馃攳
INR 1 Cr. in Stock Market | Learn Fundamental Analysis | #FundamentalAnalysis #StockMarket - YouTube
Channel: unknown
[0]
These were some of the assets that helped
[1]
me make a lot of returns in the last one
year, but I also need to tell you
[5]
that there were certain assets that I
completely avoided in order to free up
[9]
my money so that I can make
these smart investments.
[18]
Hello, everyone, welcome to today's video.
[20]
So today I have something very,
very interesting planned for you.
[23]
I'm going to show you how did I make more
than one crore rupees trading
[28]
and investing in the stock
market in the last one year.
[30]
I'm going to share my strategies with you.
[32]
So I would humbly request you that you
[33]
please like, comment and share this
video with your friends.
[36]
This would mean a lot to me.
[37]
The more information you pass
on to others, the more they will learn
[40]
and more good karma you
will create in the world.
[42]
And that is precisely the reason
why I'm shooting this video.
[45]
So let's get this video started.
[46]
So if you wish to make money in the stock
market, first and foremost,
[49]
you must understand macroeconomics
and the concept of investment cycle.
[54]
So let me help you understand this concept
by taking you to the nifty 50 chart.
[58]
Now I'm taking a look
at the five year nifty 50 chart.
[60]
What you can see is that there are
certain trends that you will see.
[63]
You will see that, hey,
the market is falling at some places.
[65]
It is going up at certain places.
So why is that happening?
[67]
So there must be some kind
[69]
of macroeconomic trend
that would be happening here.
[71]
So let me help you understand
that more.
[73]
For example, if you study the 2020 crash,
March 2020 crash,
[78]
you would see that the stock market fell
from a high of 12400 level
[82]
to approximately
7600 level.
[86]
There was a forty six percent
[87]
approximately dip in the market,
which was a massive, massive crash.
[90]
Right. After that,
the market started recovering.
[93]
Now, if you would have studied
the concept of Bull run, right.
[98]
I, in fact,
came out with a video yesterday.
[100]
I will link it here.
Please go and watch it.
[102]
If you understand the concept of bull run,
you would have identified very,
[107]
very easily that, hey,
when this crash had happened and there was
[110]
a forty six percent correction,
it was a time to go big and invest a lot
[114]
of money in the stock market because
the bull run was about to happen.
[117]
And that is what precisely happened
[120]
in the last 12-13 months,
that the bull was running crazy and people
[123]
who had invested insane amount of money
in this part made a lot of returns,
[128]
including me. Every type of market,
whether it's a bull market,
[131]
bear market or a bunny market,
you would have to trade and invest
[134]
in a different fashion altogether
depending on the market dynamics.
[138]
Which brings me to a related
concept called as investment cycle.
[141]
So, for example,
[142]
if you take a look at the investment
cycle of anything, it could be stock,
[146]
it could be bond, it could be gold.
[148]
The macro economics works like this,
[150]
that there is a price rise
in certain type of asset.
[153]
For example, if you consider
the housing market,
[156]
the trend was that from 2000 to 2008,
the prices were going up. Post that it
[163]
almost stagnated and in fact
it even came down.
[166]
So this type of a sine wave actually works
[169]
in majority of the asset classes
from a macroeconomic perspective.
[173]
So you must understand that just because
in the past, your mutual fund manager has
[177]
shown that this particular housing sector,
mutual funds have given 15-20 percent
[181]
return, that does not mean
that it will continue to happen.
[184]
So please understand these two basic
concepts that, number one identify
[188]
trends like bunny run, bull run,
[190]
bear run, very important for you
to understand that and also understand
[193]
the concept of investment cycle. The price
of a commodity or the price of an asset
[198]
moves only when people
are investing in it.
[202]
For example, let me talk about
the curious case of ITC.
[205]
Stocks like ITC is a wonderful stock.
[208]
It's a great company.
[210]
Even I invested in ITC,
[212]
but the problem is that the price
of ITC stock does not go up.
[215]
Why?
[215]
Because there is not enough action
happening that people are not buying ITC
[219]
despite its valuations being so
attractive,
[221]
despite it being a fundamentally strong
company, the price of ITC will go up only
[226]
and only if there are enough net
buyers for a stock like ITC.
[230]
So very important for you to understand
[232]
that in the economy there are
certain cycles that will happen.
[235]
There are certain trends that will happen.
[237]
So unless you develop your macroeconomic
[239]
understanding, you will not
make money in the stock market.
[241]
Now, here is a very important part that I
will leave you with - if you actually invest
[246]
your money in a market when it is
going up, you will make money, right.
[250]
It would not largely matter what
type of stocks you are investing.
[253]
Similarly, if you are investing your money
[255]
in a falling market,
you will lose all your money irrespective
[258]
of what type of stocks you're
putting your money on.
[260]
So very important for you to understand
these macroeconomic fundamentals.
[264]
That is the first key
concept that I will explain.
[266]
Now, the second concept that I would want
[268]
to talk about is that investing
in fundamentally good stock.
[271]
Now, what do I mean by fundamentally
good stocks?
[273]
Let me show you an example.
[274]
Let us consider the case
of Hindustan Unilever.
[277]
As you can see that Hindustan Unilever is
[280]
a large cap company itself,
it's a massive company.
[283]
Now, here you can check that the default
[285]
probability is very low,
quality is very high, growth
[288]
score is very good.
If you take a look at the financials
[291]
of the company, you will see that it has
shown consistent growth. Show me
[294]
one year where the revenues of
HUL have gone down.
[297]
It has not gone down.
[298]
Show me one year when the profits
of HUL has gone down.
[301]
It has not gone down.
[302]
So should I go and buy
[304]
HUL now? The answer is no.
[305]
According to me,
that is not what I'm doing.
[307]
What I did was that back in March.
[310]
So I'll show you the charts now.
[311]
So back in March, this is
the analysis that I did.
[314]
You can take a look at HUL stock.
[316]
It is on a consistent rise.
[317]
It has been rising like crazy over the years.
[320]
So it is a fundamentally good stock
for the wide variety of factors that I
[324]
just spoke about. Now
in March 2020,
[327]
what happened?
Let me just quickly move it to a five year
[330]
window and let me show you
what happened in March.
[333]
Twenty twenty.
[334]
So in March 2020, the stock was trading at
approximately 2500 levels.
[338]
And as soon as the coronavirus problem
[341]
came into the forefront,
the stock tanked and it made a low
[345]
of approximately 1750-
1800 levels.
[347]
Right.
[348]
And that was a time when I stocked insane amount
of HUL stocks in my portfolio.
[352]
Why?
Because HUL, number one is a defensive
[356]
stock. Defensive stock means that it
is a type of a stock whose products you
[361]
would continue to use
irrespective of the pandemic.
[364]
And you tell me that did you use
the HUL shampoos? You did.
[366]
Right.
[367]
You used Sunsilk.
[368]
Did you use the other commodity,
good products that HUL manufactures?
[371]
The answer is yes,
you continued to invest in those products.
[374]
Point I'm trying to make is that just
because of pandemic, this company did not go bad.
[378]
You should have picked up a lot of stocks
when the prices of such a stock fell.
[382]
Right. Now, you might ask me a very
[384]
important question that, hey, Akshat,
are you a net buyer in HUL even now
[388]
when the stock is currently trading
at 2366?
[391]
The answer is no. I actually sold majority
of my holdings for HUL now.
[395]
But back when the pandemic hit,
HUL was a defensive stock.
[399]
So I invested a lot of money
because the market was falling.
[402]
Since the market was falling,
I picked up defensive stock.
[405]
Now the markets are rising.
[407]
So I have picked up aggressive stocks.
[409]
I'll talk more about this in part 3,
but I hope you get the point that pick up
[412]
fundamentally good stocks,
but also analyze the cycle.
[415]
As I was explaining you in point one,
[417]
many times, people just simply look
at the fundamentals of the stock,
[421]
pick that stock irrespective of what
is going on in the macroeconomy.
[424]
That is the wrong way of investing.
[426]
So I hope you take this
important lesson away,
[428]
when I mix point one and point two.
[430]
Now, this brings me to point number three,
that what other strategies have I used
[433]
in the last one year that has
helped me make money?
[436]
As I identified that we were in a bull run,
[438]
I started investing a lot of money
in mid-cap and small cap stocks.
[441]
Why?
Because these are aggressive stocks.
[444]
Aggressive stocks.
Right.
[446]
So I moved my portfolio from defensive
stocks to aggressive stocks.
[450]
So let me give you two
examples from my portfolio.
[452]
So one company that I purchased,
it's called Finolex.
[455]
In fact, I'm a net investor even now in this
company because I feel that the company
[459]
can actually become really
good going forward.
[461]
So I produce Finolex back in December
[463]
when it was trading at approximately 130
levels and now the stock price is trading
[467]
at 173,
which gives me massive returns.
[470]
Now, if you ask me why
did I buy Finolex?
[472]
So let me explain it
to you very, very simply
[474]
why did I do that?
[474]
Now, let me just take you
to my analysis very quickly.
[477]
So if you check that as I was moving
my portfolio from Large-Cap to mid-cap
[482]
to small cap, as you can see
that this was a mid-cap company.
[485]
This was not a large cap company.
[486]
It was fundamentally strong.
[488]
And I'll show you why.
This stock's P/E
[491]
even today, it's at 21.9.
[493]
When I bought Finolex,
[494]
the stock P/E back then was
somewhere around 15.
[497]
Now comes the most interesting bit,
because you might ask me that hey,
[500]
Akshat, since you are so sure that you
have started the Bull run,
[503]
why did you not buy Finolex
back in March or April itself?
[506]
Why did you wait till December?
[507]
The reason was I was waiting
[509]
for the financial results to kick in,
because what happens is during a pandemic,
[512]
several mid-cap and small cap
stocks get so beaten down,
[516]
so beaten down, that the company
itself evaporates.
[518]
So I was just waiting to check whether
the small cap and mid-cap companies
[522]
that I've identified, will they continue
to thrive in the market or not?
[526]
So now if you take a look at it now,
back in March 2020, the results were
[531]
766 in terms
of revenues. Of course,
[534]
in June it will fall down because of the
pandemic's impact. Again in September,
[538]
that would be the case.
But look at the December numbers.
[540]
These were the numbers I was waiting for,
that the sales actually went up, right?
[544]
The profits actually went up right.
[546]
The net profits actually went up.
[547]
So this indicates that despite
[549]
the pandemic, this mid-cap and small
cap company did not suffer.
[553]
Let me show you one final thing about
Finolex that will convince you that,
[556]
hey, if you do fundamental analysis
well, there is a lot of money to be made.
[560]
So check this right,
check the level of Finolex
[563]
back in March 2020,
this was existing at approximately 80
[566]
rupees at its prime just
before the pandemic,
[569]
it used to trade at 120ish rupees.
[572]
Right now, what happened is that you
saw that the results were announced.
[577]
Good results were announced
when? In sometimes in December.
[580]
What was the trading price then?
[581]
It was approximately hundred.
Right.
[584]
So even if you would have made major
[585]
investment, that is when I made
a major investment in Finolex.
[589]
The stock price after that went up.
Why?
[591]
Because see, there was a lot
of positive results coming in.
[594]
So, of course, other investors will
also start getting attracted to it.
[598]
Resultantly, I also got attracted to it.
[600]
I made a lot of investments
and a lot of money in the process.
[603]
Doing this type of historic comparison is
[605]
very, very easy and useful tool for you
to make money in the stock market.
[609]
Now, the fourth tip that
I have for you in terms
[611]
of making money in the stock market is to
do something called sectoral investing.
[615]
Now, what happens is
that if you take a look at
[617]
any major bank or finance company
[620]
the moment pandemic hit,
they were the first one to go down.
[623]
Now, you can check this by analyzing
[625]
the stock price of the biggest bank
in India, which is the HDFC Bank.
[628]
So now let's look at the
performance of HDFC Bank.
[631]
Now, just before the pandemic,
[632]
the stock was trading at approximately
1257 and it tanked to 830ish.
[639]
That was the level of fall. So it fell
by approximately 35-40 percent.
[643]
That's what the largest bank in India.
[645]
Now, if you pick industries like asset
management companies, insurance companies,
[649]
banks, these are the first
one to fall in any pandemic.
[652]
And they are also the first one
to recover after any pandemic.
[656]
So if you take a look at the rise
of HDFC Bank once the pandemic was over
[660]
and that Bull run began,
take a look at what point it hit?
[664]
Approximately 1600 levels.
[666]
That is the level of growth HDFC Bank has
[669]
shown, and that is the range,
the HDFC bank has shown.
[671]
Now, if were an intelligent investor
and you identified that, hey, you know
[675]
what bull run is happening, what type
of stock should you have invested in?
[678]
You should have invested in finance
stocks in India, especially banks.
[682]
Should you have invested in HDFC,
probably, yes.
[685]
But I'll show you something better.
[686]
So I ended up making massive investments
[689]
in a company called as Equitas Holding,
which runs Equitas finance bank.
[693]
Now, let's take a look at the portfolio.
[696]
What happened in the last five years
[697]
for equities holding because it's,
again, a small finance bank.
[701]
And you can check that quality wise,
this is really good.
[703]
There is no default probability.
[705]
Quality checks are in place.
[706]
Growth scores are very high.
[708]
Then what happened?
If you take a look at it,
[710]
don't look at these overall returns,
[712]
this is pointless because it depends
on when you're investing in the stocks.
[715]
So we are looking at approximately this
range that the stock price was trading at
[718]
45 back in March
[720]
approximately, and now it's
trading at 94.
[723]
So there has been a more than a hundred
[724]
percent return on this stock already,
now till what point this is likely to go up?
[729]
In my opinion, this stock will
reach its pre-pandemic levels easily.
[733]
So I started accumulating this stock
in large quantities from December because
[737]
again I was waiting for the results,
but I made a lot of investment in small
[741]
finance banks. I also bought
Ujjivan small finance.
[744]
But unfortunately, that stock hasn't
given me as excellent returns as Equitaa\s.
[748]
But the point I'm trying to prove is
that if you do sectoral based investing,
[752]
given the market dynamics,
you will make a lot of money.
[755]
So these were some of the assets
[756]
that helped me make a lot
of returns in the last one year.
[759]
But I also need to tell you
[760]
that there were certain assets that I
completely avoided in order to free up
[764]
my money so that I can make
these smart investments.
[766]
So what investments did
not invest in? Number one,
[769]
I did not keep a lot of money
in my savings account because savings
[772]
account has a very poor rate
of interest that is given.
[776]
Number two, I did not invest
a lot of money in my F.Ds.
[779]
I literally had zero money in F.Ds,
[781]
this time around because I freed up all
the money and I rather invested
[784]
that at the start of bull
run in the equity market.
[787]
Number three, I did not
invest in any index funds.
[791]
I'll make a separate video on index funds.
[793]
Index funds are great.
[794]
But the problem with index fund is that,
for example, if I would have purchased
[798]
index funds, let me go
back to my Nifty chart again.
[801]
If I would have invested my index fund
[803]
even here, I would have been sitting
on a lot of profit, no doubt.
[806]
But the problem is that when
do I sell the index fund?
[809]
Because I would have had enough profits,
[811]
even at 11000 level, I would
have had enough profit at 13000 level.
[815]
I would have enough
profits at 15000 levels.
[817]
Once I sell it again,
can I enter back into an index fund?
[820]
No, it's not that easy because I'll
keep waiting for the market to fall.
[824]
This is called as reinvestment risk.
Right?
[826]
So I'll write it down.
[829]
This is called as reinvestment risk,
[833]
that the market is already high
[835]
and you have sold your investment,
where do you invest next?
[837]
So that becomes a slight problem for you
if you only play the index investing game.
[841]
So I did not make any of these investments.
[843]
I'd rather invest in individually
and stocks through Smallcases
[846]
and instruments like that, which helped me
make a lot of money in the last one year.
[851]
So I hope you enjoyed this video.
Please give it a thumbs up.
[853]
It would motivate me to continue
shooting these videos.
[856]
Please share it with your friends
and share it on LinkedIn.
[858]
I will personally do a Q&A session
[860]
with my community members who have
been active in terms of supporting me.
[863]
I will try to get feedback
[865]
for the channel, how we can grow it,
how we can together grow as a family,
[868]
and what other things that I can do
for you that will help you out in terms
[871]
of helping you improve in your career
and helping you make more money.
[874]
So thank you so much for watching
and I hope you enjoyed this video.
Most Recent Videos:
You can go back to the homepage right here: Homepage