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Betfair trading | The most effective way to trade | Cold trading / Trading order flow - YouTube
Channel: Bet Angel
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so there's a great way of profiting from
trading on Betfair but it's unintuitive
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people generally get confused by it and
most people do it wrong but it's the
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method that I've used over many years
and I just thought it was worth doing a
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video to explain specifically how I
trade and that's what I'm going to talk
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about in this video please like and
comment on the video below that will
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allow me to produce better quality
videos and more of them in the future if
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you're interested in learning to trade
successfully in sports then why not
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visit the BET angel' Academy where we
have more detailed videos so the trick
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to trading very effectively on that fair
is order flow I trade order flow and you
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know what is order flow how does it
influence what you do and why is it
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slightly counterintuitive well the
interesting thing about my journey
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through Betfair is that when I arrived
on the racing markets I didn't know
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anything about racing so I looked to the
markets and it was a complete mystery to
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me Maiden sellers handicaps different
grades of races different courses I had
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no perception on what the hell I was
looking at basically so I had to come up
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with a way of actively trading it that
would allow me to profit at it despite
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having a complete lack of knowledge now
over the years my knowledge is improved
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so I've got a much better understanding
of different aspects of racing which has
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helped me improve my trading but
fundamentally I still work on the same
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basis there are races that are taking
place today that I have profiled already
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I've just sat down racing starts in
about half an hour
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and already I can see there's a race
that's Toaster at 22 to that I think I
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know how I'm likely to trade it and then
the pattern repeats a couple of hours
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later so I can do that without any
knowledge of the racing I'm not looking
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at the horse I'm not looking at the
course I'm looking at the market and
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saying this is how the market is
probably likely to trade and when people
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come here
that's what I teach them I talk to them
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about the market and the way that the
market behaves not specifically although
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you know it's worth knowing a few things
about racing to be able to trade it more
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effectively but where I started and what
I essentially do is trade order flow and
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that involves not looking necessarily
the race oh this race it's at 22 -
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that's taking posters often I've got a
pretty good idea of how I think it will
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trade now the problem is at the moment
it's only done about 46 K in turnover
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and when the race starts it will
probably turn over about 800,000 pounds
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so you can see there's 750 thousand
pound missing from the market alone so
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I've got an idea that's how it will
trade but I don't know exactly what's
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going to happen because that's 750
thousand pound that has yet to arrive in
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this market will begin to form the true
opinion so if I took a position now I
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said to your heart do this I think I may
probably get it about right but my
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confidence will grow as the money
arrives the more money arrives the more
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I watch how the money is arriving and
the influence that is having on the
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market they're more confident I will
become so it's that last five to 10
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minutes before the start where most of
my activity takes place you know all the
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way out here an hour before this race is
due to start there isn't enough
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information for me I've got a clue as to
what's going to happen but I can't say
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for sure and this is where trading order
flow becomes a little bit harder for
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people to understand because when you
look at the way that people think they
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want to yes or a no it's like is this
gonna go in this direction just tell me
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yes or no and the fact is when you trade
properly when you're doing cold trading
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or trading order flow you can't give
that definitive answer I'll use likely
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possibly on average other sort of words
that I tend to use because you can never
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say that it's definitely going to happen
now after you know I'm in my 18th year
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now I'll still lose two or three races
out of ten because it just doesn't
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happen you know you set up your trade
for the price to come in you start
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following the price as it comes in and
then it it something goes wrong
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five grand appears out of no
where the horse runs loose or something
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else gets back too heavily and you're
sort of thinking okay I wanted to trade
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this one but I can't now and you know it
was gonna do this and something else has
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changed and the hope and that's the
skill with it's the floor and the huge
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benefit of trading order flow is that
the disadvantage with that is the market
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is uncertain by its its its nature and
that means that people struggle to come
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to terms with that you know people are
looking for a black and white answer to
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say what do I have to do is it not you
know more than once people have said to
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me just tell me what I need to do in
this market it's like well it's not as
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simple as that you know this is what we
expect to happen this is when it's gonna
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happen this is how it's going to happen
and these are the things you can look
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for to confirm that but it may not
happen which is exactly what people
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don't want to hear but the advantage of
that is that because of that it it makes
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the the whole process a little bit
tougher and unintuitive but therefore it
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takes it's I think it's the best way of
doing it it's more profitable because it
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is a little bit harder to do and very
often when I land I tweeted something
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the other day saying he won't find an
easier trade than this one and somebody
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bounced it straight back into my face
and just said you know are you after
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timing you know why don't you tell me
before it happens well the fact is when
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you're trading order flow you can't you
don't know you can this far out
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so there's another race that is two
hours later after the first race the
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toaster that I'm interested in today and
it's I think it's going to exhibit
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exactly the same characteristics but
there's only fourteen thousand pound
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traded at the moment in that market
there's still another 700 750 thousand
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pound to go and as that money arrives I
will get more confident and if you look
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at a charter volume it's very low the
rate of change for ages and ages and
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ages and then it accelerates in that
last five to ten minutes why well if you
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think about it if you're trying to bet
on a one to five shot or something get
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very very short odds as an example when
you're going to place your bet are you
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going to do it two or three hours before
the start of the race when you have
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even seen the horse and you know the
conditions may change or the weather may
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look over you know you don't have enough
information but the closer and closer
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you get to the start of the race you get
more information so you the see the
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horse being saddled up you see how the
jockeys performed over the course of the
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day how other horses are performed on
the same ground and then the horse comes
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to the parade ring and they show the
horse off but to the connections and the
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jockey and everything you get to another
look at the horse there and then you see
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it going to post you get so there's more
and more and more and more information
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coming into the market the longer you
wait so when are you gonna place that
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10,000 pound at one to five are you
gonna do it three hours out when none of
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that exists of course you know you're
gonna do it at the last possible moment
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or when you feel confident and that
confidence may arrive at some point in
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that last fifteen minutes or so so when
you're trading order flow what you're
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doing is you're picking up on that
information now there may be a reason
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that somebody is backing it there may be
a reason that somebody's laying it or
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maybe somebody tipped it up in a
newspaper somewhere now I went off and
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researched all of that and looked at all
of that information to try and see
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exactly what was happening but then it
just dawned on me one day then in fact
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you know the guy that has ran a system
that knows that horses that are dressed
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in blue and yellow and like courses that
are left to right on a Thursday you know
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he's going to be thinking okay now's my
chance to place the bet but he still has
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to place the bet where is he going to
place the bet it goes into the exchange
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any places the bet so you can see that
influence on the market you can see you
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know the tipster that's tipped something
up you can see the comment by the jockey
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if the horse isn't looking good in the
parade ring its price will start to
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drift
now you may actually better see that on
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the television as well as actually see
it in the market but essentially all of
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those decisions and processes and like
you know maybe somebody likes the favor
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because of a certain reason but maybe
somebody likes the second favorite for
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the same reason so really it's a battle
then of which one is liked the most how
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much money of people are going to put
down on the favor or the second favor on
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the basis that they really like it and
in fact on this occasion you can see
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that it's the second favorite that's
attracting more money so maybe it won't
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move as far as you thought it would do
because you can see money's coming for
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the favor
but nonetheless you can see that
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reflected in the market
so what you see in the market when
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you're trading order flows the
aggregation of all of those guesses all
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of those opinions crunch down into a
number and that's what I trade that's
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the way that I trade so of course the
problem is is you know even if you see
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something like this race that's going to
go off in an hour's time or the one that
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goes off two hours after that I've got
an opinion on how I think I'm going to
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trade that but I can't be sure until I
see all of the money arriving and you
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know inevitably if I said Oh back this
one and trade outpost time because it's
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going to work really well it wouldn't
look good in the parade ring the jockeys
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and a bad runner form the rain starts to
come down the ground gets heavy and the
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horse is playing up as well and
therefore the price goes in completely
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the opposite direction so when you're
trading order flow it's impossible to
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Telegraph that out far into the future
right it's not totally impossible there
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are circumstances where everything falls
into place there is such thing as a ten
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out of ten trade and when those occur
and you have all the information and
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everything lines up perfectly you sort
of want to remortgage the house sell off
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the wife and kids and stick all your
money on now I'm not suggesting you do
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that but those trades do occur they just
don't occur very frequently and
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generally what happens on a day to day
basis there's a bit of uncertainty
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floating around the market so you can
never be absolutely definitely sure all
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you can do is like have a internal
scorecard which is score from one to ten
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you know a ten isn't going to occur very
often and neither is a one and you're
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going to be somewhere on that scale so
you can sort of say well it's quite
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likely that this is gonna happen or I
think that this is probably going to be
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happening and then you look for
confirming factors within the market
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that's what you're doing when you're
trading order flow but of course you
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know reflect that out into the wider
betting world and people just don't get
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it people can't understand how that's
possible people are looking for value
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they're looking for form they're looking
at stats and other things like that
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whereas what you're doing is you're
looking at the people that are looking
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at before and if you get skilled at
doing that then necessarily you'll do
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pretty well because you're just making
an assessment on what's happening in the
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market and what goes on in my head is
probably a bit more complex than what
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would go in your head when you're doing
this because I can look at the broad
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sweep of the market at various different
factors and because I've traded nearly
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two hundred thousand
now it's almost second nature to me so
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I'm looking at one thing looking another
and I'm thinking okay I you know I've
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seen this pattern before I know what's
likely to happen but each time I'm only
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a few seconds ahead of the markets like
you see something coming in you see it
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gradually weakening and then it stops
coming in and starts heading back out so
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you know I could lay that if I wanted to
or I could back something else on the
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basis that that is going to start
heading out those things go through my
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mind all of the time that's what's going
on but you can narrow it down to quite a
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simple judgment and you know my
suggestion to you when you're starting
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out or you're learning to trade as you
don't overcomplicate it
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if you try and do it exactly the same
way that I do which is you're looking
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across the entire market for lots of
clues that becomes really hard because
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you're scaling oh yeah the favourites
going in now it's coming out in fact but
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then the second favorite and in fact I
can see the big order on the third and
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now the fact and now so you just end up
getting really confused it gets really
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hard and it will drive you crazy so my
suggestion to you when you're learning
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to trade order flow is to go right back
to the basics start at a very very
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simple vase and you go into a market and
you say okay I'm going to be looking for
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the favorite to be backed or I'm going
to be looking for the favorite to be
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laid and then you and that's all that
you look for you don't interpret what's
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going on down there you don't look here
you don't you know put up 10,000 charts
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and loads of fundamental and technical
indicators you just say let's focus on
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this and let's see what I can learn and
is this being backed you know if I'm
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looking at all of the activity and
perhaps I'm looking at some chance is it
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being backed you've narrow it to that
really simple process now the fact is
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that you could probably go 12 races and
not say a single favorite being backed
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and and you'll be a bit hacked off but
what I'm trying to suggest you here is
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if you learn one skill and become good
at that then you start looking for
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favourites that are being laid and then
you learn that skill and then you start
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saying is this favorite being back to or
late and then you say based upon what I
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say on the second favorite how's that
going to influence the favor and then
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you expand your skill set from there so
it's not a question of looking at the
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marketing just going oh what's going on
it's more a question and this is how I
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started I solved one problem at once at
a time and then added additional layers
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on top of
and they became more skillful so I can
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turn up to market and within a few
seconds I get a view and what I think is
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going to happen then I match that to
what actually is happening and if the
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two of them match up then I'll do the
trade but if neither of them match up
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then I'll continue looking for an
opportunity and I may not actually find
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one it's okay to turn up to market and
say I have no idea what's going on I've
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looked at the car this afternoon and
there are a few races that I won't touch
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because I don't have an opinion on now
and I don't think I'm gonna have an
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opinion on them in the last five to ten
minutes now I will look at them I will
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see if there's an opportunity when that
moment arises but it doesn't mean
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necessarily all trade it sometimes not
making a loss is by not doing something
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that you're uncertain about and again
when you're learning to trade that's the
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sort of process a year through you're
looking at a market you're trying to
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understand if you can understand what's
going on there and if you can't
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understand you're under no obligation
straight just wait and then a decent
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trade will come along and like I said if
you're just looking for the favorite to
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be backed and you can't see evidence of
that skip it maybe it does come in it's
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not your fault sometimes you can't
predict these things but just wait for
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an opportunity that you think you really
truly understand and then execute
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against that so yeah trading order flow
is odd because people very often don't
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understand it you're not going to get a
clear decision you're not going to have
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a yes do this or a no don't do it it's
going to be somewhere in between people
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hate that and it makes it difficult to
describe
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and also it unites the skeptics as well
because you'll only ever be at a post to
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result after it's happened you can't
really necessarily predict what's going
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to happen you can have a view on it but
only when that money begins to arrive
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will you really be able to confirm if
your viewers correct and the fact is all
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of that money arrives really late and
therefore your opinion is going to be
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based upon that last five or ten minutes
and you're gonna be so busy trading it
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it's difficult to actually offer up an
opinion at that point there are things
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that work reasonably well and some that
don't but because of that process you'll
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find that trading order flow isn't a yes
or no decision and it's something that's
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a little bit more dynamic than that but
for all those above reasons that's why
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it works so well as well because
people can't see it won't want to see it
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but it's really essentially this sum of
all of the information within the market
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and that's why trading order flow works
so effectively
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you
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