settled
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rising mortgage rates could also add to
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the buyer frenzy zillow predicts that
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although dense urban living got a bad
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rep last year because the pandemic city
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living
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will almost certainly enjoy a
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renaissance in 2021
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and i believe that to be true as well
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what about new construction
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the national association of home
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builders or the national home builders
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association
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bill builders want to build is what
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they're saying but supply challenges are
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very challenging and expensive for a
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builder supply challenges of lumber
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which
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basically has tripled since last march
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windows basically all appliances
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hvac all have been strained due to
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factory shutting down during the
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pandemic
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2021 though will be the first year that
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there's over a million new housing
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starts
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since before the great recession new
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construction went down last year in the
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urban core about one percent
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and they're predicting they will go up
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about one percent
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outside the urban core so kind of a give
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and take there
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my take listen i think americans have
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short memories and i think they're going
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to jump right back into the cities
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because they're convenient
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especially if companies are going to
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require people to come back into the
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expensive
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offices that they invest and rent i do
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think commercial real estate will have
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high vacancy rates i do think commercial
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real estate could have some challenges
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but i do believe that there are some
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companies that are putting up with
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people working remotely they won't put
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up with that long term they want people
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back
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they want to create culture they know
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that people are communal beings
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and they're going to want that and i
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think a lot of people are going to want
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to flow back into the city and
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move right back into the urban core it
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doesn't seem like prices are going to
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come down anytime
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soon so if you want to wait it out my
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opinion is you're probably going to wait
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it out
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another 18 months before prices come
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down why is that
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today we have two months in some markets
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worth of supply
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in order to be a balanced market you
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have to have six
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a six month window is what most people
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consider a balanced market six months of
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inventory
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when you topple that six months and you
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go to eight months of inventory
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that's more of a buyer's market when you
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go below that it's more of a seller's
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market it can edge one way or the other
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and teeter-totter around but when you
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have two months of inventory in the
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marketplace
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you basically have a massive seller's
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market and will continue to do so
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until inventory starts to level out
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prices are going to stay firm
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except for maybe one crazy thing that
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could be thrown at you
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interest rates if interest rates start a
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precipitous climb
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higher two and a half three three and a
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half four you start hitting four percent
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interest rates all of a sudden i believe
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the housing market is going to have a
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little bit of a stall why
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because houses are way up here in price
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and now interest rates are creeping back
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up to a point
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you know that we would have considered
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an absolute bargain you know
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24 months ago but the bargain changes
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today versus then
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right so that is the key is trying to
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figure all that stuff out
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and i'm going to do a video for you guys
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because every i get asked all the time
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on this channel
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what is better buying a higher priced
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house with low rates versus buying a
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lower priced house
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with higher rates that can be refinanced
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so check back hopefully next week or the
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week after i'll have that one for you
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and it's going to lay it out it's going
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to show you the math exactly what is
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going to happen
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and answer that question for you all
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right so
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what do you think what do you think i
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want you to comment down below
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thank you for watching this if you find
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this content valuable listen the only
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way other people are going to help
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find it is if you hit that like button
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and you subscribe to the channel
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i'm terry the real estate guy thanks
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again for tuning in i appreciate you all
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have a great day
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