How to RETIRE on Tesla Stock - YouTube

Hello friends, welcome back to the channel. When we invest, we all do it for different

reasons. Mostly for financial freedom, like this. Do the stuff you want to do, live the

life you want, on your own terms. Enjoy a meal by the sea, the sun setting behind you

with a glass of wine. If you want this life. Listen up. This video is a very logical presentation

on how to retire on Tesla stock.

So Why Tesla Stock? very quickly, if you are here for the first time, I’m a Tesla Bull,

most of my wealth is in Tesla. I see a future where Tesla will dominate the world like apple

/ Netflix / amazon, but on a much bigger scale. Tesla is not just a car company but a utility

/ energy / artificial inteligence / life saving / robotics manufacturing company disrupting

the biggest industries. I have a high degree of certainty that Tesla will be the biggest

company in the world very soon.

I’ve done my projections models before in detail, for the sake of simplicity, calculating

free cashflows, revenue growth and total addressable market, by year 2030 base

case of Tesla should be worth 4 Trillon, minimally. My bullish projections seems too stupid at over

10 Trillon so I’m just going to leave it at $4 Trillion. Accounting for share dillution,

a $4100 Tesla price target per share is my worst case. If you want to go into more details,

Frank Peelen, did a fantasic job in his latest post, way better than me. I’ll link it below.

His evaluation models are sick!

Tesla year 2030, my bull case is $11,700 and bear case $4100 per share. Most projections

will take the mid line, but I’m taking a price target of $6900 nearer to my bear case

giving a higher margin of safety. Do note I’m cutting frank peelen’s estimates by

half. I’ve no incentive to inflate the numbers, as I’m doing up this video presentation,

I’m doing it for myself too. My approach is a conservative approach to give a higher

margin of safety.

Financial Independence retire early, in short FIRE is a movement. It means withdraw what

you need from your stocks portfolio for your daily life and invest the rest. This is NOT

a dividend play. Most dividend stocks don’t move much, or worst, down. Investing in high

quality growth companies, the capital gains will surpass dividends received. As your capital

grows, you sell stocks to fund your daily life.

For example, if you have $400,000 invested. And your $400,000 grows at 8% a year, look

I’m taking 8% because I’m benchmarking to the index with a further margin of safety.

While your money grows, you withdraw what you need at $2800 a month for 30 years. Because

the invested capital keeps growing, at the end of 30 years, you still will have $201,000.

Amazing right?

If you decide to withdraw more, $3500 a month. In 18 years, you would have used up all your

money. The goal here is to find a sweet spot.

I’m taking an extreme margin of safety approach to calculate. My audience are from all over

the world and I’ll do up the calculations for you guys. The cost of living differs in

every country and I’ve added a 40% extra cost of living. 40% MORE because we want to

live a comfortable life and not eat instant noodles everyday unless instant noodles makes

you happy. When you’re retired, your cost of living

drops. You do not need to travel as much, entertain as much, socialise as much, okay

that’s subjective, but your cost of living drops when retired. Also you do not work,

there’s no income tax.

Tesla is a high growth manufacturing and software company. 40-60% annual growth rate currently

and by the time Tesla matures, growth rate should look like Apple at about 20%. 20% it’s still

very high. So bench marking Tesla to slow down less then as the SP500, I’m applying

really extreme levels margin of safety.

Most retirement calculation takes only 15 years. Work till you are 65, that is if you

are still alive and die at 80. I think that’s bullshit. I’m doubling it 30 years. Retire

earlier, life is short and make the most meaning out of it.

This is where my audience come from, I’ll do up the calculations for your guys wherever

you’re from and a little extra bonus at the end of it.

For the United States, United Kingdom and Australia, your living cost is roughly the

same. You will need $375,000 to live a very comfortable life. With $375,000 invested in Tesla

stocks magically manage to give you donkey returns at 8% a year. Do note everything here

is in USD. Cost of living $1951. As mentioned I added 40% extra so we live a good life.

With $375,000 invested and withdrawals of $2731 a month every month of the next 30 years.

At the end of 30 years, you will have $30,726. That translate to 54.34 Tesla shares needed

at $6900. Assuming my worst case scenario, you’ll need 91.46 shares of Tesla stock

to retire very comfortably with a high margin of safety. Does 54 shares sound difficult?

Or 91 shares sound difficult? That’s for you to decide. Let me know below if it’s

hard. Or you guys already own more than 54 shares?

In Singapore, one of the most expensive cities in the world to live. Houses are stupid expensive,

cars are stupid expensive. You’ll need 60 Tesla shares or 100 Tesla shares depending

on how much you spend. I personally believe we can retire on much less if we live in government

estate and take public transport. It’s still a damm good life.

I’ll put Germany Netherlands Hong Kong Sweden New Zealand in the same catorgy as Canada.

I mean, Germany cost of living is $1400 USD a month to retire? My Germany friends, is

that true? I think anything less than $1700 USD is cutting it pretty tight unless you

go to developing nations. Living in Canada, $325,000 with an average annual return of

8%, cost of living $1701 + 40% is $2381. You will be withdrawing $2381 USD a month for

the next 30 years, you will end up with $5566. At $6900 per share, you’ll only need 47 shares

or 79 shares if stock pirce remains low in 2030.

This is the bonus, I’ve be in Europe for a while. I do see the appeal on why the Europeans

like to come Asia, the predictable temperatures, cost of living, the sun etc. I get it. Lots

of expats move to Thailand or Bali or even singapore to live a good life. If you decide

to go Bali, you’ll only need 20 tesla shares. Translate back to today’s stock price. Even

my donkey can afford it.

Concluding, is it possible to retire on Tesla Stock, in this new era, easy yes. Will Tesla

stock survive the next 10 - 20 years? Not only Tesla will survive, Tesla will Thrive.

There’s risk in everything, it’s all about risk management and the risk of Tesla going

to zero is close to none. Did you enjoy such videos, do let me know. Appreciate a thumbs

up, it helps a ton to spread the word, as always, invest safe.