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BITCOIN HODLERS鈥ATCH BEFORE JULY 26TH (FED MEETING ON TUESDAY) - YouTube
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yes welcome back everybody to altcoin
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daily my name's austin
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the upcoming federal reserve meeting is
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next week specifically tuesday wednesday
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july 26th 27th and if you hold bitcoin
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let's talk about how you should prepare
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because right now in 2022 the federal
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reserve interest rate is already up to
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1.5 to 1.75 percent that is nothing
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compared to what we saw in 2006 which
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was up to 5.25
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we can also compare it to around 2000
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2001 around 6 to 7 percent
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and of course back in the early 80s when
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the fed pushed the interest rates as
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high as 18 to 20 percent at one point to
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combat the crazy inflation we saw back
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then as well
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so knowing all that understanding that
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right now we're still only a 1.5 to 1.75
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today and then knowing that the next fed
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meeting is upon us it's coming up let's
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talk about what that means to me
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like always check the timestamps down
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below in the video description check the
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timestamps we will be reviewing altcoin
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news as well today but let's jump in
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gaining some perspective from veteran
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investor mark mobius
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now mark has seen rate hikes he has seen
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recessions uh inflation over and over
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and over again in his career and he has
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great perspective on the standard
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playbook quote unquote of the fed and
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remember jerome powell has already
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stated that you should probably expect
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another 0.75 increase in next week's
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meeting but how far will this go with
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last month's inflation numbers already
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at 9.1 percent increase year after year
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a nine percent inflation should we still
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expect a 75 basis points increase and
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then how much further up after that this
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is about a 45 second clip it sort of
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jumps right into it at the beginning so
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pay attention from the start let's watch
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this clip and then discuss
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i think we're uh what hitting is the
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united states in mark in terms of um
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of hiking what do you what do you think
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i i stick to my initial statement
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that uh you've got to read the playbook
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playbook of the fed is you've got to
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raise rates above inflation
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now inflation is 9
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that means
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interest rates have got to go up to
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higher than that assuming of course that
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inflation uh does not go down okay
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but as it looks now you know
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three-quarters of a percent is nothing
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it's got to be one two three percent
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rises in order to really attack the
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inflation in the view of this central
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bank i'm not particularly enabled by
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that approach but that's the point
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okay
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short sweet to the point i like it if
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you hold bitcoin let's discuss what he
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just said and what this means to you
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here is a chart that i like 50 years of
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us inflation compared to 50 years of fed
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hiking or lowering interest rates from
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1970 to where we are today and in that
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last clip mark mobius was very clear
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that the standard fed playbook is to
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raise interest rates at least above or
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equal to where u.s inflation is
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and that's true notice how the screen in
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yellow green is inflation rates yellows
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interest rates notice how the yellow
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often matches up or goes above what the
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green is to try and suppress inflation
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now this chart is a little out of date
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inflation numbers as of last month year
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to year like i said were nine point one
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percent that means if nothing changes
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for the rest of the year interest rates
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are at least gonna be over nine percent
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by year's end or or until inflation is
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subdued people are speculating for next
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meeting next week we are at least going
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to get a .75 basis point hike that is
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what jerome powell has hinted at we
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should be likely to expect we saw a 0.75
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increase last time he said probably the
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same thing this time or the other
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speculation is a full one percent
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increase
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let's go into a little bit more detail
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on this
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inflation surged to a fresh four decade
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high of 9.1 percent last month and fed
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officials as well as other parties are
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worried of a full one percentage point
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rate hike expressing their preference
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for a more delicate 0.75
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percentage point hike
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such a move would raise the federal
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funds rate to a range between 2.25 and
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2.5
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which would still be at least 6
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percentage points below the current
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headline inflation rate now the fed has
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told us what they expect for the end of
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the year they expect the federal funds
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rate interest rate to eventually to be
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around 3.4 percent by year's end while
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inflation is forecasted to be at 5.2
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percent by year's end
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and obviously from everything we know of
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the fed they have underplayed inflation
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over and over and over again so i would
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suspect this would probably be much
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higher and whatever inflation gets to i
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would expect the interest rate to grow
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to match based on the history of the fed
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now why this matters to you and me for
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those who hold bitcoin this dynamic is
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being closely watched in the bitcoin
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market partly because the price
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performance of the largest crypto by
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market cap bitcoin has recently been
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correlated to all other major markets
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meaning the more aggressive the federal
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reserve is the more suppression comes to
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all major markets
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as well as with higher interest rate
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hikes
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higher borrowing costs will eat into
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corporate earnings and slow the pace of
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investments in the overall economy
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okay
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give me your thoughts on this down below
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do you think we'll see a 0.75 percent
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rate increase or do you think we'll see
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a fully on aggressive one percent
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increase
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give me your thoughts down below
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and now before we get to altcoin news
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like i said check the timestamps let's
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first finish this clip
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of veteran investor mark mobius giving
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his thoughts on when these rate hikes
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will end does he see end of the year
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going further into next year and also
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although unasked he does share his
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bearish thoughts on cryptocurrency watch
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this then we'll review
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i don't know i don't know what you mean
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what you think as far as duration goes
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does that sound like a period of
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of years to you or more than a year so
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that you wouldn't you wouldn't be that
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bullish on the u.s market for another
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year
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well you must remember the u.s market is
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already tanked i mean if you define a 20
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decline as a bear market we're in a bear
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market already
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it can go lower uh probably we'll go
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a little lower but the market has
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somewhat
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uh already discounted a lot
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um
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but let's keep an eye on bitcoin and the
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cryptocurrencies as you know uh all of
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those cryptocurrency exchanges are in
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trouble
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and uh i fear that a a real
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further decline of course
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cryptocurrencies have recovered a little
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bit but if they decline substantially
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more then that would be a signal for
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reaching the bottom of the stock market
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as well because it's really a very good
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sentiment indicator
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okay
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let's break this down on the one hand he
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does give a sort of positive reminder
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that we are by no means at the beginning
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of this recession correction crash
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whatever you call it we're right in the
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thick of it a lot of it has already
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happened and although he can see another
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leg down for markets
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we're probably somewhere in the middle
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or closer to the bottom than the top in
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mark's opinion on the other hand he
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comes off as ultra bearish on bitcoin
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and crypto but for those ogs in the
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space that have been through bear
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markets before
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nothing new
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usually bitcoin in bear markets corrects
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at least an 85 percent correction for
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multi-miles
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if we saw an 85 percent correction from
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the all-time high of around 69 000
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that would take us to around an
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thousand dollar bitcoin not saying it
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will happen maybe this was the bottom i
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can't see the future i'm just dca on the
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way down like everybody else but if we
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dipped even lower that would be normal
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for bitcoin based on past bear cycles
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what about altcoins well obviously
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altcoins are more speculative more risky
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we all know this they often oscillate
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around bitcoin when bitcoin pumps
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altcoins come harder when bitcoin dips
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altcoins tend to dip lower time will
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tell give me your thoughts down below
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and next up in the latter half of
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today's video let's talk about recent
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altcoin news that you should know as an
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investor and by the way for those who
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haven't already be sure to check out our
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interview which just dropped with mary
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spio who is a space engineer
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entrepreneur and founder and ceo of seek
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talking all about the metaverse seek
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this out great interview
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but next up first piece of news a report
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from boston consulting group crypto to
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reach 1 billion users in 2023 and they
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do provide the context to back this up
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in a joint report published by boston
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consulting group bitget and foresight
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ventures data shows that crypto adoption
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is still very low compared with
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traditional investment assets
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according to bcg only 0.3 percent of
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individual wealth is invested in crypto
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which is incomparable with the 25 put
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into equities the report concludes that
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this shallow investment penetration
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means that there's still a lot of room
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for more substantial growth and adoption
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within the crypto industry
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they also provide this chart of
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expectations for the future comparing
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web 3 crypto to the internet and when
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they feel crypto will reach 1 billion
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users
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in addition the report compares the
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internet's adoption curve to reach 1
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billion users with current crypto
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holders and ethereum addresses with
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non-zero balances
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the report mentions that there is plenty
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of growth to come and in conclusion what
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they found is by comparing the data the
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researchers predicted
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that crypto users may reach 1 billion
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users by 2023 if the trend continues and
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of course as they say the trend is
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usually your friend
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but anyway that is the video my name is
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austin like always see you tomorrow and
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be sure to check out the interview
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see you tomorrow
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