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Football Accumulator Betting: Truth Revealed by a 10 Year Professional | Caan Berry - YouTube
Channel: Caan Berry Pro Trader
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so this week's question comes from billy聽
joe who asks uh have you got any tips on聽聽
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football accumulator bets are threefolds better聽
on bigger bets or would you prefer to do a tenfold聽聽
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on smaller money so thank you聽
for the question there billy joe聽聽
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i think this is one that's relevant to a lot聽
of people a wider audience out there so in聽聽
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this video i'm going to do my best to provide as聽
much value as possible share some stuff on screen聽聽
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with you about football accumulators or even any聽
accumulators on any sport the truth behind them聽聽
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and my perspective as a pro of 10 years on the聽
betting exchanges i think it will surprise some聽聽
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of you to be quite honest i'll also explain how聽
i'd approach accumulate a betting with all the聽聽
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things that i know showing you some mathematical聽
stuff on screen but before i do please if i can聽聽
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just ask you to tap the like button down below聽
providing you find this video useful of course聽聽
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by the end as it incentivizes us to create聽
more quality content thank you okay so way聽聽
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back when before i got involved in sports markets聽
professionally i used to have a little accumulator聽聽
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too but that was before i understood what i'm聽
about to show you on screen now so i'm going聽聽
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to explain in simplistic terms the problem聽
with placing accumulators so i'm going to use聽聽
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betfair as an example we're going to use both the聽
sports book and the exchange within this example聽聽
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but it's really quite clear when it's laid out聽
like this so when you place an accumulator there聽聽
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obviously that means to place a bet on you know聽
several different outcomes simultaneously one聽聽
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after the other in order to receive a larger聽
return than you would of a standard bet because聽聽
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the odds are far bigger so in our example here聽
if we take uh football matches premier league聽聽
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and we go with let's just go with all the draw聽
outcomes um for simplicity so we'll go less聽聽
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liverpool draw crystal palace burnley man city聽
tottenham and we'll do brighton villa as well so聽聽
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that populates all our selections on the best slip聽
over on the right um and we've got four fold down聽聽
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the bottom here which is obviously the accumulator聽
uh for argument's sake i'm gonna put ten pounds聽聽
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there so you see for these four uh four results um聽
in an accumulator the total return is 1905 pounds聽聽
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which is inclusive of our 10 pound stake also聽
so we can take that off the total if you like聽聽
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so that might not seem too bad on the initial聽
outset and placing an accumulator we're in聽聽
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fraction awards here which can be a little bit聽
confusing and a little bit harder for you know聽聽
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the human brain to process instantly when looking聽
at it so we're going to go down to the bottom聽聽
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and select decimal odds then if you know that's聽
possible in the sports book there and that's going聽聽
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to put the bet slips in decimal format now it's聽
no different you can see that the result is still聽聽
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1905 pounds 75 so when you place in lots of聽
different outcomes on an accumulator like this
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it's actually amplifying the sports books聽
margin into that now if we were to take a聽聽
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direct comparison which i'm going to do on the聽
screen now between the exchange for those outcomes聽聽
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you'd get a very different result so very quickly聽
we need a calculator to calculate this because聽聽
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you can't place an accumulator or a multiple on聽
betfair's exchange so we'll select the betfair tab聽聽
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and we'll get those same matches less than聽
liverpool draws 3.75 palace burnley's 3.25 and聽聽
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city tottenham 6 and villa bryan is 3.55 now if聽
i bring a calculator onto the screen i'm going to聽聽
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times all of those odds by each other to give the聽
overall accumulators odds so 3.75 times by 3.25
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times by 6 times by 3.55 very simple聽
this gives us the overall accumulators聽聽
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odds so if i times that by the 10 pound stake
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you'll see that we would be returned a聽
total of 2595 on the exchange odds so when聽聽
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we compare that to the sports book odds that's聽
a pretty big difference 1900 quid or 2595 okay聽聽
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and that's because on the sports book odds聽
there's the margin factored into the pricing聽聽
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all very simple but i don't think a lot of people聽
that place accumulators regularly realize this is聽聽
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what's going on and this is why sports books like聽
accumulators so much this is also why affiliates聽聽
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like placing accumulators and you'll see a lot聽
of them on social media so much because there's聽聽
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a huge margin factor into the pricing which聽
obviously means profit for them coming out of your聽聽
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pocket now unfortunately this is just the truth聽
um when sort of researching for this video i went聽聽
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over onto the twitter to find a couple of examples聽
of affiliates who push accumulators regularly聽聽
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namely in particular the the handle footy of and聽
they're saying that they've blocked me on twitter聽聽
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and i actually have no idea why i'm blocked by聽
that other than the fact that i talk the truth聽聽
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about these kind of instances online occasionally聽
i think in a nutshell that just reinforces聽聽
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everything i'm trying to say here so accumulators聽
can be a little bit like a you know well they're聽聽
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more of a gamble than anything else now the聽
more selections you have on your accumulator聽聽
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the more the problem if you like or the margin聽
is multiplied against you so in answer to your聽聽
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original question there uh it would be better聽
to have less selections if you are going to do聽聽
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an accumulator because your payout is far closer聽
to the true probability of it actually happening聽聽
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although you should still remember that that聽
margin is factored in there also however it's聽聽
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not all doom and gloom because if you're able to聽
find betting odds that are actually larger than聽聽
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their probability of happening you can multiply聽
your accumulator potential profit in the alternate聽聽
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direction so we've got a good video on the channel聽
about that and about betting strategy which we'll聽聽
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put here we'll put a link in description down聽
below i'd highly advise checking that out after聽聽
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this video so how would i approach placing an聽
accumulator as you're asking the question there聽聽
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if i was to do so and then first of all because of聽
the reasons i've just explained that i think it's聽聽
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quite unlikely that i would ever do that i don't聽
see the reason i would be interested in doing that聽聽
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finding odds that are greater than their true聽
value is hard enough let alone to find several聽聽
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outcomes where that is the case now the exchange聽
would also be my go-to for placing that bet and聽聽
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i would place each leg individually one after聽
the other at the exchange odds so i got those聽聽
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bigger prices instead of placing it over聽
sportsbook yes i know it's a convenience聽聽
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thing that's what they're praying on there聽
that's how they make more and more money from聽聽
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the end user being itself so just be highly聽
aware of that if you're looking to place a聽聽
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football accumulator in the coming weeks aside聽
from that if i was placing an accumulator on聽聽
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the exchange leg by leg there i think what i would聽
probably do is use something like a match betting聽聽
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calculator or something like that profit russia聽
or any other site just to calculate the outcomes聽聽
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and the potential of laying it off so we can kind聽
of like hedge and create some insurance inside our聽聽
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bet as it unfolds all of this of course makes it聽
more complicated takes up more of your time um and聽聽
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is a little bit more in depth given all the time聽
that's factored into it um the effort and the聽聽
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complexity um in relation to the likely returns i聽
think to be quite honest with you that is the open聽聽
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you know truthful reason why i you wouldn't really聽
catch me placing accumulator bets and i have no聽聽
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interest in them there's far easier ways for me聽
to earn money from betting online so that rounds聽聽
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up football accumulate a bit in if you found it聽
useful please don't forget to tap that like button聽聽
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down below subscribe to the channel and leave聽
a question of your own for following week's q a
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