馃攳
U.S. durable goods make surprising 1.9% increase in June - YouTube
Channel: CNBC Television
[0]
it is time for some new durable goods
[2]
data Rick Santelli is standing by at the
[4]
CME in Chicago and Rick take it away
[8]
Yes actually we have durable goods we
[10]
have some trade numbers you know the
[12]
June Advance trade we don't cover it all
[14]
the time because it's an advanced number
[15]
but at 98.2 billion of course with a
[19]
minus sign it is well off its March all
[22]
time back to 1989 extremes which was 125
[26]
billion dollar deficit so definitely
[29]
making progress there on the retail
[31]
inventories they were up two percent
[33]
double expectations that's a really good
[36]
thing and that's a June number wholesale
[38]
inventory is a preliminary number up 1.9
[41]
that's about uh 0.4 better than expected
[44]
both these of course sequentially are
[47]
gains with respect to the rear view
[49]
mirror and finally on the June
[51]
preliminary read on durable goods
[53]
expecting down four to five tenths it's
[56]
up 1.9 up 1.9 that is definitely better
[60]
than expected it's actually the second
[62]
best number of the Year outside of
[64]
January we're up 3.1 so some very good
[67]
new news there and of course the rest of
[70]
the data sets that are embedded in this
[72]
haven't quite shown up yet I do see
[74]
Capital orders uh the shipments
[77]
non-defense X aircraft of double
[79]
expectations up seven tenths and here we
[81]
go up five tenths on one of my favorites
[84]
capital good orders non-defense X air
[87]
that's over double the expectations and
[89]
that really has been trending quite well
[91]
especially on a year-over-year basis
[93]
it's a proxy for Capital spending and on
[96]
that durable goods order up nearly two
[98]
percent if you strip out Transportation
[100]
it drops dramatically to only up three
[103]
tenths now three tenths is still better
[105]
than expectations but it shows the big
[108]
effects of Transportation with respect
[111]
to boosting the headline durable goods
[113]
number we see all interest rates prior
[115]
that number were actually lower the
[118]
two-year note now is just a a smidge in
[121]
negative price territory with a slightly
[123]
higher yield and that really has been
[125]
the dynamic Becky the flattening yield
[127]
curve inverted yield curve whether it's
[130]
twos to tens or you look at three months
[132]
to tens and of course the big issue
[135]
today is going to be that press
[136]
conference and I know you have Dr Judy
[138]
Shelton on in a bit definitely she's
[140]
been all over paying interest on
[143]
reserves paying interest on the reverse
[145]
refund facility and of course just
[148]
generally servicing the debt all of
[151]
those are going to get quite costly and
[153]
I think that's a very interesting area
[155]
to pay attention to as we get ready to
[158]
watch the Federal Reserve hike interest
[160]
rates at 2 Eastern Becky back to you big
[163]
day Rick thank you Steve leesman joins
[166]
us right now he has more on this Steve
[167]
look at these numbers what does it tell
[169]
you about the picture of the economy
[170]
right now pretty good one it's it's hard
[173]
to think that business is really
[175]
freaked out at the moment by the outlook
[177]
for the economy when new orders for
[180]
durable goods are up by 1.9 percent and
[183]
hats off to my colleague and associate
[186]
in Chicago by uh zeroing in on that uh
[189]
business investment proxy uh new orders
[192]
for uh capital goods X aircraft up 0.5
[195]
percent a caveat in here which is that
[197]
these are not inflation-adjusted numbers
[199]
it's probably about flat relative to uh
[202]
if you factor in inflation on that
[204]
number but they're not giving it up here
[206]
Becky and that's a really important
[208]
aspect to what may or may not be
[209]
happening in the economy remember the
[211]
first quarter GDP number uh despite
[215]
being negative because of inventories
[217]
and trade was positive when you looked
[219]
at both business investment and consumer
[221]
spending uh with shipments up uh let me
[224]
just get that shipments number probably
[225]
a negative number when you factor in
[227]
inflation of 0.3 percent but if they're
[230]
not giving it up and yesterday we had a
[231]
surprise in the Richmond fed index which
[233]
I remember an economist in Richmond to
[236]
me that it's more it does better
[238]
tracking the national economy than the
[240]
Philly fed does that was a surprise
[242]
yesterday so it's hard to find Becky
[244]
again we have these cross currents in
[245]
the economy this concern about the
[247]
recession but also a a an industry
[250]
that's trying to catch up from where it
[253]
was from the pandemic so these two
[254]
forces are playing out each other and
[256]
today it seems like the forces of
[258]
ketchup the forces of uh both computers
[260]
is really interesting to me up higher
[262]
given what Microsoft said so I think
[264]
that's an important aspect to what we're
[265]
watching here which is that you can't
[267]
just count the economy down right here
[270]
there are negative forces out there
[271]
there's a Slowdown happening but there's
[274]
also catch up until the rebound from the
[275]
pandemic happening at the same time
Most Recent Videos:
You can go back to the homepage right here: Homepage