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Betting strategy that works - How to always win at betting in the long run - YouTube
Channel: Bet Angel
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please like and comment on the video
below that will allow me to produce
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better quality videos and more of them
in the future if you're interested in
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learning to trade successfully in sports
then why not visit the BET angel'
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Academy where we have more detailed
videos so if you're looking at a betting
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market the only way that you can make
money in the longer term is by backing
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at odds that are above the implied
chance of that particular event
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occurring so if you can back a football
team and that has a 50% chance of
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winning but the bookmakers gonna give
you odds that represent a value above
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that you will make money in the longer
term the way that bookmakers make money
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is by offering the odds that just don't
represent value or the true chance of
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something happening in order to
understand that properly you need to
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really understand what the odds mean so
that's what we're going to explore in
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this video what we're actually going to
do here is we're going to take
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fractional odds we're going to convert
them to decimal odds and then convert
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that to implied chance so you can
actually see and understand exactly what
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value is or isn't being created when you
place a bet now the problem that most
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people have when they place a bet is
they're just placing a bet to win all
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that they do is stick a tenner on
something because they think it's going
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to win there's no concept of value in
there whatsoever but by understanding
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odds you will get to understand value
and therefore you will be able to place
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more sensible bets so let's have a look
and see how odds are constructed so you
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may go into a market and you may see
odds quoted at something like 9 to 4 so
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we're going to have to use a spreadsheet
here but I'm going to use a spreadsheets
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to show you the calculations that I'm
doing and how I'm arriving at the
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conclusion that I am so you can see at 9
to 4 if you put a tenner at 94 what what
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does that mean what does 9 for mean and
basically when you're looking at
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fractional odds you're looking at a
ratio so if you put 4 pounds down you
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will win 9 pan back that's the easiest
way to understand fractional odds for
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pan down you get 9 pan back of course
with your tenner and that makes no sense
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because you're gonna put a tenner down
how much you're gonna get back so
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effectively what you're looking at with
fractional odds is a ratio so if I
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actually go in here and type in a
calculation if I do 9 divided by 4
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it's a basically a ratio 2.25 times your
stake you will get returned so if you
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put 100 pan down you'll get to point two
to five times back what you have
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originally state so that's the way the
fractional odds work what you're viewing
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when you're looking at fractional odds
is a ratio so one hundred thirty six two
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four five two four seven two four and
ninety-four all of those things are
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ratios based upon how much the bookmaker
is willing to pay you based upon the
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stake that you give him now when you
look at a betting exchange they tend to
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not use fractional odds and now if you
move your mouse over the odds you it
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will very often give you a comparison of
fractional odds so you can actually do a
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direct comparison between fractional and
decimal but let's have a look at how you
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would and convert a fractional odds to a
decimal and then into an implied chance
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because that's the most important part
of what we're going to do so if we look
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at odds of 94 you can see what I've done
here is I've done I'm nine divided by
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four equals 225 to convert it to decimal
all you need to do then is add one to it
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so if you're looking at odds of nine to
four and the ratio is 225 and it means
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the decimal odds will be 325 so if you
go on to the exchange that you're going
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to use and you see odds of 325 that is
nine to four basically but what does
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that actually mean is that a value bet
if we saw a football team price priced
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at 325 is it value or not and how do we
know that that is the case so if we go
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in to the spreadsheet again and I do 1/3
25 you can see that that comes out at
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point three oh seven seven so what is
that number that number is actually a
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percentage to make it easier to
understand if I click on it and then
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click on the percentage on the
spreadsheet then you can see that this
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is basically saying that 325 represents
a thirty point seven seven percent
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chance of this event actually going on
and occurring so for the sake of
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completeness what I'll do over here is
if I just do 1/3 25 sorry one divided by
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the percentage
you can see we can flip it back the
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other way so to get this percentage I
did one divided by the odds and if
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you've got a percentage then you can
actually do 1 divided by the percentage
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to get the odds and convert it back in
the other direction so if we're going to
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place a back bet at odds of 325 we're
saying that we think the thing where
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were backing has a thirty point seven
seven percent chance of winning but
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let's say that for example that we think
that it's got a 40 percent chance of
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winning so I'm going to go in here and
type in 0.40 which you can see the
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spreadsheet is updated from is forty
percent if I now do 1 divided by 0.4 oh
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that cell over there can you see it
comes out it's two and a half so what
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we're saying is we think the chance of
this event occurring this this election
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winning is forty percent which would
mean that we're willing to accept odds
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down to two point five any odds below
two point five it becomes a lay bet if
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the odds are above two point five then
it becomes a back about why well if we
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look at this we think it's got a 40%
chance of winning we've done all of our
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stats food and all of our maths
we've religiously thought through the
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whole thing we've really focused on it
and looked at it in great depth and
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we've come up to the conclusion that
there's a 40 percent chance of this
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happening
however the bookmaker thinks there's
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only a 30% chance so if we do 40 percent
minus that 30 percent can you see that
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says nine point two to three that's
saying that actually we have a nine
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percent edge here effectively if our
maths is correct if our theory is
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correct then we think it's got a 40
percent chance were convinced that it's
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got a 40 percent chance of winning and
the bookmaker has got his odds wrong so
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we do actually have some margin there if
we can back at 325 when we think it's
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true odds should be at 2.5 we're going
to make money there however let's change
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these odds up here if we say we're now
looking at five to four we'll go through
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the same process again so if I go into
this cell and I do five divided by four
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and then we add one to it can you see
the odds come out it's 225 so this is
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now saying that the market thinks
there's a forty four percent chance of
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this particular event occurring this
person wing or this team winning
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whatever the market you're looking at
and yet we've said there's a 40 percent
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chance and it's 225 and you can see that
number is turned negative here so we
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think it's got a forty percent chance of
winning which equals to 25 we're willing
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to back down to odd we will place a back
bet if we get odds at 2.5 or greater
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however if something is at five to four
the market is offering it to us at 2.25
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it's below our threshold there's no
reason that we should place the back bit
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in this market in fact you may even want
to consider placing a lay bet in this
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particular market because the odds are
just no good there so the thing you'd
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have to say is is that 4% margin enough
am i confident enough that I think that
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my guess for want of a better word my
model is a better word is accurate
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enough that I know that I've got a 4%
edge in this particular market in which
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case you would lay but basically when
you go into a market this is what you're
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saying you're saying okay you know
Manchester United are playing this tight
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team if they played them 10 times they
would win four of those games and that's
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where your 40% is coming from and if you
if you can come up with the reason why
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that is definitely going to happen given
all of the circumstances the team then
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use the weather fixtures they've got
coming up and you think they're going to
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win four out of ten of the next matches
then that would be how you come up with
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that forty percent figure you can
convert that forty percent figure to
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odds and then see if those odds are
available so on this occasion it isn't
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but if we go in and we modify the odds
that are being offered here we're
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offering ten to four which then resolves
at a ratio of two and a half which
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converts to decimal odds of three point
five zero obviously if you can if you
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were willing to back a team that's two
point five the markets offering you
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three point five then it necessarily
makes a lot of sense to back it but the
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most important thing by understanding
the way that these odds are created and
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the way that you can convert them is
this tells you that according to your
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model that has a 40% chance of winning
you have an 11
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edge here and therefore it's worth
placing the back bet and obviously if
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you want to make money in the long term
on any betting market you need an edge
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and you need a definable edge and one
that delivers as much margin as possible
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so you could assess a whole range of
bets see which one has the biggest
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theoretical margin and then go for that
particular bet and if you do have an
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edge and you have priced the market
correctly and better than the market has
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then over time while you may not win on
this particular event or the next one
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over a long long period of time if
you've got an edge of this sort of
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magnitude in the market then you
definitely will make money
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you
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