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Crash? HAHA.. Stock Market Analysis | S&P 500 Outlook | Stocks to buy Now - YouTube
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hi friends you guys have been hearing me
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mentioning v-shape recovery
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multiple times for over a month so true
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enough it happened
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i was probably the very few people
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shouting v-shaped
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while everybody else was saying the
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crash
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worse than the 0.809 crisis is going to
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happen
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you have been asking me what's my
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thought process behind it and how i got
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it right
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so i'm pretty sure the stock market is
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not delusional like what
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everybody's saying so in this video i'm
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just going to cover why do i think the
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stock market
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will go up and supporting it with facts
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i run businesses not like some
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e-commerce crap that you keep
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hearing about online
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i run real manufacturing businesses and
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other real business running the ground
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daily
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not some random dude with no experience
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you've seen my other videos you know
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what i'm talking about
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it's going to be a little bit technical
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compared to my usual stuff
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because it's really difficult and i do
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not know how to simply
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simplify this any further so be prepared
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to be bored
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we'll cover both the fundamental and
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technical these videos like that take me
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many hours to plan out so do consider
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helping me click the like button
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if you think it's helpful it means the
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world to me
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so i'll start with the easy one first
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the technical
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chart this is the s p 500 chart and the
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s p
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500 chart kind of like signifies the
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health of the stock market in the u.s
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so you can see it's a v shape so i'm
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going to just go really in depth into
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where i think the stock market will go
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as usual i always draw my support and
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resistance lines
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and i'm just going to draw a line now
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okay so
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this is a very very significant line
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which i think
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you need to focus on okay this line
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across here
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i'm going to zoom in further how am i
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going to position this line
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is just at this rate candle the tip of
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this red candle why
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this rate candle tip is because you see
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the stock market
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performing a v it goes up and it kind of
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like is hitting a resistance it can't
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seem
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to break through and i thought actually
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on monday
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uh the stock market was going to break
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through after a big gap up but it's kind
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of like
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you know 50 50 on this line my thought
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process
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is if there is a full candle bar let me
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draw a full candle bar here
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if there is a full candle bar and it
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looks something like this
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uh
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yeah it looks something like a full
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candle bar above this line here
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i foresee the stock market climbing
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climbing really high
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to the all-time highs if it doesn't
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break this line here
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i don't see the market going i still see
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it moving sideways
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okay maybe it's slightly down but once
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you break this line i
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am like 90 sure nothing's 100 but i'm 90
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sure that the stock market will just
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keep climbing upwards because
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this resistance line here has been quite
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a pain in the ass
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and if you extend this line out if you
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realize that
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this this this line here it was like
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when the stock market was hovering
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around here and when it broke downwards
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boom the thing went drastically so this
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line is a very strong
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line of support and resistance for the
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stock market
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so if i see a full candle above this
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line here
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i believe there's a 90 chance that the
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stock market will continue going upwards
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for the
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long term i hope the technical trust has
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given you some clarity
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so in this information age we live in we
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get overloaded with information i
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analyze and connect
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all the dots to come to this conclusion
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you see
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i believe in one thing don't always
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follow the crowd there is this
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80 20 rule that i applied to my life if
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you are doing
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what 80 of people are doing you will be
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the
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80 percent i'm not too sure what is your
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individual
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preference is but you know my choice i
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know my choice
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during the 0809 crisis i remember
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talking to my dad while walking in a
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shopping center
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heading for a cup of tea he said this to
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me at that point of time
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it's time to invest i looked at him and
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i was like are you crazy
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so the lesson is always listen to people
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with more experience
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no matter how wrong it seems at first
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experience is always worth a lot
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so of course today i always take
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investment advice from him every now and
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then
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talking about it i'm missing my gym
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sessions with him due to this lockdown
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this flow 19 really sucks anyway this is
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the latest from the federal reserve he
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said
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we are not out of ammunition by a long
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shot and there was no limit to what the
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fed can do
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let me paint you this visually imagine
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there's a diamond
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in the middle of the room and plenty of
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people are
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bidding for the diamond and the central
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banks come in the fed
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walks in and say if the price of the
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diamond drops i will buy it
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i want you to take a moment here pause
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here
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just think about this for the next five
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seconds what's going to happen
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that's right the diamond price will keep
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going up because
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everybody knows the fed will buy if the
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diamond price drop
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well one day the central banks are going
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to come in and say hey look everything
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seems
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fine now and the economy is doing very
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well the diamond price is stable
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so goodbye the central banks has
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essentially put in zero money
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zero and raised the diamond price so now
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think of the diamond as the stock market
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to me this is the simplest way i can put
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this across to you does it make sense to
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you
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the central banks raise the stock price
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without actually putting
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money in freaking blowing
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[Music]
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[Laughter]
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[Music]
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i will also cover some important
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indicators that makes me
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bullish let's look at the business side
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first one of the biggest reasons
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resection lasts so long is because of
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out of control inventories imagine
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businesses just piling on
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on stock a lot of inventories so they
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pull up a hit of consumption speculating
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there'll be tons of demand and consumers
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will show up and keep buying and buying
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so when business holds a ton of
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inventory this is a really big problem
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where we enter a recession too much
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stock taking a look at this chart if you
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look at a
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dot-com bubble business were holding a
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lot of inventories before the recession
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and same for the 0809 crisis they're
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holding a lot of stock
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but if you look at here just recently
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what happened
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businesses weren't holding a lot of
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inventories they were actually quite low
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on inventories we were on the other side
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of that because we were
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facing so much tensions and on trade
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wars and uncertainty many businesses
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were conservative and kept their
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inventories
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low you guys know i run the
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manufacturing business my inventories
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was at an all-time low in fact after 20
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years of operation it was
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at all time low i'm sure many business
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owners will agree on this
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and this sets up for a very v-shaped
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recovery when the consumer
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reappears businesses will need to
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scramble
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back up and keep up with consumption so
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i'm actually kind of like seeing this in
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the beginnings in china
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already my china suppliers are actually
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feeding back this information to me
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directly
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this is a very good gauge where capital
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spending is going
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capital expenditure commonly known as
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capex
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are funds used by a company to acquire
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upgrade and maintain physical assets
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such as property buildings industrial
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plant and technology
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equipment so capex is often used to
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undertake new projects or investments
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of a company so in this case like all
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the three companies i invested in mainly
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tesla square in lumina
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you see them continuing to reinvest in
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the business and spending on growth
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in fact kovi has accelerated their plans
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i didn't see this back in oani crisis
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plenty of companies were slashing their
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capex
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so in oa09 every sector was hit
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but in this crisis no not all sectors
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was hit
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see like oil consumables retail real
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estate tourism these are hit
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really bad but there are two sectors
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that stand out
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this is not my first time mentioning
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this in this crisis but
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tech and life science sector has
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accelerated
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so all three to five years of progress
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accelerated into a few months
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for example with eu probably removing
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text from electric vehicles
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that will accelerate electric vehicle
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adoption faster than i thought
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it's such a big thing for information
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you know i'm bullish but this crisis has
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given me
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goosebumps on how much quicker the
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adoption will be
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and the same applies to the other two
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companies i'm invested in square and
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illumina
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both i already did videos off previously
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there are tons of demand for me to do
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part two of illumina
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so i'll publish it next so by far this
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video has the highest demand
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and on that notification bell to know
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when i publish that video
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so now let's look on the site of people
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this is the united states personal
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savings rate we look at the savings rate
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before
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the dot-com bubble and before the oat
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crisis
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both the dot-com and the oe crisis the
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savings
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rate was quite low and people really
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didn't have much money going into the
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recession
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but if you're looking at this whole flow
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19 situation you look at the
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savings rate was much higher than back
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then
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in the 08 and the dot-com bubble so
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people had a lot of money in the bank
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this recession people had significantly
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more savings going into this recession
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probably because people got smarter this
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time
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the next thing we need to look at is the
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united states personal spending
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previously was the
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savings the united states spending rate
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is just
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epic never before in the worst crisis of
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the century which is like the oa09
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has such a drastic drop in spending
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nobody is spending and yet so much money
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is generated
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you must be thinking where is all the
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money
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at so putting all the facts together if
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there are
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plenty of savings up here and spending
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is just
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below all the way down guess where the
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money
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is going people are going to invest that
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money
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people got smarter companies are crazily
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spending on capex
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and the three companies i'm invested in
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are going full throttle and
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in fact increasing capex business
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inventories are at
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all time low businesses will need to
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scramble for production when demands
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pick up
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and this is the perfect setup for a
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v-shaped recovery
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so to add to a kicker remember the story
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i tell you about the fat the central
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banks buying into the diamond
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the stock market is not detached from
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reality
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it is reality not piecing all the
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information together look i'm not saying
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that it's going to be a straight line up
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no stock goes up in one straight line
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there's always a zigzag up
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maybe there will be some corrections
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along the way if there is
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behind to them i'm very sure if you play
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the
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long game and don't sell on weakness you
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will do
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very very well buying to innovative
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companies crisis like this will
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accelerate the growth
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and gives me and gives me goose bumps
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just to think about it
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so investing in innovation is the most
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proven method since like forever
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it is the oldest form of investing that
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can withstand the test of time
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i did a video on my two criterias of how
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i choose these companies i'll link it up
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here and down below
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so listen to people with more experience
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and have a proven track record
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i hope you guys have better clarity from
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this video i appreciate those who help
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me with the thumbs up
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you guys are awesome invest safe
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you
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