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The Failure of Woke Policies (From 'The Great Society' to Present Day) | Thomas Sowell - YouTube
Channel: Sowell Explains
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What is intellectually interesting about visions
are their assumptions and their reasoning,
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but what is socially crucial is the extent
to which they are resistant to evidence.
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All social theories being imperfect, the harm
done by their imperfections depends not only
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on how far they differ from reality, but also
on how readily they adjust to evidence, to
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come back into line with the facts.
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One theory may be more plausible, or even
more sound, than another, but if it is also
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more dogmatic, then that can make it far more
dangerous than a theory that is not initially
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as close to the truth but which is more capable
of adjusting to feedback from the real world.
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The prevailing vision of our timeâthe vision
of the anointedâhas shown an extraordinary
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ability to defy evidence.
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Characteristic patterns have developed among
the anointed for dealing with the repeated
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failures of policies based on their vision.
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Other patterns have developed for seizing
upon statistics in such a way as to buttress
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the assumptions of the vision, even when the
same set of statistics contain numbers that
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contradict the vision.
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Finally, there is the phenomenon of honored
prophets among the anointed, who continue
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to be honored as their predictions fail by
vast margins, time and again.
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PATTERNS OF FAILURE A very distinct pattern
has emerged repeatedly when policies favored
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by the anointed turn out to fail.
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This pattern typically has four stages:
STAGE 1.
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THE âCRISISâ: Some situation exists, whose
negative aspects the anointed propose to eliminate.
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Such a situation is routinely characterized
as a âcrisis,â even though all human situations
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have negative aspects, and even though evidence
is seldom asked or given to show how the situation
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at hand is either uniquely bad or threatening
to get worse.
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Sometimes the situation described as a âcrisisâ
has in fact already been getting better for
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years.
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STAGE 2.
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THE âSOLUTIONâ: Policies to end the âcrisisâ
are advocated by the anointed, who say that
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these policies will lead to beneficial result
A. Critics say that these policies will lead
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to detrimental result Z.
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The anointed dismiss these latter claims as
absurd and âsimplistic,â if not dishonest.
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STAGE 3.
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THE RESULTS: The policies are instituted and
lead to detrimental result Z.
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STAGE 4.
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THE RESPONSE: Those who attribute detrimental
result Z to the policies instituted are dismissed
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as âsimplisticâ for ignoring the âcomplexitiesâ
involved, as âmany factorsâ went into
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determining the outcome.
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The burden of proof is put on the critics
to demonstrate to a certainty that these policies
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alone were the only possible cause of the
worsening that occurred.
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No burden of proof whatever is put on those
who had so confidently predicted improvement.
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Indeed, it is often asserted that things would
have been even worse, were it not for the
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wonderful programs that mitigated the inevitable
damage from other factors.
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Examples of this pattern are all too abundant.
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Three will be considered here.
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The first and most general involves the set
of social welfare policies called âthe war
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on povertyâ during the administration of
President Lyndon B. Johnson, but continuing
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under other labels since then.
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Next is the policy of introducing âsex educationâ
into the public schools, as a means of reducing
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teenage pregnancy and venereal diseases.
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The third example will be policies designed
to reduce crime by adopting a less punitive
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approach, being more concerned with preventive
social policies beforehand and rehabilitation
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afterwards, as well as showing more concern
with the legal rights of defendants in criminal
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cases.
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