What could a no-deal Brexit actually mean for YOU? - YouTube

Theresa May’s Brexit deal has been voted down by MPs -meaning we’re getting closer

and closer to a no-deal Brexit.

But what could no-deal Brexit actually mean for you?

So you wake up on March 30th 2019 and the UK has just left the EU.

The plan was to have a deal in place by the time we left - making sure our exit was nice

and smooth, with a transition period helping to ease us out of the union.

I know we can get a deal that delivers for Britain.

We will be able to reach a deal that will work for us and work for them.

I’m absolutely confident we’re going to get a good deal with the EU.

But now, none of that is in place - so what the hell is going to happen?

One of the first questions would be - what about the UK border?

If there's no agreement about customs checks, there could be big delays.

Lorries that used to be waved through will probably now need their details checked.

That’s one truck?

That’s one truck of what we, as customs clearing agents in Dover and the UK do.

In a no-deal scenario, you’re looking at 100% worth of checks like this?

Yes.

Could you cope with that?

No.

According to the freight industry, that could mean queues of up to 17 miles at the Port

of Dover.

Because of that, there are fears it could disrupt deliveries of food and medicine coming

into the UK.

However, the Deputy Mayor of Calais has said that on the French side, they have been preparing

for no deal for over a year.

And he says there will definitely be no delays at the border in the event of no deal.

Now, problems at the ports are one thing.

But there could be even bigger problems at the land border between Northern Ireland and

the Republic of Ireland.

There used to be a physical border here, with customs checks.

But for many Irish nationalists, this was seen as a symbol of British occupation.

All those barriers were removed as part of the Northern Ireland peace process.

So, for many on both sides of the border, putting barriers up once again would feel

like a return to the troubles of the past.

But the EU has said that if there’s no Brexit deal, there’d be no alternative to a “hard

border”.

So on top of all the trade delays a no-deal Brexit could cause - there’s also the possibility

of renewed violence.

- There is real potential for trouble of extremists wanting to exploit the chaos of a possible

no-deal Brexit?

Yeah, well we’ve seen that time and time again where there is an issue, no matter what

the issue is in Northern Ireland, that people do tend to come onto the streets. For either

a short period of time or a more protracted period of time. And that we do see some serious

public order - and indeed terrorist-related violence - as a result of that.

Now, what if you've booked a flight to Europe - but then we have a no-deal Brexit?

Well, airlines will lose their automatic right to fly between Britain and EU member states.

Authorities would need to try to reach some sort of an agreement on air travel so that

planes could carry on landing in other countries.

The EU has said there is an emergency plan in place to ensure some air routes continue

operating in the event of a no-deal. So hopefully your holiday plans won’t be affected.

And also, the UK government would try and get a more comprehensive agreement - while

EU countries, they still want to fly here, so it’s in their interests to keep the airspace

open.

But if things don’t go to plan, it could result in planes being grounded - meaning

you won’t be able to take off, and could be left stranded.

Now, what about those of you waking up in the UK on March 30th who are EU citizens?

Well, your status in the UK will eventually change after a couple of years. Although that

would happen regardless of whether we leave with a deal or not.

That's because freedom of movement will end - so EU citizens will no longer have an automatic

right to live and work here.

Similarly, Brits who live in Europe will also lose those rights - as well as losing your

guarantee of free healthcare in the EU.

And on top of that, the value of your UK state pension could be at risk down the line.

However, before you start panicking, the government has said there is no need to worry.

That’s because, if you're an EU citizen living in the UK, you can apply for Settled

Status for £65.

So, providing you can prove you live here and that you're not a security threat, all

of your current rights and privileges will be protected.

Once you’ve got Settled Status, you can carry on living here just like before.

EU countries are also in the process of announcing similar schemes for Brits living abroad.

But what other changes are you likely to notice?

Well, perhaps the biggest risk of a no-deal Brexit is the potential shock to the economy.

The Bank of England thinks the value of the pound will tumble, the economy will shrink

- and that it’ll be even worse than the 2008 financial crash.

The country is not yet fully prepared for a cliff-edge Brexit.

Now that's based on a lot of detailed predictions - but remember, they have sometimes been wrong

before.

A big part of our economy is our trading relationship with Europe.

Being in the EU means that we can buy and sell goods with EU countries without paying

tariffs at the border.

But if there’s no deal, Britain would have to treat all countries equally - whether they're

in the EU or not - that’s according to rules set by the World Trade Organisation, the WTO.

So what does that mean? Well, take cabbages for example.

Under WTO rules, we could introduce charges on cabbages coming into the UK from the EU.

That means cabbages - and other food - would get more expensive for me and you.

On the other hand, it might be good for the British farming industry - because it would

make their cabbages more competitive.

Alternatively, we could just set extra charges really low - or even at zero percent.

But because we now have to treat all countries equally - that would apply to the whole world.

So, on the plus side, that might help keep food prices low for consumers, like you.

But it would also mean that British farmers might be undercut by competitors from around

the world.

And, don’t forget, because of issues at the border that we spoke about before, EU

countries importing stuff to the UK might face extra paperwork and customs checks.

That all costs money - and it’s likely that you, the consumer, would have to foot the

bill.

So will there be chaos if we leave without a deal?

Not necessarily.

The government has been preparing for this for a while - and it says contingency plans

are in place.

For instance, there's an airfield near the Port of Dover which will be converted into

a lorry park - and companies have been hired to run extra ferry services to carry goods.

Those measures are designed to ease congestion at one of Britain’s busiest ports.

The government has also announced plans to stockpile medicines and fly in vital supplies

if necessary.

- The stockpiling is going to be done by pharmaceutical companies and we will support them, and are

supporting them, in doing that.

A lot depends on whether the government will be able to strike so-called "mini-deals" on

different aspects of life after a no-deal Brexit.

These would be separate, stand-alone agreements to solve problems like air traffic, or congestion

at the borders.

But the EU has insisted it will only agree to basic emergency measures - allowing some

flights and cross-border trade for a limited time.

And don’t forget that many MPs, they really don’t want a no-deal Brexit and have said

they will try to ensure it doesn’t happen.

In January, for example, Labour and Tory MPs came together to defeat the government and

give MPs more control in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

I do also feel, having spent the past six or seven months on the backbenches talking

to various other backbenchers, that parliament will stop a no deal.

So what about the rest of Brexit?

Most EU law will simply be converted into British law - so it’s unlikely you’ll

notice any sudden changes to the way the way your life is governed.

But there will be one huge constitutional change: EU institutions will immediately cease

to have any say in how the UK is run - so every future decision will come straight from

our Parliament.

So that’s how a no-deal Brexit could affect you, come March 30th - what do you think?

Is it really that bad - or will things work out better than predicted?

Let us know in the comments below - and tell us anything you’re confused about as Brexit

Day approaches.