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Steve Rattner Charts The Volatile Stock Market | Morning Joe | MSNBC - YouTube
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it looks like it's gonna be another
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tough day on Wall Street after the
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Federal Reserve once again raised
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interest rates the Fed announced
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yesterday that as the market had
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expected it was going to raise a
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benchmark rate the BART move that was a
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fourth increase this year and the night
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since the Central Bank begin normalizing
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rates three years ago so Steve you've
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got some charts for us to put
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yesterday's decision by the Fed put it a
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little more in context what in the world
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is going on and now I have to be serious
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right no more yeah no more background
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data business first so first let's take
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a look at what happened the stock market
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has had a rough several months and in
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fact when you add it all together the
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stock market is back to it was 15 months
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ago its back where it was before Donald
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Trump's tax plan that was going to make
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America great again was put in place but
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by the way it's down what what
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percentage is it down since I mean 2 3 4
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% since the tax cuts well since the tax
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cuts yeah it's down to 3 or 4 or 5%
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something like that yeah and this is
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actually going to be the worst December
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since 1931 for the stock by the way
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what's it a great year not a great year
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1931 so why is this happening and there
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are a lot of reasons it's very always
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hard to decipher the stock market even
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after it happens on long before but
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global growth slowing global growth is
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playing a role so we'll take a look at
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those numbers and if you look over here
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you can see that on a global basis
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growth is coming down from is projected
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to come down from 3.2 percent to 3
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percent now that may not sound like a
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lot a lot but that's a couple hundred
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billion dollars when you look at it
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across the world's economy well and you
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look at China let's put this back up it
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wasn't so long ago that China was
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experiencing 8 9 10 percent growth now
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of course you've shown you know past
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couple years and it's down now a couple
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of percent to 6 but quite a change over
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5 years yes but remember also that China
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makes up their numbers to some degree
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and so there are many fears that China
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is actually in much worse shape than
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what you're looking at so they may not
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even be there what you're looking at
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here and for the US we're looking at
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growth somewhere in the two and a half
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percent range next year we
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a long way from the 3% plus that Donald
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from told us was let's ask let me ask
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you is this just you look over a hundred
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years and there's an ebb and a flow
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there's a recession there's a recovery
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then we go back down towards the
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recession isn't this just part of a
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natural business cycle some degree it is
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economists say that recoveries don't die
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of old age except that they do and we
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are at the tail end as you say have a
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long business cycle but nonetheless
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nonetheless it's very possible if Donald
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Trump will be facing a recession in 2020
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as he runs for reelection what is there
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on that cycle why yeah let's look at
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just this last chart for one second and
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you can see what the world is think
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thinks is going to happen to interest
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rates which is an arbiter of the future
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so the Fed has been bringing down its
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interest rate projections and you can
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see that up here and that was part of
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what it announced yesterday but the
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market thinks this is what's happening
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interest rates the market thinks that
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interest rates might go up a little more
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but then in 2020 they will be actually a
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little bit lower than they are today now
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that's good news for borrowers as
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goodness people getting a mortgage but
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it's a signal that the market thinks
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there's a bunch of economic weakness
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coming you globally what is the biggest
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driver to stagnation that we're starting
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to say you know it varies Europe is a
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mess you got brexit you've got Italy
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with the banks are in trouble you've got
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Germany which actually had a negative
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quarter of GDP growth you know what's
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happening in France right so they've got
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a whole set of problems
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China's got a set of problems where she
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is trying to manage the economy but not
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it's not working that well and where
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they're over built over invests it over
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in debt and then in the u.s. we had this
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sugar high from the tax cut from
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spending that's worn off and now we are
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drifting back toward 2% growth maybe
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worse and you I know we have to go they
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keep telling we have to go but I just
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have to ask this question I did the set
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up I have to ask a final question so you
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look at what the world is looking like
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what the EU is looking like what Britain
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Germany what what China Russia's like
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the United States of America still is
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the safest port in the storm right we
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well China's going to higher growth but
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in terms of basic I'm gonna develop the
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world we will
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the fastest rate of growth even under
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these circumstances that as far as
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long-term stability I don't know what's
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gonna happen to China but as you often
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point out we also have one of the worst
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fiscal positions of any country in the
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world and that's gonna come home to
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roost at some point too but look the
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bottom line I think to some degree is
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that Donald Trump is not going to be
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running two years from now with a 3%
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plus growing economy and on wages having
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gone up a lot for the average American
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alright Steve thanks that was great up
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next we have a pair of US congressman
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from opposite sides of the aisle we're
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gonna get their reaction to the
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president's new Syria policy and the
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push to avoid a government shutdown now
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just over one day away morning Joe back
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in a moment thanks for checking out
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MSNBC on YouTube and make sure you
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day's biggest stories and you can click
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more four Morning Joe and MSNBC thanks
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so much for watching
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