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Weekly Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, EURGBP, GBPCAD, XAUUSD (Sept. 30 - Oct. 4, 2019) - YouTube
Channel: Justin Bennett
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hi everyone and welcome to another
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weekly Forex forecast my name is justin
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bennett with daily price action and in
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today's forex forecast we're going to
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talk about the euro USD i'm gonna
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discuss the pound USD we're also gonna
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look at the euro versus the pound as
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well as the pound against the canadian
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dollar i'm going to show you what the
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pound needs to do against the canadian
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dollar in order to see a reversal higher
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this week and last but not least we're
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going to talk about what gold sell off
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from 1536 means for the metal and why it
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could be heading lower this week so
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you're going to want to stay tuned we're
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gonna do all that right now
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[Music]
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[Applause]
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before we get started be sure to hit the
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subscribe button below and also click
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the bell icon so you get notified every
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time I post these videos starting with
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the Euro USD you can see that the pair
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is resting right on key support to start
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the new week so we have the 109 30 level
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which acted as support on this candle as
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well as this candle and I wrote about
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this one last week and even did a video
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and I also pointed out this longer
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descending channel that extends back
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here to 2018 so notice that we have this
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candle back here as well as this candle
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here now as of last week the pear is
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bouncing right from that level in fact
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last week's video I even said that 109
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would likely serve as support and
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Friday's candle was actually four pips
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above 109 so sure enough the pear did
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bounce on Friday and it even closed back
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above that 109 30 level so again 109 30
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actually it's 109 26 is the exact price
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but 109 3109 26 was support on these two
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candles and notice how Thursday session
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closed below that level but then Friday
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closed back above it so now the question
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is do buyers come in here this week and
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support the euro USD above that 109 26
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109 30 level to find out we're gonna
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have to watch how the Euro reacts to
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that 109 to 109 30 area if we see buyers
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step in and support the pair from here
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and we start to see that move higher and
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take out Friday's high followed by
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Thursday's high we could see another run
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up here to 109 90 so I mentioned this
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one a couple a couple times last week as
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well you can see that we have candles
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through here where it acted as support
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and then Wednesday's candle closed below
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it so if we do see move higher this week
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I do expect sellers to come out around
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109 90 with the close above that
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targeting this descending channel top up
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here around 110 30 maybe 110 40 now if
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we do see the euro/usd take out that 109
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area we could see the pair trend lower
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toward 108 50 so I mentioned this one in
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last week's video it
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a key factor back in 2017 and I do think
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that if the euro/usd tests it over the
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coming weeks that it will attract buyers
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but again I think that sellers have to
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be careful here as long as this 2018
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channel support is intact around 109
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because I do think we're gonna see just
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like Friday we could see bounces around
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this region and last but not least I had
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a few of you asking why I was trying to
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buy the Euro last week in other words
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why I was bullish that euro and the fact
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is I'm not bullish the Euro in fact
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longer term I am bearish and I have to
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be based on what's happened here over
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the last couple of years so we have this
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longer-term downtrend that is still
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intact we had this aggressive sell-off
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back here and then we've sort of chopped
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sideways for quite some time however the
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trend is still bearish but just like I
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mentioned a couple weeks ago as long as
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this broader dissenting channel is
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intact I have to respect the potential
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for a bounce higher from that 109 area
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and even if we do get a break below 109
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and test 108 50 I still have to respect
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the potential for a move higher before
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the next leg lower can begin and again
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it's just based on this price action
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that we've seen now for the last year or
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two and that doesn't necessarily mean
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that I'm bullish the euro or that I'm
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buying the pair but I do have to respect
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the price action that's in front of me
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next up we have the British Pound versus
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the US dollar or the gbp/usd and this
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one's interesting because it is sitting
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that key support to start the new week
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so this 120 to 90 level I've mentioned a
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couple of times recently you can see how
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it acted as support following that
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September 4th breakout and I talked
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about this candle right here on the blog
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and I said that this 123 80 area was our
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first target the second target was 125
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70 so both of those have been reached
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and since then we can see that the pound
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has come off of those quite aggressively
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now this 120 to 90 area needs to hold
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that support in order for buyers to have
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a chance this week if we see the pair
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start to close below it
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then I do think I moved down here to 120
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170 notice these highs through this
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region this area could become a factor
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if we see a close below 120 to 90 now on
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the other hand if we see bullish price
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action form from 120 to 90 so in other
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words let's say we get a bullish pin bar
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at some point this week then I do think
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we could see a return to 123 80 and
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perhaps even a run at 125 70 again but
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remember that the gbp/usd would need to
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get above 120 380 so we would need to
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see a daily close above this area in
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order to see a return to 1 and 25 70 so
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it's all gonna come down to what happens
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here at 120 290 this week and as of
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right now it's a tough call because we
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don't have bullish price action and the
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pair did close right at 120 290 maybe
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even a few pips below it
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lastly you all know how I love to use
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channels and I do think that there is a
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short-term ascending channel here that
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could become a factor so if I take my
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channel tool and draw from these highs
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through this area and I drag that level
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lower from this swing load down here
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okay so I've got these highs through
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this region as well as this high up here
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and I'm connecting it with this low down
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here now this area through here around
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120 240 could become a factor this week
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so let's say on Monday or Tuesday we get
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a drop on intraday drop down here into
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120 240 I do think that buyers could
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come in here and support the pair and
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that's just based again on this
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short-term ascending channel now there's
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no guarantee that will happen but it is
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something I'm keeping an eye on and as
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long as the pair stays above 120 to 90
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on a daily closing basis I think that we
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still have to respect the potential for
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another run higher now that's not to say
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it will happen but I do think there is
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the potential for it alternatively a
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daily closed below 120 240 so below this
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channel support would expose again that
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120 170 area and a close below that
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would expose these two lows back here
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around that one 2015 region I've written
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about the euro versus the pound a few
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times over the last few weeks and the
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first one was about three weeks ago when
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I noted this potential topping pattern
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back here and you should watch last
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week's video in order to get an idea of
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why I thought the pear was topping out
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there and our target for that run was
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actually 89 20 so our target was through
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this area based on this low here this
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low as well as these highs and that
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target was reached back here which we
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got short just below this 9180 region
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however if you recall from last week's
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video when the pair was trading in this
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region down here I mentioned that I did
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not want to sell the pair because of
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this short term descending channel and
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the fact that the Euro Pound had been
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sliding just above that level so I felt
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that any downside was limited there and
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notice how that Friday candle was never
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taken out last week so the pair started
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to carve these higher lows followed by
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higher highs and I also wrote last week
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that a retest of this 89 20 confluence
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of resistance up here was likely and if
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the pair got above 88 40 then a run at
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this 89 20 was even more likely and
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you'll notice that that did happen so
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for the coming week I'm gonna be keeping
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a close eye on 89 20 and what happens in
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this area so notice we have a confluence
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of resistance which is this descending
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channel top as well as these lows back
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here so remember that this was our
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target when we were getting short up in
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this region so I do think that any
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bearish price action from 89 20 could
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provide an opportunity to get short form
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move back down to 88 40 and perhaps down
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here to 87 60 so that's what I'm
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watching for this week now if we do get
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a daily close above 80 9 20 then I do
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think the short idea is negated
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and it would expose ninety 15 so notice
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that we also have lows through this area
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as well as some highs so based on
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Friday's aggressive rally relatively
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aggressive rally I would be inclined to
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kind of stand aside and watch what
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happens here if we do get bearish price
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action I'll look to short the pair
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however I'm not in a hurry to sell the
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Euro Pound again because Friday's rally
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was relatively aggressive but regardless
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I do think that the Euro Pound is one to
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keep an eye on because whether or not we
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get bearish price action from eighty
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nine twenty okay so we get a bearish
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price action and a move back down to
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eighty eight forty perhaps eighty seven
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sixty or we get a daily close above this
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area in a return to eighty nine twenty
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as new support there's going to be an
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opportunity here I think either way so
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either we get a daily close above it for
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a move higher or we get bearish price
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action from that area for another leg
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lower but either way I think the Euro
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Pound could provide an opportunity this
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week so it's one I'm certainly going to
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keep on my watch list next up we have
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the British Pound versus the Canadian
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dollar this is one that I mentioned when
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the pair was trading through this region
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so notice the consolidation that
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occurred right below this neckline and I
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wrote about this one back when the pair
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was trading through here noting that it
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was close to a breakout and the reason I
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thought that is because of these higher
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lows in to this neckline resistance and
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sure enough we got this massive rally
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now the pair did top out around 166
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maybe 160 610 and that was another level
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that we did have our eye on so notice
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this bearish rejection candle right here
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and this hinted at a pullback into one
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sixty four thirty and we got that and we
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also had a daily closed below it on
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Wednesday that exposed this neckline as
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support once again so in case you missed
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the forecast from a couple weeks ago
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what we were watching was this left
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shoulder the head right here and the
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right shoulder so this is still an
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inverse Head & Shoulders pattern
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as of right now but that 162 50 area so
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right where Friday closed that needs to
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hold as support if buyers can't hold
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this and the pair starts to close below
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it we could see another run at these
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lows through this area but if we do see
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bullish price action or a pop higher
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this week I think that we could see a
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return to 164 30 and perhaps 166 but
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again it's all going to depend on what
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happens around 160 to 50 as for what I'm
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doing here I think the best approach to
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the pound against the Canadian dollar is
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to stand aside and see what happens
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around that 160 to 50 if on Monday or
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Tuesday we were to get a bullish pin bar
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of some sort then I do think that could
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provide a favorable buying opportunity
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back to 60 for 30 but again based on the
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way this thing is pulled back look at
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how aggressive this pull back has been I
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do think right now
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sellers are in control so until I see a
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sign that buyers are ready to take over
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I'm gonna go ahead and stand aside
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because there is always the chance that
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we get a close below that neckline
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furthermore don't forget that the GBP
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CAD is still in this longer-term
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downtrend so longer term the pair is
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still making lower highs and lower lows
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so this formation that we're looking at
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right here is actually a short-term
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pattern so even though this may provide
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another move up to 64 30 perhaps 60 600
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and maybe even the objective up here at
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68 this entire pattern is still a
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short-term formation so the longer-term
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trend here is lower so keep that in mind
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as well last but not least we have gold
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or XA you USD this one so far has played
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out perfectly for us so I wrote about
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this in verse head and shoulders and
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also included it in last week's video
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and what we were watching for on Tuesday
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was a rejection from 15 30/40 so this
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sell-off actually occurred right in the
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middle of that area and there are a
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couple reasons I was looking for a
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rejection from the 15 30/40 area so if I
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move out to the weekly timeframe
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you'll notice that this bearish
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engulfing candle right here the 50% of
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that candle actually came in right
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around 15 20 maybe 15 30 so right
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through here
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notice where the 60 1.8 is though that
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is the exact high of that rejection that
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we saw last week so that was at 1536 so
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that's why I was watching for a
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rejection from 15 30/40 so we got that
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rejection and we're also now sitting
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just above that neckline support so on
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Friday we saw gold bounce right from
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1490 and that's the level that I
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mentioned in last week's video so notice
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that we have this low right here as well
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as several lows through here that make
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up that neckline support now as long as
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last week's high at 1536 is intact I
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favor and move lower and that's because
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we still have this Head & Shoulders
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reversal pattern that's playing out so
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if we see a close below the neckline
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support it's going to expose that 1450
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area that I mentioned last week and
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again the objective here is still 14 10
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so in last week's video I mentioned why
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this was so significant and that's
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because of these lows through this area
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the other reason that 14 10 is so
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significant is again back to the
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Fibonacci tool this is the year to date
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range so this low back in here to this
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high this is the year to date range and
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notice how the Fibonacci levels line up
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with our key levels so 38.2 lines up
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perfectly with 1450 and that 50%
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retracement which we know markets love
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the test is around 1410 even sixty one
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point eight lines up pretty close with
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these lows through this region so again
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I do think that if sellers can get
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through this neckline support up here
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around 14 85 maybe 14 90 if they can
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close up below this level we could see a
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run down toward
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14:50 with a break they're targeting
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that objective around 1410 however if we
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do see a bounce higher this week because
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remember anything is possible if we do
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see buyers take out last week's high
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around 1536 then this pattern would be
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negated but as of right now as long as
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that high of 1536 is intact I do favor a
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move lower from gold as long as sellers
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can break that neckline this week if you
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enjoyed this video give it a thumbs up
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leave your comment below and be sure to
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subscribe to my channel see you next
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time
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