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Bluechips [HUL, HDFC] fall massively! | Time to buy? - YouTube
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hey everyone before starting the
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official video for today i wanted to put
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out a very important message regarding
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hindustan unilever stock so i have
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received a lot of messages so i thought
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that i will just take a minute and
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clarify this
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first and foremost there is no
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fundamental problem with stocks like
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hindustan unilever or asian paints at
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the moment this is not a buying and
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selling recommendation i am just trying
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to tell you that fundamentally nothing
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is off if you check the revenues numbers
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profit numbers nothing nothing
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absolutely nothing is off there second
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key point then why is the stock price
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falling it is simply because of the fact
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that people thought that the russia
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ukraine crisis will blow over very very
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quickly but it has started to get a
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little bit messy now as a result what is
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going to happen is that we are going to
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have it's almost given that we are going
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to have very high inflation in the
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economy and because of which even
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fundamentally good stocks are falling
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should you be buying these talks should
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you not be buying these talks so listen
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to my commentary on today's video hi
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everyone welcome to today's video so if
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you're tracking the stock market on
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wednesday when i'm shooting this video
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you would quickly realize that hdfc bank
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icici bank access bank tech bank they
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have all fallen by a lot
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so is this a great buying opportunity
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should you be buying more stocks and how
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you can hedge it and why these stocks
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have fallen these are some of the
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prominent points that we are going to
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discuss on today's video super important
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video from the point of view that if
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indian economy has to grow the banking
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stocks will have to grow and support
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that economy there is a very very strong
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relationship between the flow of credit
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that is banks and the performance of the
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economy
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so if you're betting on the indian
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economy bet on banks that's the simplest
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strategy of investing in the stock
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market and now might be a great time to
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invest i will also show you live
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investment in some of these stocks so
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before we get the discussion started
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very big shout out to our sponsors for
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today which is jupiter it's a neo
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banking app these neo banks work hand in
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hand with conventional banks to improve
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the banking experience for customers
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jupiter is an app you can download it it
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would allow you to save track and spend
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your money better and there are a range
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of functionalities that you can explore
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so let's get the discussion started and
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first and foremost let me just quickly
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take you to the recent performances of
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these banks so as i'm shooting this
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video today you can see the chart of
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hdfc bank and from its top it has fallen
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from roughly 172 rupees to today 1357
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rupees so this was a big fall it's
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approximately 21 percent fall it
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recovered a little bit during the day
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and now the total loss stands at 20 from
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its top so this is a big fall one-fifth
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of the value eroded of a huge dynamic
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bank like hdfc is it time to panic hold
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your horses we will have that discussion
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let us also check this for ic ici bank
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so if you draw this line you will see
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that again the fall here was roughly 16
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and a half 17 percent from its stop and
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again you can see this last red candle
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and this was the fall today so this was
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again a big fall why has icici fallen
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less compared to hdfc bank if you have
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been watching my channel you would
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already know the answer so comment below
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it would allow me to understand that
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you're learning something from my videos
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if you do a similar analysis for kotec
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bank and other major banks in india
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again they have all fallen so this does
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not seem like a bank specific problem
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this looks more like an industry
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specific problem with the banking
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industry so you will say akshat this
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looks very scary can you discuss the
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reasons for the fall and should we be
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buying these stocks okay let us discuss
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that so first and foremost let's quickly
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discuss the performance of hdfc bank so
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here you just simply need to take a look
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at revenues so revenues have been
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constantly going up there is absolutely
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no problem with the revenues same goes
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for net profits there is absolutely no
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problem with the net profits also it has
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been constantly rising no problem again
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there if we check the latest results so
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let's take a look at the latest results
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and compare it on yearly and quarterly
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basis so quarterly performance has
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improved no problem year on year sales
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performance has improved again no
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problem
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so it doesn't seem like a fundamental
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problem it's not as if that hdfc bank or
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icici bank are not able to perform or
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people have stopped depositing money or
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there is something bad that is going on
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with these banks it is just that that
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the entire banking industry is suffering
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for the time being why is that there are
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three very important reasons so let me
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go one by one so reason number one the
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asset side risk of banks has increased
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okay wow what does this mean this sounds
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super complicated no it is not just try
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to understand it by using a simple
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example how do banks like hdfc icici
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make money they take deposits you go and
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deposit your salary banks pick this up
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and they forward this as loan right and
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in the middle they take some commissions
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and that is what the entire business
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model for bank is
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now when you are going and depositing
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your money in a bank the money that is
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deposited becomes an asset for the bank
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because they are using this money this
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order to pass it off as loans and they
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are making money in the process so right
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now the risk of these assets have gone
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up you would be surprised you will say
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that you know what i don't see any
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changes happening why is this risk going
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up i don't understand i don't follow
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okay what happens is there are
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macroeconomic changes that keep on
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happening in the world so you need to
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understand this by putting the lens from
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all across the globe so what happens is
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that during risky situations or
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uncertain times for example right now
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there is russia ukraine crisis and no
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one in the world can guarantee how this
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crisis might pan out if mr vladimir
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putin go bonkers and he presses the
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nuclear button then it's the end of the
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world i'm smiling but it's a very
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serious issue and it might happen who
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knows right so no one is sure and this
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uncertainty is very very high for
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example india is a risky economy why
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because it's an emerging economy other
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emerging economies are also risky so fi
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money it flies from riskier economies to
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safer economies not safe economies safer
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economies so safer economies will be
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economies like europe us etc which are
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bigger economies which have more scale
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which have more resilience so therefore
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fi sell stuffs in the emerging economies
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like india and move that money to safer
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economies and as a result fundamentally
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good stocks like hdfc bank also fall of
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course i can show you the data and prove
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this point so take a look at the feb
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selling of fi i's right only fi is not
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diis because diis keep their money in
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the indian market they have no other
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option at scale so we are just looking
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at fi selling so
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tell me when this number of forty five
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thousand seven twenty crore was greater
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in any of the other months so let us
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just quickly scroll through this column
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so you will see forty one thousand crore
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thirty five thousand thirty nine twenty
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five two thousand twenty three thousand
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etc etc then there was a lot of buying
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sixty five thousand forty two thousand
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this that and suddenly you will see oh
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sixty five thousand eight one six this
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looks interesting okay and this was
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which month this was march 2020 what was
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the crisis then it was the covet crisis
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money flew from emerging economies like
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india to stable economies like u.s
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europe etc and this number is very well
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represented now interesting thing is
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that if you scroll up you will see that
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when situation starts improving this
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money comes back it's not as if that
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this money forever goes away so the fi
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sold stuff in march of 2020 quite
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aggressively then they ended up
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purchasing roughly six seven months
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after in november of 2020. now it's not
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as if that this money is forever gone
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but yes due to this excessive selling
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there is short-term pain in the market
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what can you do as an investor not much
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you cannot number one predict the crisis
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or the extent of that crisis number two
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you and i are indian citizens if we are
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transferring money outside india in
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excessive amount we have to pay like a
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lot of surcharge also on it so we don't
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have that flexibility of withdrawing our
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money to some other economy we by
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default are invested in the indian
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economy and we have to trust it there is
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just no other option i will tell you
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some hedging options towards the end of
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the video but primarily money is tied up
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in the indian economy and if something
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bad happens in india of course our money
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will take a lot of it as normal retail
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investors important point to note is
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that you and i can't do much and we
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should not panic because fis are selling
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they sell and then they come back also
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so don't worry about that it's okay see
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your portfolio in red for a few months
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maybe it will become green again if you
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are purchasing good stocks
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now the second reason for the fall is
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the expectation of lingering recovery
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what does this mean so let me go to the
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nifty 50 chart and show you what that
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means basically what happens is that
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this is the 2020 crash this is the 2022
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crash so to say why did the markets
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crash here because there was coved and
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no one could have approximated till what
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point this covid situation might last
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back in march of 2022 so there are
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expectations some will say that okay it
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will recover in like six months some
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will say that you know what it might
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take six years and some will say that
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you know z jingpin is a crazy guy he
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will act like bats again and he will
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spread like another wave and what not so
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there is just no consensus there but
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people have a certain expectation when
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this crisis will get over
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so in 2022 when we were entering this
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2022 phase somewhere here this part of
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the equation
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people were imagining what people were
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imagining that you know what markets
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have already given a lot of run-up there
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will be sideways movement that will
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happen and it started happening then
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unfortunately a big correction came in
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the form of russia ukraine crisis lot of
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panic and now the expectations are that
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you know what the markets are going to
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move in this sideways movement for a
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much longer time because russia has
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somewhat destabilized the world so to
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say so the expectation of recovery has
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gotten elongated and it is reflecting in
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stocks should you panic as a normal
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investor the answer is no should you
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panic if you are a trader maybe but if
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you're an investor please don't panic
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sell it's a good time to buy from that
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perspective can markets fall further of
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course it can fall further no doubt
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about that but but whenever the market
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gives a breakout and the recovery starts
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on an upward trending trajectory all the
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stocks that you're purchasing now will
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become green don't worry about that
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let's move on to third and final reason
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for the fall that finance stocks
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especially now especially banks are
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going to correct a lot more because
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finance stocks have a high beta and they
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correct more compared to other sectors a
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classic case in point is the bajaj
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finance stock for example if you take a
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look at 2020 crisis bajaj finance was
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trading at its top at roughly 5000 it
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fell all the way to 2000. so it got
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corrected by almost 60 percent but did
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the markets fall by 60 or the nifty fell
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by 60 the answer is no nifty did not
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fall by 60 bajaj finance corrected more
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because it's a finance and an nbfc stock
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so it corrected more because the beta of
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bajaj finance stock is going to be
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higher so when you are seeing hdfc bank
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20 percent loss 25 loss from the top it
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does not mean that this loss is going to
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be permanent now look at the run-up
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bajaj finance has given after the fall
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so the point is that finance stocks
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correct a lot also during correction and
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then they grow a lot very very fast
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whenever the economy recovers so you
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need to be okay seeing this volatility
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if you're not okay seeing the volatility
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please do not purchase equities buy
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bonds or some other investment
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instruments where volatility is not
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there so you should be comfortable
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seeing volatility so this brings us to
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the next section of the video that what
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is it that i am doing so i am doing two
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things one i am purchasing stocks this
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is me investing 10 lakh rupees in the
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stock market today
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so these are some of the stocks that
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i've purchased
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now you might ask me that rakshat you
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are buying stocks like asian paints also
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can you explain why so i'm purchasing
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something like asian paints from a
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hedging perspective hedging means that i
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am trying to hedge my aggressive
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portfolio by buying defensive stocks
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like asian paints some of these stocks
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including asian paints that i purchased
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were a defensive stock they are unlikely
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to fall a lot compared to finance stocks
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so therefore i have purchased it as a
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hedge i've also done fno futures an
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option to hedge my entire portfolio i
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will not get into the details because
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fno is a highly complicated subject i
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don't want to outline things as a money
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making instrument because honestly fno i
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do for hedging i do not do fno to make
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money it's a very risky proposition
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therefore i don't talk too much about it
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but maybe i will make a separate video
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on this channel talking about the
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hedging strategies where i can show you
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how i do futures and option position to
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hedge my entire portfolio so this is the
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first key thing that i'm hedging my
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portfolio second key thing is that i'm
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keeping a long-term view in mind
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regarding banking finance stocks what
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does this mean so for example right now
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if you think about banks hdfc bank icici
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bank these are all leading banks in
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india they are available at a discount
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zoom out and think three to five years
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ahead can these banks be replaced the
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answer seems like a no number two will
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these banks grow their business the
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answer seems to be yes why because the
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flow of credit in india is becoming
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easier and easier people are using and
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buying more and more stuff there is more
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consumeristic culture at play keep on
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talking about being conservative with
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your spending but and majority of the
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people will not develop those habits and
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you will become rich by investing in
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banks that's a simple argument there and
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also if you look at the convenience
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factor for example neo banks like
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jupiter have made the life of consumers
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very very easy you can do financial
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planning in a more methodical and
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convenient way by using applications
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like jupiter so more people will be
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using these type of applications these
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new banks work with conventional bank
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and overall their business will grow
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with time that is an undisputed fact the
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chances of that happening is very very
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high and we are playing the probability
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game in the stock market no one can
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guarantee things that hdfc bank will not
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fall further or icici bank will not fall
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further no one can take those guarantees
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but right now seems like a great
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opportunity to invest so i am taking
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more positions on these banks i hope you
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enjoyed the video please press the like
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button and i will see you tomorrow
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