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Coronavirus Epidemic Update 5: Mortality Rate vs SARS / Influenza (Recorded January 29, 2020) - YouTube
Channel: MedCram - Medical Lectures Explained CLEARLY
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welcome to another MedCram update on
the coronavirus for January 29 2020 and
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overnight what we've been looking at is
the number of deaths reported has gone
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from 106 to 132 and the number of
confirmed cases has gone to 5000 974
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that's about a 32% increase the number
of confirmed cases overnight now I want
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to make sure that we put this in
perspective because it's easy to kind of
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get lost in this there is a little bit
of a probably misunderstanding in terms
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of how accurate these numbers are if
anything these numbers are probably
[39]
underrepresented and that could be a
good thing or it could be a bad thing
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and I say that with a little bit of
trepidation in terms of being
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misunderstood but if you're looking here
you're gonna see that there is a ratio
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okay if you look at the number of deaths
- the number of confirmed cases you're
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gonna get a general mortality rate of
about 2.3 percent here on this
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particular day versus the most recent
data that we have is about the same at
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2.2 percent here's the thing both the
numerator here and the denominator need
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to be confirmed by testing to confirm
that this is specifically from the 2019
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corona virus and it's possible that
we're under counting in these areas in
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fact I think everybody agrees that we're
under counting here there's probably
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more deaths than 132 and there's
probably more than 5000 974 confirmed
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cases the question is is where are we
missing it
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a death is a pretty obvious thing it's
hard to miss the only question about
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whether or not it's from this virus or
another particular virus but it's really
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possible and if you think about it there
could be cases out there of corona virus
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that are completely missed and they're
in asymptomatic individuals who maybe
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just got a little bit of a cold and they
may be completely asymptomatic which
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means that this number may be far larger
it could be 50 thousand in which case
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this mortality rate is going to be much
much lower
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then is being reported here so keep that
in mind that's a possibility
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furthermore if you've looked at some of
our other videos and specifically why
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the corona virus can kill and how it
kills we talked a lot about ard s
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obviously not everybody that gets corona
virus goes into ard S which is acute
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respiratory distress syndrome in fact of
all of these cases there's only a
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fraction that end up in the hospital and
of those there's only a fraction that
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needs to go to the ICU and there there's
a fraction that get a RDS and some of
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those end up dying I think in the most
recent Lancet article of those that
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ended up in the hospital that were
confirmed to be cases the mortality
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there was about 15% so that doesn't mean
that 15% of people who get corona virus
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infections are going to die it just
means those that are sick enough that
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end up in the hospital they may go on to
get a RDS 15% of those at least in The
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Lancet article pass away okay and so to
put this in perspective let's look at
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SARS now SARS as you may recall was
another variant of corona virus it was a
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different mutation and it had come from
bats and total over about a year to
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period of time the number of deaths in
that was 774 and the total at number of
[216]
infections was 8090 eight confirmed
cases that was for SARS in 2002 so you
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can see here when we're looking at the
numbers already for corona virus these
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numbers are getting up there fairly
quickly and we're only just a number of
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weeks into this epidemic okay so what
are they doing about this
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well famously you may know that china is
actually working on building a 1,000 bed
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hospital in about ten days and it's
actually quite interesting to look at
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we'll post in the description below a
link of a live webcam that you can look
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at on YouTube as they are actually
building this hospital and just a few
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days ago it was a big feel the dirt and
now they've already poured the concrete
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slab and they believe that
day morning they'll be admitting their
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first patients to that hospital so
that's quite remarkable but we wanted to
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get into some other numbers about what's
going on outside of China and what about
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this person-to-person transmission
because we've got some updates there as
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well so as it stands right now in the
United States there are about five
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confirmed cases two of them in Southern
California by the way there is a little
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side note to this that we had talked
about about 240 people are being
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transported back these are diplomats and
there is a chartered plane that is
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traveling back from China that is going
to land in Anchorage and then was
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scheduled to fly down to Ontario
International Airport in Southern
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California where they would be screened
that has slightly changed and that is
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going to be going to March Air Force
Reserve which was March Air Force Base
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that is in Riverside County that has
been a last-minute change but probably a
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better choice from a political
standpoint because these people are
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going to be monitored at a Air Force
Base that was turned into our Air Force
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Reserve Base as opposed to a fully
functional civilian airports now
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something that is concerning is the
recent story in Germany and this is a
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story where a woman from China who was
asymptomatic and visited in Germany was
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not symptomatic until apparently she
flew back on the plane to China and it
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was only after that that the man who had
never traveled to China was found and
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confirmed to have the corona virus that
is a concern for a couple of reasons
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number one it's the first evidence that
we have outside of China of
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human-to-human transmission number one
number two it seems as though this
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transmission occurred when the woman was
asymptomatic fortunately we can say this
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at this point that none of the deaths
involved with corona virus have occurred
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outside of China at this point and if
you look at the number of cases that are
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being reported including the United
States there are about 73 confirmed
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cases outside of China as
January 29 and in all of those cases
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there have been no deaths so this sort
of goes along with the possibility that
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we may be under estimating the
denominator in the mortality rate and
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that that denominator is possibly far
larger than we know and therefore would
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be a bad thing of course in terms of the
number of people who might be infected
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but as more and more people are infected
and the number of deaths stay the same
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the mortality rate goes down something
to think about and also something to put
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in perspective as we talked about the
number of people to date that have died
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as a result of coronavirus is 132 that
is in Contra distinction - let's just
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look at the regular flu in California
which is where I practice medicine and
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specifically we're having a real issue
right now with the h1n1 flu from 2009
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and I've seen a number of those patients
on ventilators in a RDS here in the last
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couple of weeks where I work and
California State Public Health
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Department put out that the number of
deaths from the flu this year in the
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state of California have doubled from
the previous year and we are already up
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to a hundred and forty nine deaths so
just the number of deaths from the
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regular flu in California is more than
the number of deaths worldwide for
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corona virus if of course you believe
what they're telling you in China but
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just again to put this in perspective so
thank you for joining us for this update
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more updates as they come hopefully
better news as we go and hopefully we
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start to see a slowdown of the number of
reported cases and also the number of
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reported deaths of course thank you for
joining us
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