馃攳
Why we are in a BULL RUN and why this might be your LAST CHANCE to invest big... - YouTube
Channel: unknown
[0]
hi everyone welcome to today's video so
[2]
on today's video i am going to talk
[3]
about why i feel that we are in the
[6]
early stages of a bull run this is a
[8]
very important macroeconomics video i am
[10]
going to teach you some of the key
[11]
macroeconomic concepts as well so this
[14]
is going to be a slightly dense video
[16]
but just to kick things off here are
[17]
three images that i will show you so the
[19]
first image comes from yesterday's video
[21]
which is about mr rakesh indianwala's
[23]
portfolio what you will see is that back
[25]
in mid of 2021 his portfolio size was
[28]
roughly 16 000 crore now it is close to
[31]
32 000 crore in case you have not
[33]
watched that video i have done a
[34]
complete analysis please go and watch it
[36]
here people have said really excellent
[38]
things about the video now let me go to
[39]
second investor this is about mr warren
[42]
buffett so mr warren buffett has also
[44]
been aggressively purchasing stocks for
[46]
example this data tells you that he has
[48]
been investing quite aggressively from
[50]
the end or last quarter of 2021 and even
[53]
in the first quarter of 2022 he has been
[55]
spending quite aggressively in terms of
[57]
buying equities now let me take you to
[59]
investor number three who is the image
[61]
of pessimism because if you open any of
[63]
his tweets
[64]
his commentary is that hey everything is
[66]
going to fall apart if news people want
[68]
to call someone to outline doomsday
[70]
scenario then they call whom this is mr
[72]
michael very so he runs a fund called as
[74]
kion asset management company and again
[77]
you can see that he has been buying
[78]
quite aggressively for example he has
[80]
added huge positions in a stock like
[82]
apple he has added huge positions in
[85]
other tech companies so he has been
[86]
buying quite aggressively and if you see
[89]
this data you will clearly see that he
[90]
has three times for example his prior
[92]
market value was roughly 74 million and
[95]
right now his position in the market is
[97]
roughly 200 million so the point that
[99]
i'm trying to tell you from this simple
[101]
story is that indian investors are
[103]
investing quite aggressively u.s
[105]
investors are investing quite
[107]
aggressively even pessimistic investors
[109]
are investing quite aggressively and
[111]
that is one of the reasons why i have
[112]
been making videos for the last six
[114]
months saying that i'm buying every day
[116]
i'm buying every day and i will continue
[118]
to invest now this does not mean that
[120]
the markets are not going to fall they
[122]
very well might fall five percent by
[123]
tomorrow i don't know but at least in a
[125]
mid-term scenario there is no macro
[127]
economic indicator that is telling us
[129]
that the markets should be falling now
[131]
you will say that akshay you are talking
[132]
nonsense because i have read so many
[134]
economist viewpoint that we are in a
[136]
recession india is not growing at a fast
[138]
rate there is china taiwan issue that is
[140]
going on u.s economy is faltering uk
[143]
inflation is very high what not what
[145]
about those issues okay so i'm going to
[147]
talk about these topics from a
[148]
macroeconomic perspective you will
[150]
understand a lot of macro topics
[151]
associated with the stock market so
[153]
please press the like button if you like
[155]
that and also many of you have been
[157]
asking that how do we buy us stocks
[159]
because mr warren buffett is purchasing
[161]
a lot of tech companies even mr michael
[163]
bury is purchasing a lot of companies so
[165]
how do we do that by sitting in india so
[167]
for that you can check out west ed it's
[169]
a wonderful platform for considering u.s
[171]
stock investing i have presented a pro
[173]
and con analysis of investing maya
[175]
vested so you can check the links in the
[176]
description box so let me now talk about
[178]
why i feel that we are in the early
[180]
stages of a bull run and for this i will
[182]
talk about three specific macro
[184]
indicators so the first macro economic
[186]
indicator is inflation now i'm not going
[188]
to bore you with usual stuff about
[190]
inflation that hey what exactly
[191]
inflation is that it is the rise of
[193]
price and goods and services is that or
[195]
what moves around the inflation all this
[196]
is highly academic stuff what you need
[198]
to understand as a stock market investor
[201]
is not inflation but the expectation of
[203]
inflation that is the important
[205]
difference between being a macro
[206]
economist and investing your own money
[209]
in the stock market so what do i mean by
[211]
expectation of inflation so that number
[213]
is more important compared to what
[214]
inflation actually is so here is a very
[216]
quick explanation about that that the
[218]
stock market is a forward-looking
[220]
creature what do i mean by that i simply
[222]
mean that what the stock price right now
[224]
is or what the overall market sentiments
[226]
right now is is a reflection of what
[229]
people are expecting six months from now
[231]
will happen in the world so let me
[232]
explain that to you in very simple
[234]
language so basically stock market is a
[236]
forward-looking creature now what is
[238]
meant by forward-looking creatures so
[239]
let me help you understand that by
[241]
picking a very simple example so let's
[243]
say that itc on 10th of august 2022 is
[246]
trading at 310 rupees now what does this
[249]
310 rupees indicate it indicates the
[252]
present value of future cash flows i
[254]
have spoken about that concept multiple
[256]
times so let me know in the comment box
[257]
what present value of future cash flow
[259]
means the important word to notice the
[261]
future cash flows basically people are
[264]
expecting a certain performance from itc
[266]
six months from now or three months from
[268]
now maybe a year from now and
[270]
accordingly they are valuing itc as of
[272]
now and this is the key concept that you
[274]
need to understand that whether you look
[276]
at individual stock prices or the
[278]
overall nifty whatever price is being
[280]
indicated today it is an expectation of
[282]
what is going to happen with this
[284]
particular stock or this particular
[286]
market in the future so this is the most
[288]
critical concept that you need to
[290]
understand and therefore the expected
[292]
inflation is a much more important data
[294]
point compared to overall inflation that
[296]
currently exists in the indian economy
[299]
or in the world economy now if you're a
[301]
stock market investor you should not be
[302]
tracking inflation you should be
[304]
tracking expected inflation data so let
[306]
me take you to the chart and let me show
[307]
you some key data around it so for
[309]
example let's go back to 2008 crisis so
[312]
what you will see is that the expected
[314]
inflation just before the crisis was
[316]
around 2.19
[318]
now when the crisis happened in 2008 you
[320]
can see that the expected inflation fell
[323]
to one point seven three percent from
[324]
two percent now why two percent is such
[326]
an important number because that is the
[328]
targeted rate in the us that the u.s
[330]
government wants to keep inflation or
[332]
general price rise in the economy close
[334]
to two percent but when a crisis happen
[337]
for example 2008 crisis happened or 2020
[340]
crisis happened then what happens during
[342]
that time everyone start expecting that
[344]
hey the global economy is slowing down
[346]
there will be less trading of goods and
[348]
services the economic recession might
[350]
come so everyone starts spending less so
[353]
when everyone starts spending less the
[355]
companies do not want to produce much
[356]
then what is the expectation during a
[358]
crisis the expectation is that hey the
[360]
priciness in the economy is going to
[362]
come down and therefore you will see
[364]
that in 2008 crisis the expectation
[366]
inflation fell first and same thing
[368]
happened in 2020 also that the expected
[371]
inflation fell to 1.27 percent now if
[374]
the expected inflation is very less that
[377]
is step one when the crisis happens then
[379]
comes step 2 the step 2 is that the
[381]
government prints a lot of money now the
[383]
moment the government prints a lot of
[384]
money what happens then then everyone
[386]
starts expecting that you know what a
[388]
stimulus package has been announced the
[390]
trillions of dollars are now being
[391]
flooded through the economy then people
[393]
will start spending money more
[395]
businesses will start expanding their
[396]
capacity etc etc what will happen to
[399]
expected inflation it will go up the
[401]
same thing happened in 2020 that when
[403]
the first stimulus package was announced
[405]
and then successive stimulus packages
[407]
were announced the inflation expectation
[409]
kept going up so you can see this number
[411]
rising from roughly 1.16 percent all the
[414]
way to roughly 2.4 so now you can
[417]
clearly see that when the inflation has
[418]
speed it has to come down at some point
[421]
and for this what the government does it
[422]
does something called as quantitative
[424]
easing so it pulls out money from the
[426]
economy for example that right now the
[428]
indian government is raising rates the
[430]
u.s government is aggressively raising
[432]
rates now what is meant by raising rates
[434]
for example if the rate of home loans or
[436]
car loans gets increased then it is very
[438]
unlikely that you are going to take that
[440]
loan why because it becomes expensive to
[442]
take it so therefore less money will
[444]
flow through the economy and now why is
[446]
this entire dance being done it is being
[448]
done so that the expected inflation also
[451]
comes down with time so now comes the
[453]
final and the most important point that
[455]
is the expected inflation going down now
[458]
or is it rising because this is a
[460]
forward-looking number so you can
[461]
categorically see that the expected
[463]
inflation peaked somewhere here and now
[466]
it has started to finally come down and
[468]
this is a great sign for stock market
[470]
investors because this means that the
[472]
expected inflation has already peaked
[474]
and whatever measures the governments
[476]
all across the world are taking they are
[478]
winning at that effort now now
[480]
governments do not get enough praise but
[482]
we have to acknowledge the fact that now
[484]
they are fighting really well with
[485]
inflation you will not see media
[487]
agencies giving credit to the government
[489]
but the macroeconomic data categorically
[491]
tells us that the governments are now
[494]
able to handle the inflation situation
[495]
really well from an investment
[497]
perspective now this is also outlined by
[499]
the latest inflation report that came
[501]
out in the u.s in the first week of
[502]
august and there again it has been
[504]
categorically mentioned that the
[506]
inflation is coming now now the second
[508]
macroeconomic indicator is called as the
[510]
yield curve inversion you might have
[511]
recently read about it in the news also
[513]
that hey the yield curve is going to get
[515]
inverted and it is a sign that the
[517]
recession is coming so is that data
[519]
correct the answer is 100
[521]
that whenever the yield curve inversion
[523]
has taken place recession follows so
[525]
there is no doubt about that and i am
[527]
not trying to dispel that fact but to
[529]
help you break down this macroeconomic
[531]
indicator more let me quickly explain
[533]
what yield curve inversion actually
[534]
means so in easy to understand language
[537]
this is what happens for example there
[539]
are different different types of bonds
[540]
with differing maturity for example in
[543]
the us you might have heard that in the
[544]
us there is a 10-year maturity bond
[546]
similarly there are two year three year
[548]
different maturity bonds now what is the
[551]
difference on what is meant by maturity
[552]
it is like doing a fixed deposit for
[554]
example if you do a fixed deposit in
[556]
hdfc bank and the bank people say that
[558]
hey please do your fixed deposit for 10
[560]
years and we are going to offer you an
[562]
eight percent yield but on the flip side
[564]
if you just do a two year or three year
[565]
fixed deposit then we are only going to
[567]
offer you a six percent rate of interest
[569]
so hypothetically these are the type of
[571]
rates and usually what happens is that
[573]
for a long term bond the returns are
[575]
higher or are supposed to be higher
[577]
compared to a short term bond this is a
[579]
very very important concept now yield
[582]
curve inversion happens when the returns
[584]
on these short-term bonds it actually
[586]
starts beating the returns that you will
[587]
make from long-term bonds and whenever
[590]
that stage arises it is called as yield
[592]
curve inversion why does that happen
[594]
because in the short term what do feds
[596]
want to do they want to do quantitative
[598]
tightening how do they do quantitative
[600]
tightening they do quantitative
[601]
tightening by increasing the interest
[603]
rate in the short term so therefore the
[605]
short term yield temporarily goes up
[607]
compared to long term yields and that is
[609]
when yield curve inversion happens and
[611]
it's a great indicator that a recession
[613]
is going to happen now is that something
[615]
that is happening in the economy right
[616]
now not happening so for that let me
[618]
take you to the indicator itself so here
[620]
they have taken the short term yield as
[622]
three month spread and here they are
[623]
considering ten years minus three month
[625]
spread and this is indicated on the
[626]
graph now what you will see is that
[628]
there is always a sharp fall after a
[631]
crisis this is the 2008 crisis right and
[634]
then there is a sudden increase a very
[636]
sharp increase and it goes up it kind of
[638]
makes a peak something very similar
[639]
happened in the 2000 crash also that hey
[642]
it fell down it made a peak now it has
[645]
fallen down quite aggressively and it
[647]
has started to make a very good peak
[648]
here so this indicates that even this
[651]
yield curve inversion concerns are not
[653]
derailing the market per se so then
[655]
comes the natural question that okay if
[657]
there is like such high recession
[658]
concerns in the economy the yield curve
[661]
inversion people have already talked
[662]
about that it has hit then why is it
[664]
that the markets are not falling because
[666]
the recession is also imminent yes that
[668]
is the precise reason the markets are
[670]
not falling because everyone expects now
[672]
that a recession will be there yield
[674]
there inversion has already happened the
[675]
feds are increasing the rates very fast
[677]
they might do like five fed increases so
[679]
nothing is derailing the market because
[681]
why because all these things have been
[683]
factored into the economy already the
[686]
macroeconomic indicators are improving
[688]
and that is the reason why these big big
[690]
investors are pouring in their own money
[692]
they are not here to make very quick
[693]
flipping gains that you know what let's
[695]
book like 10 percent profit on a
[696]
particular stock and move away if people
[698]
like mr zhunyanwala mr warren buffett
[700]
are putting in their own money in such
[702]
high numbers and are increasing their
[704]
stakes in the market then it is pretty
[706]
much given that the macroeconomic
[708]
indicators are somewhat aligning now the
[710]
data is also telling us the same so to
[712]
finally prove this point let me show you
[713]
one more piece of data this data comes
[715]
from bank of england and they are saying
[717]
that hey there has been the biggest rate
[719]
hike in the 27 years
[721]
predicts lengthy recession and this date
[723]
was 4th of august now you tell me how
[725]
much the markets have fallen by in india
[727]
or in the us after this news has come in
[730]
okay not by much so therefore my
[732]
hypothesis is that we are very close to
[734]
recovery but again a very quick
[735]
disclaimer that does not mean that the
[737]
market cannot fall by five ten percent
[739]
tomorrow five seven percent fall can
[740]
happen anytime for any reason so please
[743]
do not judge it from immediate very
[744]
narrow short term lengths please look at
[746]
a midi term perspective at least from a
[748]
midi term perspective the markets look
[750]
very good now let me also present the
[752]
pessimistic scenario associated with the
[754]
recovery now there is a very good piece
[756]
that was done by dr rajan he has written
[758]
a research paper on it so i will link it
[760]
in the comment box so you can go and
[762]
read that paper from him but there are a
[763]
few salient points that i want to
[765]
outline from this paper so the first key
[767]
snippet and you can pause the video and
[769]
read it through here and i will explain
[771]
some of the key points from this
[772]
particular page so this is something
[774]
that i spoke about on yesterday's video
[776]
also so people at the base of the
[777]
pyramid are going to suffer the most and
[779]
the worst part is that they are going to
[781]
have at least a mid-term impact on their
[783]
earning potential why is that the case
[785]
because many kids have dropped out many
[787]
low income families have wound up their
[789]
businesses it would take them years to
[791]
recover from this coveted pandemic that
[793]
has already ravaged economies this will
[795]
translate to developed countries also
[797]
this is what the hypothesis of dr aguram
[800]
rajan is and i also completely agree
[802]
with it what can solve this issue is
[804]
that if the world undertakes a
[806]
productivity improvement for example if
[808]
the world comes together we start
[810]
producing things more effectively from
[812]
india if we can undertake the export of
[814]
services similarly countries that are
[816]
efficient in producing certain raw
[818]
material etc they should be doing this
[820]
in economics this is called as ricardo's
[822]
comparative advantage theory what in
[824]
simple terms it means is that for
[825]
example if i am good at making youtube
[827]
videos then that is the only job that i
[830]
should be doing if you for example are
[832]
very good at producing mangoes then you
[834]
should be producing only mangoes why
[836]
because when every individual person
[838]
does his or her work perfectly or very
[840]
very efficiently to their best
[841]
capabilities on a certain task that is
[844]
when the world progresses so please go
[846]
read about this concept this is a very
[847]
interesting concept but to cut the long
[849]
story short what dr rajan is saying that
[851]
the productivity improvement needs to
[852]
happen in the world and for that the
[854]
world needs to come together to learn
[856]
more about this you can read this part
[858]
of the paper and if you combine part one
[860]
and two here are the primary concerns
[861]
that emerge first and foremost the
[863]
resilience in the world right now is
[865]
very less if there is one more massive
[868]
crisis that the world will have to go
[869]
through the governments might not have
[871]
the fiscal capacity to deal with these
[873]
type of crisis so this is risk number
[875]
one second key point which comes to
[877]
ricardo's competitive advantage that it
[880]
is very difficult for the world to
[882]
combine together in fact if you look at
[884]
it from a macro lens there is more and
[886]
more war and halla that is being created
[887]
that china russia is fighting with u.s
[889]
china is fighting with taiwan so many
[891]
countries are going bankrupt so it is
[893]
very unlikely that all these countries
[895]
are going to come together and work on a
[897]
particular plan that can increase the
[899]
productivity of the world on top of that
[901]
there is an emerging crisis in china
[903]
taiwan now according to me this is not
[905]
that big a deal and i will present two
[907]
data points here so the first one is
[909]
regarding the taiwan's contribution of
[911]
gdp to the world so you can see that
[913]
this is less than point six percent so
[915]
taiwan's contribution to world gtp is
[917]
very very less many people commented on
[919]
some of my last few videos that hey
[921]
taiwan is a very big producer of
[923]
semiconductors and if it stops
[925]
manufacturing chips then the world will
[927]
go bunkers etc etc now i am saying this
[930]
purely from a macroeconomic perspective
[931]
not a humanitarian perspective that
[934]
information is not completely true i
[936]
will make a separate video on that but
[938]
here is a very quick snippet about it
[939]
that in taiwan majority of the chips are
[942]
produced by one single company and you
[944]
can check the data here that this is the
[946]
biggest manufacturer in taiwan and in
[948]
the world no doubt about that but now
[950]
ask yourself a question that why is it
[952]
that this company is producing so many
[954]
chips the answer is that this company
[956]
has long term contracts from a bunch of
[958]
fortune 500 companies like apple samsung
[960]
etc etc so therefore they have already
[963]
built their capacity and they are no
[965]
doubt a very important manufacturer of
[967]
chips but that does not mean that if
[969]
taiwan stops exporting chips then no
[972]
other country can fill the world there
[973]
are ample number of countries that can
[975]
pick up the slug and that is the reason
[977]
why i feel that the china taiwan issue
[979]
at least from a stock market perspective
[981]
it will not aggravate the market too
[982]
much now the biggest concern for me
[984]
personally is that one there are a lot
[986]
of issues between us and china that can
[989]
put the economic growth on hold it's not
[991]
as if that these two countries will stop
[993]
trading with each other etc but in order
[996]
for the bull run to take full effect
[997]
that both china and us should be focused
[1000]
on growing their own economies rather
[1002]
than fighting proxy wars so this is the
[1003]
first key challenge for growth that i
[1005]
personally see the second key challenge
[1007]
for growth comes from emerging economies
[1009]
like india so i will keep this
[1010]
discussion relevant to india that in
[1013]
india what is happening is that our
[1014]
growth rate is slowing down so imf has
[1017]
also cut its forecast of growth in india
[1019]
this is largely because of the fact that
[1021]
india had to jack up the interest rate
[1023]
very very quickly do that quantitative
[1025]
easing hopefully now we would not have
[1027]
to go through that exercise again and we
[1029]
would be on the path to recovery but
[1031]
already a lot of damage in terms of
[1033]
accelerated growth rate in india has
[1035]
happened so that kind of pulls back the
[1037]
growth scenario but the overall
[1039]
impressions are that the macroeconomic
[1040]
data the way the world is recovering the
[1043]
challenges that lie ahead will always be
[1045]
there no doubt about that there will be
[1047]
some kind of prices that the world will
[1048]
have to go through but overall the
[1050]
situation looks promising and this might
[1052]
be your last chance of identifying
[1054]
undervalued stocks if you are doing
[1056]
direct stock investing or investing in
[1058]
slightly bulk amounts in terms of
[1060]
whatever positioning you are considering
[1061]
taking let me know in the comment box
[1063]
that which investment assets you are
[1065]
looking to invest your money in i will
[1066]
keep on making more videos thank you so
[1068]
much and i will see you soon
[1089]
you
Most Recent Videos:
You can go back to the homepage right here: Homepage